GAINS, PAINS & CAPITAL

Jun

2024

Want to Get Rich From Stocks… Remove These Three Ideas From Your Mind

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Stocks hit new all-time highs last week… but you wouldn’t know it from the mood on social media and financial TV!

It’s truly incredible to watch… the markets have been on a historic run, with the S&P 500 rallying 1,400 points since the November 2023 lows. And yet, throughout this period, the overall mood amongst market participants seems anxious if not outright worried.

Everywhere you look, there’s talk of a potential recession… or concerns about geopolitics… or claims that Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks are in a massive bubble that is about to burst.

And yet, the markets keeps charging higher, with every dip being bought. Those who fretted about the countless number of things that could go wrong have made nothing. Those who focused on making money and stayed invested in stocks have seen their entire portfolios increase by over 33%!

Which brings us to #2: trying to calling a top.

Please understand, I’m not trying to make fun of people who are cautious or conservative with their investments. But at some point, if you’re looking to make real money with your investing, you need to focus on what works and ignore feelings/ worries that don’t contribute anything to your net worth.

I’m talking about thoughts like…

1) This stock has gone up a lot, so it must be in a bubble.

2) This is the top!

3) The market is rigged!

NO ONE got rich from any of those three concepts. If your goal is to make money from your investments, you should remove all three of them from your investing vocabulary.

Let’s break down all three.

Regarding #1, since going public Apple (AAPL) has looked “bubbly” countless times. Heck, it was up 20,000% in 2018. And yet, if you focused on the fact AAPL had gone up so much, you missed out on the run to 200,000% gains!

Which brings us to #2: trying to calling a top.

No one… I repeat, NO ONE has ever gotten rich from calling a top. A small handful of people have gotten rich from crashes or bear markets… but most if not ALL of investors (including the legends) got rich from riding bull markets or bull moves in individual stocks.

Indeed, every bull market is nothing more than a series of “tops” which are then taken out by new highs. If you’re obsessed with calling a top and getting out of stocks, you’re guaranteeing you won’t see future gains. Put another way, your obsession is limiting your profits.

Which brings us to #3 in our list: claiming that the market is rigged.

The reason people claim this is because time and again it looks as if stocks are going to break down only to reverse and ramp higher. But if you dig a little deeper into this way of thinking, you quickly realize that it means the person who is angry that the markets refuse to collapse secretly wants something bad to happen to the markets.

Understand, I’m not saying that the markets aren’t manipulated. Anything that involves a lot of money or power breeds corruption and manipulation. But getting angry because stocks refuse to break down badly is bad for your physical health, your mental health, and your portfolio.

As investors, our job is to make money, not look for any excuse to dump stocks and panic about something bad happening. And as I’ve outlined in recent articles, this means riding bull markets for as long as possible, and then side-stepping bear markets when they eventually hit.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or limiting beliefs) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

I’ve developed a tool that takes ALL of the guessing work out of this problem. With just one look at this tool, you can tell whether it’s a good time to buy stocks or not. I detail it, along with what it’s currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jun

2024

Are You Worried About a Recession?

By Graham Summers, MBA

“Look at this, a recession is about to hit!”

Everywhere you look, people are calling for a recession to hit. In fact, many big name investors and gurus have been calling for a recession for most of the last two years.

During that time, stocks have gone up 50%.

The primary reason people are calling for a recession is that a number of signals that have previously predicted recessions are once again flashing “danger.”

For instance, the yield curve has been inverted for nearly two years. Historically a yield curve inversion followed by a subsequent dis-inversion has predicted every recession since 1980.

You can see this clearly in the chart below. Anytime the blue line broke below 0, the yield curve was inverted. You’ll note that recessions (grey bars) hit soon after the yield curve became dis-inverted (the blue line broke back above 0).

Looking at that chart, many investors believe it’s time to dump their stocks and prepare for a recession and market crash. However, there are two problems with using this metric to invest in stocks today.

1) The pandemic and its economic impact messed up the usefulness of many metrics including the yield curve.

2) Stock returns vary dramatically during yield curve inversions.

Regarding #1, the pandemic/ economic shutdowns and subsequent Fed/ Federal Government interventions have never happened before. Never before in history has the economy been shut down. And never before has the Fed/ Federal Government pumped $11 TRILLION into the financial system in the span of 20 months.

Put simply, our current economic environment is completely different from every other environment in which the yield curve inverted. Case in point, today the Fed is talking about cutting rates while the economy is growing and inflation is falling.

That was not the case when the yield curve inverted in 1980, 1988, 2001, 2007, or 2019. So again, the pandemic messed up a lot of economic metrics that have been accurate in the past.

