The markets are closed today in the U.S. in honor of President’s day.
While the mainstream media continues fearmongering, assuring us that coronavirus or some other issue will soon crash the stock market, stocks are signaling something else completely.
As I write this on Monday morning, the futures market has soared to new all-time highs. This marks the 11th new all-time high in 2020 alone. The fact that stocks continue to make new highs despite negative developments is incredibly bullish.
Remember, stocks are a discounting mechanism. And they are the most accurate forecaster of future events in history. So, this raises the question… what is the stock market discounting?
I believe the market is discounting a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020, followed by an economic boom in the U.S.
The fact is that for 20 odd years, the U.S. has been relatively weak from an economic perspective. Most of the economic growth was driven by asset bubbles, not a growth in incomes or innovation.
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Beyond the internet, what major innovation of the last 20 years can we point to? Social media hasn’t increased productivity in any meaningful way. Crypto-currencies are just another investing fad driven by excess liquidity. Sure, computers are faster… but has anything truly revolutionary occurred?
The answer is no.
I believe this will change in the coming months and years. The combination of the Trump administration’s regulation cutting, and the Fed’s monetary easing, is going to provide risk-takers, entrepreneurs, and innovators with a unique environment in which new, revolutionary ideas can truly ignite.
This is what U.S. stocks began to discount when they broke of two-year consolidation range in mid-2019. At that it was evident that the impeachment farce would go nowhere and that the Fed finally began to ease again.
This is going to ignite a global melt-up. The U.S. is the largest economy in the world with a GPD equal to that of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest economies combined.
Which is why U.S. stocks were the first to ignite to the upside. The Global Dow has only just joined in, breaking out of its own two-year consolidation range.
Yes, for the last two years global stocks have gone nowhere. They have only just begun to catch wind of what U.S. stocks figured out six months ago.
I want to be clear here…
I DO NOT care about politics. You can hate President Trump or you can love him. That’s 100% up to you.
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Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research