As I keep warning, the $USD has formed a “false breakout” to the upside.
A false breakout occurs when an asset breaks out of a consolidation pattern, only to reverse. The reason why this development is so dangerous is because the reversal is typically both sharp AND violent as momentum chasers and trend-based algorithms “panic sell.”
That process is now unfolding for the $USD. It has already given up its entire “breakout” move and is about to fall back into its former trading range.
This is just the beginning. The Bank of Japan is preparing to start hiking rates. The ECB is about to end its QE program. And the Fed going to be ending its hawkishness in the near future.
ALL of these are VERY $USD negative.
The fact is that while everyone is focusing on the near-term, in the long-term the $USD is forming a clear Head and Shoulders top.
That’s a heck of a “tell” from the markets. And it’s “telling” us that we’re about to see a major inflationary move as the $USD drops hard.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research