Which brings us to #2 in our list above: stock returns vary dramatically during yield curve inversions.

Stocks returned anywhere from -38% to +16% during the last five yield curve inversions. That is QUITE a range of returns. And it negates the usefulness of investing based on what the yield curve is doing.

Think of it this way… if someone approached you and said, “if you use this investing trick, you either lose 38% or make 16%,” you’d tell them to take a hike.

Well, that’s what stocks have returned during yield curve inversions.

In the very simplest of terms, you need to be invested in stocks, until an objective, verifiable tool (not your feelings or an inaccurate economic metric) tells you it’s time to “get out.”

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jun

2024

This Is the Single Most Important Question For Investors Today

By Graham Summers, MBA

“Is is a good time to buy stocks?”

As an investment strategist, I get asked this question all the time. On the surface, it sounds as if the person is interested in making money from the stock market.

Having worked in finance for over 20 years, I’ve come to realize that when someone asks me this, what he or she is really saying is that they believe stocks are too risky for investing. After all, during the course of my career the markets have experienced three MAJOR crises. And who wants to put his or her money into an asset class that can lose 30% in a matter of weeks?

Let’s start with the basics of stock market investing.

Stocks are essentially a means of investing in human innovation. Nearly every stock trading on the stock market represents someone’s life work to build a better product/service. Sure, there is the occasional fraud or company that manages to go public without actually producing anything of value, but for the most part, the stock market is the closest thing to betting on human ingenuity/ innovation.

Now, humanity gets a lot of things wrong. But when it comes to inventing/ creating/ developing things, it’s RARELY a good idea to bet against us. For this reason, over the long-term, stocks tend to go up a LOT.

See for yourself.

So why not simply buy stocks ALL THE TIME?!?

Because, during the occasional periods in which stocks DON’T go up… they either A) lose a LOT of money or B) go nowhere for ~20 years.

See for yourself. I’ve illustrated those periods in which stocks didn’t do well with red rectangles in the chart below.

Thus, investors are in a quandary.

One the one hand, stocks tend to go up a LOT over the long-term. But on the other hand, there are periods in which stocks do NOTHING for ~20 years.

Thus, the focus for ANYONE looking to invest in stocks is to determine whether stocks are in a strong bull market… or if they are about to enter a prolonged period of ZERO returns.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jun

2024

You Can Use This Tool to Save Your Portfolio From a Crash

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Is the stock market about to crash?

Everywhere I look on social media, the defining narrative is that the stock market is in a massive bubble that is about to burst, triggering a devastating crash.

The dirty little secret about the people pushing these narratives is that they have never actually called a crash. Instead, they’ve been bearish for years and years, and like a broken clock, they’ve been right once or twice. And I can guarantee you they didn’t make ANY MONEY from a market crash when it DID happen.

Let’s start with the basics here.

Crashes, DO happen, but they are RARE. There have been THREE in the last 35 years:

1) 2000-2003

2) 2007-2009

3) February-April 2020

Bear in mind, I’m talking about REAL crashes here or full-scale crises, not garden variety corrections of 10%. I’ve illustrated the crashes of note in the chart below.

Again, there were just THREE major financial catastrophes in a 35 year period, or roughly one every 10 years or so. That’s quite rare. Name another “1 in 10 years” event that people obsess about to this degree. I can’t. People get worked up about buying new homes or changing careers, both of which are “1 in 10 years”-type events… but I don’t see entire Youtube Channels and social media accounts that talk non-stop about those events the same way I see people obsessing about market crashes.

Again, when we talk about crashes, we’re talking about “1 in 10 years” events!

Even if we were to include EVERY time the market dropped more than 10% in rapid fashion, the number of “events” in the stock market is less than 10. Even if I missed a few here, you’re still talking about a “1 in 3 years” event.

Meanwhile, throughout this 35 year period, in spite of these crashes/ events, stocks rose nearly 2,000%. Anyone who obsessed about crashes to the point of avoiding stocks completely, or even worse, betting on a collapse non-stop, missed one of the greatest periods of wealth generation in human history.

So why not simply buy stocks non-stop and hold for the long-term?

Because when crashes DO happen, stocks can take YEARS before they hit new highs.

Consider the period from 1996-2013. There were several MAJOR bull markets that saw stocks generate huge returns. Unfortunately, the subsequent bear markets/ crashes ERASED most if not all of those gains. As a result of this, stocks didn’t make a cent for 17 years!

Thus, investors are in a quandary.

One the one hand, crashes are rare events. And obsessing over them can lead to missing out on creating generational wealth from your investments.

However, on the other hand, when crashes DO happen, they can lead to 10+ years of ZERO returns for long-term, buy and hold investors. What are the odds that a REAL person would be willing to sit through a period like that and not despair?

