Gains Pains & Capital

Yesterday I asked, just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

As a brief recap, there are three main issues grabbing their attention.

1)   The collapse of German banking giant Deutsche Bank (DB).

2)   China’s banking system entering a credit freeze.

3)   The bursting of the Everything Bubble.

Of the three, it is the third that is most terrifying for the Fed.

After the 2008 crisis, the Fed attempted to reflate the financial system by creating a bubble in US Government bonds, which are also called Treasuries.

These bonds are the bedrock of the current financial system. And their yields represent the risk-free rate against which all assets, stocks, commodities, mortgages, etc. are valued.

So when the Fed created a bubble in Treasuries, it was actually creating a bubble in EVERYTHING.

And last year, it BURST, when the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury broke its 30+ year downtrend (purple circle in the chart below).

THIS is what panicked the Fed.

Why?

Because if the Everything Bubble blows up, so does the entire financial system.

• We’re talking a stock market crash worse than 2008.
• Oil falling to $10-$20 per barrel.
• Real estate prices falling 30%+

This is the situation the Fed is now desperately trying to stop. As you can see in the below chart, the Fed’s efforts are working… for now.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury fell to retest its long-term trendline last month. But it has YET to break below this line.

And that’s why the Fed is panicking… talking about cutting rates an incredible 50% next week.

Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.

Now we do too…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday I asked, just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

As a brief recap, there are three main issues grabbing their attention.

1)   The collapse of German banking giant Deutsche Bank (DB).

2)   China’s banking system entering a credit freeze.

3)   The bursting of the Everything Bubble.

Of the three, it is the third that is most terrifying for the Fed.

After the 2008 crisis, the Fed attempted to reflate the financial system by creating a bubble in US Government bonds, which are also called Treasuries.

These bonds are the bedrock of the current financial system. And their yields represent the risk-free rate against which all assets, stocks, commodities, mortgages, etc. are valued.

So when the Fed created a bubble in Treasuries, it was actually creating a bubble in EVERYTHING.

And last year, it BURST, when the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury broke its 30+ year downtrend (purple circle in the chart below).

THIS is what panicked the Fed.

Why?

Because if the Everything Bubble blows up, so does the entire financial system.

• We’re talking a stock market crash worse than 2008.
• Oil falling to $10-$20 per barrel.
• Real estate prices falling 30%+

This is the situation the Fed is now desperately trying to stop. As you can see in the below chart, the Fed’s efforts are working… for now.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury fell to retest its long-term trendline last month. But it has YET to break below this line.

And that’s why the Fed is panicking… talking about cutting rates an incredible 50% next week.

Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.

Now we do too…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday I asked, just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

As a brief recap, there are three main issues grabbing their attention.

1)   The collapse of German banking giant Deutsche Bank (DB).

2)   China’s banking system entering a credit freeze.

3)   The bursting of the Everything Bubble.

Of the three, it is the third that is most terrifying for the Fed.

After the 2008 crisis, the Fed attempted to reflate the financial system by creating a bubble in US Government bonds, which are also called Treasuries.

These bonds are the bedrock of the current financial system. And their yields represent the risk-free rate against which all assets, stocks, commodities, mortgages, etc. are valued.

So when the Fed created a bubble in Treasuries, it was actually creating a bubble in EVERYTHING.

And last year, it BURST, when the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury broke its 30+ year downtrend (purple circle in the chart below).

THIS is what panicked the Fed.

Why?

Because if the Everything Bubble blows up, so does the entire financial system. 

• We’re talking a stock market crash worse than 2008.
• Oil falling to $10-$20 per barrel.
• Real estate prices falling 30%+

This is the situation the Fed is now desperately trying to stop. As you can see in the below chart, the Fed’s efforts are working… for now.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury fell to retest its long-term trendline last month. But it has YET to break below this line.

And that’s why the Fed is panicking… talking about cutting rates an incredible 50% next week.

Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.

Now we do too…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.

Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.

Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.

This is happening at a time when economic data is rebounding, unemployment is below 4% and GDP growth is north of 3%.

So what exactly is going on? What does the Fed know that has it so terrified, because it’s obviously not the US economy.

1)   Deutsche Bank (DB) is imploding.

Sitting atop over $49 trillion in OCT derivatives, DB is like Lehman Brothers 2.0. And despite the best efforts of management and the authorities, the bank is imploding. DB shares were rejected by resistance last week, ending the “hope bounce” from recent moves to curtail the blow up.

2)   China’s banking system is freezing.

China experienced its first financial institution failure in 21 years in June.  Depositors and creditors lost 30% of their deposits in the process.

Put another way, nearly 30% of their money is GONE.

The Chinese banking authorities are attempting to piece the system back together, but it’s not working. The duress has yet to spill over into the Chinese stock market, but on Friday interbank lending in the mainland temporarily spiked to 1,000%, meaning a large bank was willing to pay ANYTHING in order to get access to capital.

This is EXTREMELY similar to what happened to the US credit markets n 2008.

And finally…

3)   The Everything Bubble has burst.

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury Bond. And thanks to the Fed’s tightening policy in 2018, it burst, with the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury breaking its 20-year downtrend.

The Fed is trying to get yields back into this downtrend. But it’s not going well. The yield temporarily broke back below the downtrend last month, but is beginning to bounce again.

If the Fed cannot get this situation under control, there’s $555 trillion in derivatives at stake. Yes, TRILLION with a T.

Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.

Now we do too…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Breadth is starting to breakdown.

As I write this, breadth are on the verge of breaking a bearish rising wedge formation.

Why does this matter?

Because breadth leads stocks.

Throughout 2018, breadth (black line) was warning that stocks (blue line) were due to correct (red squares in the chart below).

Breadth was right.

More recently, in late 2018 and mid 2019, breadth (black line) was telling us that stocks (blue line) had overdone it during their corrections (green squares in the chart below).

Again, breadth was right.

Which is why, today, when breadth is warning of a MAJOR breakdown, traders need to prepare in advance…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

As I keep stating, a top is forming.

Stocks are tired after weeks of promises and promotions by Fed officials and the Trump administration that something BIG is coming.

At this point there is little if any real buyers. It’s only by multiple interventions per day that the market hasn’t broken down.

The S&P 500 is forming a textbook rising wedge formation. The Fed better deliver rate cuts in a BIG way or stocks are in serious trouble.

Fed Ex (FDX) is the private largest shipping company in the U.S. As such it is a great indicator for measuring real economic activity. And the broader market usually follows where FDX leads.

Based on FDX, stocks could easily fall to 2,620 if the Fed doesn’t deliver some BIG rate cuts in a few weeks.

Incidentally that’s where Copper, another great economic indicator, suggests stocks will move as well.

Put simply, while the majority of investors are focusing on stocks hitting new highs, REAL economic indicators are telling us there’s trapdoor below the market today.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research