I want to stress in advance, that I DO NOT want to be political in this briefing. I am not saying I LIKE any of the recent developments. And I’m certainly NOT saying I want a particular candidate to win.
All I am saying is that the election is a mess and from what I can tell, no one in the media is actually outlining what’s to come based on the law. Instead I’m seeing a lot of political opinion, being presented as fact, when it isn’t.
The media wants you to believe the election is over.
By law, it isn’t.
Unless a candidate concedes, the election remains in play until December 14th when states cast their electoral college votes.
So, unless President Trump concedes between now and then, Joe Biden hasn’t won anything, no matter what the media tells you. Indeed, the media has no say in this, anymore than they can decide what color the sky is; they’re simply trying to get you angry so you’ll continue to watch their awful shows so they can sell your eyeballs to advertisers.
With that in mind, we need to take a step back and assess how this election is likely to play out based on the LAW, not public opinion or media propaganda.
Based on the law, it is highly possible and in fact probable that Donald Trump will end up winning the 2020 Presidential election.
Why?
Because the election is now in the courts. And the courts have a clear precedent for how contested elections play out.
When the courts get involved in an election, it becomes an issue of evidence. Specifically, what a given court decides is compelling versus non-compelling evidence, and how the court chooses to address the issue of voter fraud if indeed there is compelling evidence.
For instance, if President Trump’s legal team goes to court and says, “we want to have a vote audit in Michigan because there was voter fraud” the first thing the court will ask them is, “what evidence do you have to support this claim?”
If the President Trump’s legal team’s answer is “we saw some numbers that looked suspicious,” the court controls its urge to laugh, throws out the case, and that’s that.
However, if the President’s legal team responds, “we have sworn affidavits from 50 witnesses, video evidence, as well as three whistleblowers” then it’s a completely different story.
Once evidence of fraud is introduced to the courts via a lawsuit, the court, NOT the voters and certainly NOT the media, is in charge of the election.
The courts can demand a vote audit of every single vote counted in an election. If, during the vote audit, actual fraud is discovered, the court can rule that those votes are no longer valid, the formal vote counts can change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.
Even if fraud is not discovered by the audits, but there is a particular problem with vote cards (the wrong type of ink was used, the hole punch didn’t go all the way through the ballot as was the case in Florida in 2000, etc.), the courts can deem those problematic votes as illegitimate.
This again can mean the formal vote counts can change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.
This process is now underway in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona.
Any one of those states could see Biden end up losing (remember, he only won these states by 0.5% for most of them). That means that if Biden loses even 10,000 votes due to fraud or some technicality (the ballots arrived after the deadline), Trump could be declared the winner.
Again, I am NOT saying I want this to happen. I am simply outlining how this process works. If a court says “jump” you jump, no matter who you are.
Speaking of which…
Two weeks ago, Supreme Court Justice Alito (as in the Supreme Court of the U.S., not of just one state) ORDERED the State of Pennsylvania to segregate and count separately any ballots that arrived after 8PM on election night.
This is a legal order from the Supreme Court of the United States. If you disobey it, you can go to prison. And because it’s a federal violation, the lawsuit isn’t going to be “Joe Schmo vs. John Doe,” it’s “the United States of America vs. Joe Schmo.”
My sources tell me that for Alito to order this without any comment from other justices suggests the Supreme Court as a whole is supportive of his action.
So, this is the Supreme Court of the United States effectively stating, “we are now getting involved in this mess.” That is a big deal.
If you are looking for a reason as to why the media rushed into announcing Joe Biden as the President Elect Saturday (the day after Alito’s order), this is probably it.
The Democrats and their media allies (the media companies that lean left) realize that once the courts get involved, the odds of Biden actually winning drop dramatically. So, they are attempting to mount as much pressure as possible for President Trump to concede so that the election is finished before ever entering a courtroom.
Remember, the only way this election ends right now is if President Trump concedes.
If he doesn’t, but instead chooses to fight in court, then the process follows the path I outlined a little while ago, where the courts decide which votes count and which ones don’t.
For an election in which multiple states were “won” by less than 0.5%, the odds GREATLY improve for President Trump once these issues are introduced in court. He only needs to have 10,000 or so ballots thrown out in order to flip multiple states.
And bear in mind, that if a given court accepts or rejects a given lawsuit, the situation doesn’t end there.
If either party or candidate is dissatisfied with a lower court’s ruling, they can appeal the ruling, which can result in the lawsuit moving up to a higher court, eventually reaching the Supreme Court, which serves as the ultimate arbiter of election law in the U.S.
This was the case with the 2000 Presidential election, when the Supreme Court ruled that vote cards from Florida that didn’t have clean hole punches were NOT valid, which gave the state to George W. Bush and resulted in Al Gore conceding the election on December 13th.
And the Supreme Court’s justices are currently 6-3 conservative to liberal. Even if Roberts were to side with the liberals, the conservatives still hold the 5-4 majority.
Put simply, the ultimate arbiter in court rulings on elections favors Trump. Provided he DOESN’T concede, the odds greatly favor him winning a second term.
That’s what the law and the courts say. And they’re the ones that matter in this situation.
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Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