Likely ZERO.

So obviously, investors need a tool of avoiding crashes, while riding bull markets for as long as possible.

I’ve developed PRECISELY such a tool. I detail it, along with what it’s currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jun

2024

Our Next Prediction For Stocks Is…

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The stock market is setting up to offer a buying opportunity in the next week or two.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week. Every dip was bought as the markets finished the week in a solid “risk on” framework.

However, beneath the surface, several market leading indicators show a dip is coming…

High yield credit, which has led every turn for stocks in the last four months, has rolled over. As I write this Monday morning, it suggests the S&P 500 will fall to 5,300 in the near future. This is just a “dip” and we see it as a buying opportunity.

Breadth, another market leading indicator, is saying the same thing direction-wise. But it suggests the dip will be slightly deeper with the S&P 500 dropped to the 5,200s . The fact both breadth and high yield credit are saying the same thing, adds weight to the forecast for a risk off move.

Will this risk off move open the door to something worse? Could stocks crash some time in the near future?

To answer those questions, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

CLICK HERE NOW

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Jun

2024

Why You Should Avoid Being Bearish Right Now

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Stocks continue to defy the bears.

Being bearish is inherently problematic because historically stocks tend to go up… and quite a lot. Over the last 100 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has finished the year up 68% of the time. And as you can see in the chart below… they’ve gone up a LOT.

Investing is all about probabilities, and if there is a greater than two thirds odds that stocks will go up in any given year, betting on a collapse is generally going to be a losing bet.

Understand, I’m not suggesting you should be mindlessly optimistic about the markets. There are always risks. But from a big picture perspective, stocks tend to go up, and go up quite a lot.

This should be the foundation for your view of the markets.

So why not simply buy stocks any time you have any additional capital?

Because when stocks DON’T go up, they either:

1) Go nowhere for years, if not decades.

2) Can lose a LOT of money VERY quickly.

Regarding #1, take a look at the below chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1919. You’ll note that there were three periods in which stocks went nowhere for a considerable length of time.

They were:

1) 1923-1953 (30 years)

2) 1963-1982 (19 years)

3) 1993-2015 (22 years)

Anyone who loaded up on stocks automatically throughout these time periods didn’t make a cent for decades.

There are a lot of analysts who ignore these facts and tell their clients to simply buy stocks for the long-term at any time, but what are the odds that a real person, putting real money to work in the markets could sit through ~20 years of NO gains and not despair?

ZERO.

Put simply, if you’re looking to make REAL wealth from the markets, you need to focus on WHEN to buy stocks and when to avoid them.

You’re probably wondering how can I act so carefree about stocks today when there are clearly so many issues in the world?

The answer is simple: I have proprietary triggers that hit before any major market break-down. Until one of them goes off, the market is telling me that stocks aren’t concerned about the issues/ risks.

To figure that out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

May

2024

The Biggest Mistake Most Investors Make (and It Costs Them Millions)

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

It’s very easy to be bearish about stocks today.

After all, there’s the prospect of a recession, the massive deficit ($1.6 trillion), conflict in the Middle East, the so-called AI bubble waiting to burst, and more.

However, despite all of these problems, stocks keep rising. In fact, they closed at new all-time highs just last week. Anyone who sold their holdings based on any of the above risks missed out on growing their portfolio. Anyone who panicked in April and sold their positions… or even worse DIDN’T take advantage of the drop to go long, has missed out on a LOT of money.

It’d be bad enough to do this once… but unfortunately many investors do this time and time again to the point of missing out on MILLIONS’ of dollars worth of gains.

It all stems from a lack of understanding about the stock market.

At any given time, the market’s action is determined by the decisions of millions of individuals, all of whom have “skin in the game” in the form of money. So, the market is processing literally billions, if not trillions, of pieces of information every day.

However, out of all these pieces of information, stocks usually only “care about” or focus on two or three items at any particular time. Sometimes it might be the economy. Other times it might be the Fed. Other times it might be a war, or a President’s actions (or tweets), or a hedge fund blowing up, or inflation, etc.

And until stocks start caring about a specific issue to the point of breaking down… all the hypothetical risks or issues that investors care about individually are unimportant (as far as stocks are concerned).

This is the single biggest mistake most investors make: worrying or panicking about risks to the point of missing out on bull markets. It’d be one thing if this was just a mistake… but it’s a costly mistake. As I mentioned earlier, investors miss out on MILLIONS of dollars’ worth of market gains when they don’t catch the big market rallies.

I realize the above words sound crazy coming from me. After all, two of the biggest calls of my career involved betting on bad things happening: the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and the EU Debt Crisis of 2011-2012.

