By Graham Summers, MBA
I’m getting sick of the lies.
I keep hearing from supposed gurus and commentators (not to mention the White House) that inflation is on the decline… but whenever I go to the grocery store or try to hire someone to fix something at my house or do just about anything other than pay for gas… the price is UP.
Who am I to believe? The establishment or my own eyes and wallet?
This is a MAJOR issue today in America… we are told all the time that something is a certain way… only to find out that it’s not like that at all. And the idea that inflation is going away is one MAJOR lie that hits close to home since it affects our incomes and our lives on a daily basis.
I’ve been one of the few people stating that inflation is not declining for months now. In fact, the only reason the data even rolled over at all was because energy prices fell because the Biden administration dumped 250 MILLION barrels of oil on the markets.
All that accomplished was about three months of declining energy prices. Because the bond market just called “BS” on the idea that inflation is under control.
To whit… the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury… which the Fed tracks to determine where rates need to go… is SPIKING again and about to take out its former highs! This tells us pint blank that inflation is back and if anything the Fed will need to be MUCH MORE aggressive to stop it.
And despite this… and the economy rolling over… and inflation NOT being on the decline… investors poured $1.5 BILLION per day into stocks last month. In fact, from what I can tell, investors are MORE bullish today than they were a year ago! These folks BELIEVE the lies they are being told!
This is the kind of environment in which crashes can happen.
Indeed, my proprietary Crash Trigger is now on the first confirmed “Sell” signal since 2008.
This signal has only registered THREE times in the last 25 years: in 2000, 2008 and today. I’ve illustrated them in the chart below.
The clock is ticking on the markets today… just like it was in 2000 and 2008. Many investors will lose everything… but you don’t have to be one of them.
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