So how can I act so carefree about stocks today when there are clearly so many issues in the world?

I’ll detail one of the them in tomorrow’s article… but in the meantime, if you’re looking for someone to guide your investing to make sure you’re NOT missing out on the biggest market gains, I can help.

Some quick facts about my track record.

I first recommended shares of Nvidia (NVDA) to clients in 2007 when it was trading at a split-adjusted price of $1 per share (it’s over $900 today).

I moved clients into Microsoft (MSFT) in 2014 when it was below $50 a share (it’s over $400 today).

We also bought AutoZone in 2012 when it was $422 a share (it’s over $2,700 today).

Simply put, when it comes to making BIG money from investing, I’ve done it time and again. Indeed, since 2015, subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory have maintained a win rate of 74%.

Yes, we made money on three out of every four trades we closed… for EIGHT YEARS STRAIGHT!

And I believe 2024 is going to be our best year yet! We’ve already locked in gains of 10%, 15%, 27%, 30% and 67%… and the year isn’t even half over!

I’d love to have you join us. And you can do this today, for just $3.99 with a 30-day trial to Private Wealth Advisory!

Before proceeding I must warn you that this offer will expire this coming Friday at midnight!

A six month subscription comes with:

Again, the doors close on this offer this Friday at midnight.

START MY TRIAL!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

May

2024

This is How Successful Investors Think About Stocks (And You Can Too).

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks hit new all time highs last week.

The reasoning here is quite simple: the economy is growing and the Fed has signaled it will start easing rates soon.

This is something of a goldilocks scenario. After all, what is a better environment for stocks than a growing economy (which means rising earnings) and lower rates (which mean investors paying a higher multiple for stocks’ higher rates of growth).

But what about the conflict in the Middle East, stocks being overvalued, inflation potentially turning back up, AI being in a bubble, and the dozens of other potential issues the market faces today?

There are ALWAYS problems in the world. And there are ALWAYS a multitude of things that can go wrong with the economy or the stock market. But until any one of those things becomes a big enough problem for the stock market to react… they remain hypotheticals.

I realize that sounds ludicrous, but think about your own health. The human body is comprised of ~36 trillion cells, 206 bones, 78 organs, and 11 organ systems.

The potential for something to go wrong is so large it’s incomprehensible. And yet, most days, we get up and function just fine. But if we sat down and chose to focus on the potential of something going wrong… we could easily convince ourselves that we were on the verge of a serious illness or worse.

The stock market is similar. There’s tremendous potential for something to go wrong… but we’re talking about potential not reality. Many of the potential issues never even materialize or if they do, they prove to be overblown as far as stocks are concerned.

This is why sophisticated investors don’t fret and panic about stocks every day. I’m not saying they don’t employ careful risk management protocols… but until a problem actually appears and becomes significant enough to impact stocks… they focus on MAKING MONEY, not worrying.

The end result is that while everyone else frets and worries, these people are growing their portfolios. The good news is that with the right guidance, you could EASILY do the same.

And if you’re looking for someone to guide your investments to insure you profit from it, I’m your guy.

Since 2015, subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory have maintained a win rate of 74%.

Yes, we made money on three out of every four trades we closed… for EIGHT YEARS STRAIGHT!

And I believe 2024 is going to be our best year yet! We’ve already locked in gains of 10%, 15%, 27%, 30% and 67%… and the year isn’t even half over!

To join us in turning the markets into a source of life-changing profits, all you NEED to do is take out a 30-day $3.99 trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.

A full SIX (6) MONTH subscription to Private Wealth Advisory includes:

This is a HECK of a lot of value for just $3.99.

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Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

May

2024

Is This Major Country About to Default?

Japan is showing us the endgame for central bank insanity.

Ever since the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed has been following Japan’s playbook for propping up a financial system. Indeed, everything the Fed has done, Japan originally nearly a decade earlier.

The Fed first cut interest rates to zero in 2008. Japan did that in 1999.

Similarly, the Fed first introduced large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs in 2008. Japan first did that in 2001.

My point is that Japan is the grandfather for central bank insanity. Because of this, the current situation in that country bears watching as it shows us the endgame for what will eventually unfold in the US.

I’m talking about the collapse of a currency.

Japan’s currency, the Yen, started collapsed in 2002. Since that time, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan or BoJ for short, has begun intervening to prop up the currency.

As you can see in the below chart, every single one of these interventions has failed. The Yen is now hanging on to the edge of a cliff by its fingernails. If this last line of support gives way, it could enter a free-fall.

Put simply, the third largest economy in the world is on the verge of an outright currency collapse. And if you think this couldn’t happen in the U.S., you are mistaken. The Fed has already signaled that it will be inflating away the U.S. debt in the coming years.

This means the $USD slowly entering a death spiral… and inflation trades making fortunes.

There is a LOT of money to be made here… and if you’re looking for a means to to insure you profit from it, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from the Fed’s inflationary mistakes. As I write this, all three of them are exploding higher.

Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

May

2024

The Fed Has Made a Crucial Mistake… What Does That Mean For Stocks?

by Graham Summers, MBA

As I outlined yesterday, the Fed is in a panic.

By quick way of review:

The Fed stopped raising rates in June 2023.
Since that time, the Fed has shifted to talking about easing monetary conditions.
This has ignited a second wave of inflation.
1. On an annualized basis, the 1-month change in inflation is 3.9%
2. On an annualized basis, the 3-month change in inflation is 4.4%
This resurgence in inflation has benefited former President Trump’s campaign as Americans by and large vote with their wallets.
Former President Trump has set his sights on the Fed.

Regarding #5, Trump is convinced the Fed plays politics to benefit the establishment/ leftists. He believes the Fed intentionally sabotaged the economy during his first term by raising rates aggressively from 2017-2019. He also believes the Fed is actively juicing the markets to help the Biden administration today (he’s not wrong there).

And unlike his prior attacks on the Fed, which largely consisted of tweets and interviews in which he mocked Fed officials, this time around, Trump is planning to take action if elected.

Trump’s advisors recently leaked a proposal to overhaul the Fed completely should Trump win in 2024. Among the various proposals:

Allowing Trump to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell before the latter’s term is up.
Revising the Fed’s leadership structure to include the White House in decisions concerning monetary policy (including cutting or raising interest rates).
Using the Treasury to keep Fed policy “in check”

Let me be clear here: I’m not saying that I agree with Trump’s proposals or that a Trump win in 2024 would be a good thing. I’m simply pointing out, as a statement of fact, what Trump plans to do if he wins.

This terrifies the Fed. If there’s one thing policymakers DON’T like, it’s being told what to do, or worse still, being fired.

And thus the Fed is in a pickle. On the one hand, it wants to do everything it can to juice the economy/ stock market to insure Trump doesn’t win.

But on the other hand… juicing the financial system is highly inflationary, which makes it more likely that Trump will win!

So what does this mean for stocks?

Increased volatility.

Stocks are being pulled in two directions shifting from focusing on potential Fed easing, to worrying about higher inflation resulting in the Fed having to tighten again.

We’ve already gotten a taste of this in 2024.

Stocks came into the year roaring higher on hopes of the Fed cutting rates. Then inflation began to tick upwards, resulting in stocks falling on fears that the Fed wouldn’t be able to cut rates any time soon.

We’re not talking about small price swings either as the below chart illustrates.

What does this mean for investors?

Your best bet is to ride the inflationary impulse into the election. After that, everything hinges on who wins.

What investments will profit the most from this situation?

To answer that, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from the Fed’s inflationary mistakes. As I write this, all three of them are exploding higher.

Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

May

2024

Has the Fed Unwittingly Guaranteed a Trump Win?

The Fed is panicking.

Why?

Because, its efforts to loosen monetary policy to juice stocks and real estate higher to aid the Biden administration with its re-election campaign have unleashed another round of inflation.

Don’t believe me? See for yourself.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) bottomed right around the time the Fed stopped raising rates. It has since flat-lined and is now turning back up.

The same is true for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core-Personal Consumption Expenditures or core-PCE.

That little uptick doesn’t look like much, but as economist Jason Furman notes, if you annualize the 1-month and 3-month changes in core-PCE, the situation the second wave of inflation becomes clear.

Annualizing the 1-month MoM rate of change in Core-PCE gives you inflation of 3.9%.

Annualizing the 3-month MoM rate of change in Core-PCE gives you inflation of 4.4%.

Still not convinced? Take a look at what gold is doing.

As a general rule, Americans vote with their pocketbooks. And this spike in inflation is TOXIC for the Biden administration.

Former President Trump is one of the most unlikeable candidates in history… and yet, he’s been gaining on President Biden in the polls ever since inflation started ticking back up again in September 2023 (see for yourself)

So what will the Fed do? Its monetary easing boost stocks and real estate, but it also worsens inflation, which increases the odds of former-President Trump taking the White House. And what investments will profit the most from this situation?

Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

What’s Really Going On With Bidenomics?

By Graham Summers, MBA

The economy is showing a strange dichotomy.

On the one hand, the economic data ranges from good to great, with GDP growth clocking in at an annualized rate of 3.9%, and the economy adding ~300,000 jobs per month.

On the other hand, President Biden has the worst job approval rating in 70 years with just 38.7% of Americans approving of his efforts. And always remember, Americans vote with their wallets.

How are these two items possible? How can the economy be doing so well and President Biden be so unpopular?

The answer is quite simple: Bidenomics is actually Bubble-nomics through which the Federal Reserve juices the stock and real estate markets to levels that have no real connection to reality.

Those Americans who make up the top 20%, and especially the top 1% of the economy (the ones who own a lot of stocks and real estate) are doing GREAT. Everyone else? Not so much.

It all started in November of last year. At that time, the Fed announced that it was getting ready to start cutting interest rates despite the fact that inflation was still well above 3% and financial conditions were actually looser than they were before the Fed started tightening monetary policy to end inflation!

Stocks literally EXPLODED higher on the announcement and haven’t looked back.

As for real estate, the Fed effectively cornered the Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) market during the pandemic, sending home prices through the roof. Even with this market cooling in the last year or so, prices are WAY higher than they were before the Fed intervened.

By the way, once the Fed starts cutting rates, this market will also explode higher as two-years of pent up demand (mortgage rates were prohibitively high for most of the last two years) comes to market.

The top 20% of the country, particularly the top 1%, who own more assets that the entire Middle Class (the mid-60% in income brackets) have seen their net worth EXPLODE higher during President Biden’s first term.

These individuals comprise an extreme amount of the consumer spending/ economic drivers that are masking how the other 99% of the country are doing.

What does this mean for the markets?

I’ll detail that in tomorrow’s article.

On that note, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from the inflationary effects of Bidenomics. Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

Why Stocks Are Falling… and What Comes Next

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The stock market has finally woken up to what I’ve been warning about for weeks… namely that inflation is rebounding.

By quick way of review, the Fed stopped raising interest rates in July 2023. It then started talking about cutting interest rates in November. And it did this despite the clear evidence that Energy prices were the only part of the inflation data that had turned negative. Put another way, every other segment of the inflation data was still rising… albeit at a slower pace.

Fast forward to today, and the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index or CPI for short has bottomed and is beginning to rebound.

With inflation doing this, there is NO WAY the Fed can cut rates three times this year. The bond market has realized this and is now discounting maybe one rate cut of 0.25% this year.

Stocks didn’t like that. The S&P 500 has now dropped 4% and is below its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since November 2023.

Bottomline: this move was entirely predictable, and those investors who were prepared for it are seeing EXTRAORDINARY returns in their portfolios.

On that note, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from this rampant government spending. Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

The Second Wave of Inflation Has Arrived

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I warned time and again that the Fed was making a massive policy mistake that would unleash another round of inflation.

By quick way of review, the Fed stopped raising interest rates in July 2023. It then started talking about cutting interest rates in November. This was a MASSIVE mistake as inflation has NOT been defeated.

Indeed, ever since the Fed started talking about cutting rates, the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has bottomed and is now turning back up.

This trend continues. Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that CPI rose 0.4% Month-over-Month (MoM) and 3.5% Year-over-Year (YoY) in March 2024.

This represents the FOURTH straight month of CPI coming in hotter than expected. The fact it surprised Wall Street and most investment strategists confirms that NONE of these people are paying attention to the data.

The only part of the inflation data that is down is energy prices (and used cars which receives almost no weight). Every other segment of the CPI continues to rise.

See for yourself:

However, even Energy prices will begin turning up again… as are commodities in general. Both gasoline prices and copper prices are on the rise and about to break out of multi-year consolidation periods.

This is going to catch most investors offsides… but the good news is that with the right investments, you could see EXTRAORDINARY returns from what’s coming.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

The Great Debt Crisis of Our Lifetimes is Coming!

Over the last week, we’ve warned investors that the Fed’s actions are unleashing another round of inflation in the U.S. financial system.

By quick way of review.

The only part of the inflation data that is declining year over year is Energy prices. Every other segment of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to rise.
Financial conditions are as loose today as they were when the Fed first started raising interest rates in March 2022. And yet, the Fed is preparing to cut rates instead of raising them.
The Fed is still providing hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the financial system via credit facilities.
The Fed’s own research indicates that food inflation is the best predictor of future inflation. And agricultural commodities are skyrocketing to new highs.

Unfortunately for Americans, the Fed isn’t the only entity that is engaged in inflationary policies. The Biden administration is currently engaged in truly extraordinary levels of money printing.

The Biden administration has added $6 trillion to the national debt since taking office. Bear in mind, this is happening at a time when the U.S. is collecting a record amount in taxes. So, the Biden administration is not only spending all of the tax dollars collected, it’s spending so much money that the U.S. is having to issue record amounts of debt!

The below chart needs no explanation. This is simply not sustainable.

Indeed, the pace of debt issuance is speeding up not slowing. The Biden admin issued $3 trillion in new debt in between 2021 and 2023. It added another $4 trillion in new debt in 2023 alone. At this pace. the U.S. will hit $40 trillion in debt some time in mid-2025.

The good news is that those investors who are properly positioned for this stand to generate truly EXTRAORDINARY returns in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

The Fed’s Own Research Tells Us Another Round Inflation is Coming

by Graham Summers, MBA

As I keep emphasizing, another round of inflation is coming.

And the worst part?

The Fed knows it, but is playing political games to boost the economy/ stock market for the Biden Administration.

“But wait a minute, Graham,” you’re no doubt thinking, “the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is core-Personal Consumption Expenditures and that is trending down to the Fed’s 2% target.”

Let me let you in on a little secret… PCE is a terrible predictor of future inflation… and the Fed knows it.

The Fed is the largest employer of economics PhDs in the world. All told, the Fed has over 400 economics PhDs and 150 research assistants on payroll. As a result of this, the Fed is constantly doing research on various issues.

Back in 2001, the Fed had several researchers dive into the subject of inflation. Their goal was the analyze whether the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation (the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE) are decent predictors of future inflation. The Fed also investigated a whole slew of other inflation measures for comparison purposes.

The results?

The Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, is the best predictor of future inflation. Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all…

Source: St Louis Fed (emphasis added).

Now, food is derived from agricultural commodities. And what have agricultural commodities been doing in the last few months?

The first round of inflation is highlighted with a pink oval. The current price move is significantly larger. According to the Fed’s own research, this indicates a second wave of inflation is about to hit the US.

The good news is that those investors who are properly positioned for this stand to generate truly EXTRAORDINARY returns in the coming months.

On that note, the FREE copies of our Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from the next round of inflation are rapidly being reserved. So if you want reserve one, you better move fast!

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

The Weekly Market Forecast for 4-8-24

Stocks look due for a pullback.

Ever since the S&P 500 bottomed in late October/ early November 2023, the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) has served a major “trend line.” Put simply, whenever stocks fell to test this line, they “bounced” soon after and the rally continued.

Last week’s price action featured a different dynamic. Stocks fell to test the 21-EMA and struggled to reclaim it for two sessions (blue oval in the chart below). The only other time this happened was during the brief market pullback in early January 2024. At that time, the market rebounded sharply on the third trading session (purple oval in the chart below).

In this context, today’s price action is key. If the S&P 500 rallies hard and reclaims the 21-EMA, then it’s likely stocks will rally to new highs. However, if stocks cannot reclaim the 21-EMA with conviction today, then we’re likely to see more downside for stocks.

I’ve illustrated the S&P 500’s support lines in the chart below.

If you’re interested in taking advantage of a unique situation in the stock market today, the FREE copies of our Special Investment Report detailing three investments that can profit from inflation are rapidly being reserved. So if you want reserve one, you better move fast!

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Apr

2024

Are You Ready For the Second Wave of Inflation?

Our latest theme is that the U.S. Central Bank, called the Federal Reserve, or the Fed for short, is NOT politically independent, but is in fact a highly partisan organization that leans left.

The above items are not some conspiracy theory. The Fed’s own actions support this view.

By quick way of review…

1) The Bernanke-led Fed launched QE 3 just three months before the 2012 Presidential election. At the time, the economy was growing, unemployment was falling, and there were no signs of systemic duress in the financial system. So this was a clear intervention to aid the Obama Administration’s 2012 re-election bid.

2) The Fed kept rates at zero for seven of the eight years President Obama was in office. Once it finally got around to raising rates, it engaged in one of the feeblest hiking schedules in history, raising them only once in 2015

and once in 2016.

3) Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election in a major upset to the political establishment. At that point the Fed suddenly began raising rates three to four times per year while simultaneously draining $500 billion in liquidity from the financial system.

4) Today, the Fed is actively juicing the stock market via multiple credit facilities designed to provide liquidity to help the Biden administration with its re-election bid. The Fed is also promising to cut rates despite the fact it’s an election year and inflation has not fallen to its 2% target.

I wish this was the end of this disturbing exercise, but it’s not: the Fed is also letting housing bubble up again. The reason? You guessed it, real estate is the single most owned asset class in the U.S. And boosting home prices during an election year is likely to sway voters.

TheS&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 6% in January. This is up from 5.6% in December 2023. As HousingWire notes, this represents the seventh consecutive month of annual price growth. It’s also the biggest increase since November 2022.

By the way, inflation was around 6% at that time!

So we’ve got both real estate and stocks bubbling up again, courtesy of the Fed playing political games. In the near-term this is fantastic for Americans, who will see their net worth rise as a result of this.

The bad news is that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. And the Fed’s political shenanigans are unleashing a second wave of inflation.

Gold has figured it out. It recently exploded to new all-time highs.

The good news is that those investors who are properly positioned for this stand to generate truly EXTRAORDINARY returns in the coming months.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Mar

2024

How the Fed is Juicing Stocks to Help the Biden Administration

Yesterday, I detailed how the Fed is a political entity… and it leans left.

By quick way of review…

and once in 2016.

It is possible that the above items are all coincidence. It’s also possible that Bigfoot could actually be Elvis living in disguise in the woods.

So what is the Fed up to now?

It’s trying to help President Biden win the 2024 Presidential election by juicing the two asset classes that have the largest impact on Americans’ net worth (stocks and housing ).

Today we’ll be assessing the stock market.

The Fed is supposed to be draining liquidity from the financial system via its Quantitive Tightening (QT) program. However, the Fed is ALSO providing $155 BILLION in liquidity via its overnight credit facilities. To put that into perspective, it’s more liquidity than the Fed was providing via this facility in MARCH 2009 right after the worst financial crisis in 80 years!

As if that’s not egregious enough, the Fed is ALSO providing nearly $500 billion in liquidity via a process called Reverse Repurchase Agreements.

Small wonder then that the stock market has been roaring higher. The Fed is providing EMERGENCY levels of liquidity to the financial system at a time when the economy is growing! So much for QT!

In the very simplest of terms, the Fed is juicing stocks higher to boost the Biden Administration’s 2024 re-election bid. And rest assured, I’ll detail how the Fed is doing the same thing with housing in tomorrow’s article.

The good news is that those investors who are properly positioned for this stand to see extraordinary gains.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Mar

2024

Here’s Proof the Fed is a Political Entity… and It Leans LEFT

By Graham Summers, MBA

It’s time to tell the truth when it comes to Fed political interventions.

One of the biggest myths concerning the Fed is that it is politically independent. This is laughably false to anyone who has paid attention during the last 25 years.

Consider that in 2012, the Bernanke-led Fed announced QE 3, its largest QE program in history at the time (an $80 billion per month, open-ended program), a mere THREE MONTHS before the U.S. Presidential election.

Bear in mind, the U.S. economy was growing and the U.S. financial system wasn’t under significant duress at the time. So this was blatant political interference to aid the Obama Administration’s re-election bid by boosting the stock market and economy.

A second major example of Fed political bias concerns its major shift in monetary policy once Donald Trump became President. To fully grasp this, we need to provide a little historical context.

Between 2008 and 2016, the Fed engaged in eight years of extraordinary monetary easing, maintaining interest rates of 0.25% (zero), and engaging in over $3 trillion worth of QE from 2008 to 2015. Bear in mind that throughout this time, the U.S. economy was technically NOT in recession. Economic growth was steady:

And the unemployment rate was in a clear downtrend:

Once the Fed actually ended easing, it embarked on one of the feeblest campaigns of tightening monetary policy in history, raising rates only one time in 2015 and 2016. I would note that all of this took place under the Obama administration.

Then Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election, and suddenly the Fed “got religion” about normalizing monetary policy. It raised rates three times in 2017 and another four times in 2018. In 2018 it also began shrinking its balance sheet via a process called Quantitative Tightening or QT. It would ultimately drain $500 billion in liquidity from the financial system via QT in 12 months. That is quite a shift considering the Fed had maintained rates at or close to ZERO for eight years prior to this.

Throughout 2016-2018, the Fed ignored numerous signals that this pace of tightening was placing the financial system under duress, right up until the junk bond market froze and the U.S. stock market crashed 20% during the holidays in December 2018.

For those who would argue that the Fed’s sudden shift from maintaining easy monetary policy for the better part of a decade to aggressively normalizing policy in the span of 20 months had nothing to do with Donald Trump being President, consider that former Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fisher admitted in an interview that the Fed’s raising rates in December 2018 was done specifically to hurt the economy because the Fed was annoyed with President Trump’s constant tweeting about them.

So again… the Fed IS a political entity… and it leans LEFT.

I’ll detail what this means investors as we head into the 2024 President election in tomorrow’s article. But for now, gold is giving us a clue.

The good news is that those investors who are properly positioned for this stand to see extraordinary gains.

To pick up your copy, go to:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

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THE ONLY REPORT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW WHEN TO GET OUT OF STOCKS

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GRAHAM'S NEW BOOK WAS THE #1 NEW RELEASE IN FOUR CATEGORIES ON AMAZON

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