How Oil Will Trigger a Stock Market Crash

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has laid bare all the misguided, naïve policies our “leaders” have foisted upon us in the last 18 months.

Among the more foolish policies enacted by U.S. policymakers is the idea that the U.S. should NOT be energy independent but should rely on outside sources for oil.

Within days of taking office, President Biden ended the development of the Keystone XL Pipeline while putting an indefinite pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands.

Months later he was asking OPEC to increase production of oil because oil and gasoline prices skyrocketed. Thus far, gas is up over 90% during the Biden Presidency, while oil is close behind at 80%.

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Maybe we shouldn’t rely on countries that benefit from higher oil prices for our energy needs? Maybe those Executive Orders weren’t such a good idea? Maybe we should have people running our energy policy who actually know how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumers per day?

The icing on this cake of incompetence is the fact that the U.S. is directly financing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia supplies 7% of the U.S.’s energy needs. We are literally sending money to Putin every single day of the week… while calling him a monster. Maybe we should… stop buying oil from him!?!

As misguided as the Biden White House has been about energy policy, Europe’s leaders make it looks a bunch of geniuses. To that effect, Europe has been shutting down nuclear power plants and other sources of domestic energy production for years… all while signing deals with Vladimir Putin to supply its energy needs.

Currently Russia supplies ~40% of Europe’s gas and more than 25% of its oil.

How insane, or corrupt, or simply ignorant do you have to be to shut down domestic energy production and hand your energy needs over to Vladimir Putin? A kindergartener could tell you this was a dumb idea. But Europe’s elites signed off on it.

The end result?

Oil is above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. And there is little if any signs it’s not going much higher.

This is going to trigger a global recession… which in turn will trigger a market crash.

The world economy which was already fragile due to roaring inflation and supply chain issues will now be contending with an energy crisis. How do you think the economy will handle $100 oil when inflation was already at major problem when oil was at $80 a barrel?

Stocks know what’s coming, as they have already broken below their 10-month moving average (MMA). The last two times this happened, the market ended up testing its 40-month moving average soon after (see the purple circles below).

That means the S&P 500 falling to 3,450 or so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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The Dumb Money is Falling For Another Wall Street Trap… Don’t Be One of Them!

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Russia distraction appears to be over. The markets are enjoying a relief bounce. Enjoy it while it lasts.

The bigger issue for investors today is the fact that the markets are experiencing the first coordinated monetary tightening by central banks in years.

In the U.S., the financial system needs to digest the following:

·      The Fed is ending QE in a few weeks.

·      The Fed will begin raising rates, likely in March.

·      Multiple Fed insiders are suggesting the Fed will be raising rates five or seven times this year.

Across the Atlantic, we have:

·      The Bank of England (BoE) is already raising rates

·      The European Central Bank (ECB) will be ending QE this year.

·      The ECB is no longer committed to NOT raising rates. 

The bond markets are fully aware of these developments. But stocks are in “la la land.”

The yield on the 2-Year U.S. treasury has exploded higher, more than DOUBLING in the last six weeks alone.

In Germany, the 2-Year Government Bond has also exploded higher. Two weeks ago it moved more in a single week than it has in SIX YEARS.

This is the global financial system telling us, point blank, that we are in a “risk off” environment.

Stocks might chop around for a few more days, but we are going to NEW LOWS.

You can ignore this forecast, but in a week or so, you will wish you hadn’t.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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Stocks Are Going to New Lows, Regardless of What Russia Does

By Graham Summers, MBA

The #1 question from clients over the weekend was whether Russia would invade Ukraine.

My answer: it doesn’t matter as far as stocks are concerned.

This is not to say that a war isn’t significant. And I’m certainly not making light of human suffering or loss of life. What I am saying is that stocks are going to new lows regardless of what happens in Eastern Europe/ Russia.

Let me explain.

The #1 rule for investing since 1996 has been: don’t fight the Fed.

What I mean by this is that as the financial system has become more and more addicted to Fed interventions, your goal as an in investor should be to align your interests with whatever the Fed is trying to do.

If the Fed is trying to reflate the financial system by printing trillions of dollars, you generally want to be long stocks. This was certainly the case from March 2020 until November 2021, during which time the Fed was easing monetary conditions aggressively, printing over $4 trillion. Stocks went up in an almost straight line throughout this period. Anyone who attempted to fight the Fed by betting on a crash got taken to the cleaners.

So, what is the Fed doing now?

Since November 2021, the Fed has been reducing its money printing. Its last day of QE will be in early March (three weeks from today). And from that point onward, the Fed will be tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates.

Put simply, the Fed is tightening, which is generally BAD for risk assets like stocks. Investors already got a taste of what’s coming during the first leg down in late January.

So again, whether Russia invades Ukraine or not is relatively insignificant. The Fed, which is the single most powerful force in the markets, is tightening monetary policy right now, which means stocks are going to break down… or possibly even crash.

After all, the last three times the Fed did what it is doing now resulted in:

1) The Tech Crash (2000-2002) stocks lost 80%.

2) The Housing Crash (2007-2009) stocks lost 60%.

3) The late-2018 meltdown (October-December 2018) stocks lost 20%.

Let me be blunt here, if you’re not taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, NOW is the time to do so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,


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The Investors Who Ignore This Are In For a NASTY Surprise

By Graham Summers, MBA

The stock market manipulations are getting even more desperate.

For weeks now, I’ve noted time and again that the only thing holding up the stock market was abject manipulation. 

Financial institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with executing these institutions’ trades are graded based on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without moving the tape.

Which is why we knew that no real investor was responsible for the move that occurred yesterday at the open. I’m talking about the move that pushed stocks up from 4,535 to 4,575 in a matter of minutes on announcements that inflation has hit a 40-year high.

The CPI came in at 7.5% yesterday. The Fed’s funds rate is still at zero. Yesterday’s news means the Fed is WAAAAAYYY behind the curve on inflation and will need to hike rates aggressively.

So what investor would buy panic buy stocks based on this? The answer is NO ONE. This was egregious manipulation. And it shows us that the manipulators are becoming increasingly desperate.

Why?

The credit markets are imploding. They know what is coming. It ain’t pretty.

Let me be blunt here, if you’re not taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, NOW is the time to do so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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Warning: The Next Bloodbath is About to Begin

By Graham Summers, MBA

The stock market is setting up for another puke.

High yield credit typically leads the stock market. During the 2020 crash triggered by the economic shutdowns, high yield credit was already flashing major warning signals as early as January, while stocks continued to rally into late February. By the time stocks figured “it out” it was an absolute bloodbath. 

Now, take a look at what high yield credit is doing today.

In simple terms, the signs are clear: another bloodbath is coming. The markets will soon be a sea of red again. And the losses will be massive.

And it’s just the beginning. It’s quite possible the markets are entering a prolonged BEAR MARKET… a time in which stocks lose 50% or more over the course of months.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.

Let me be blunt here, if you’re not taking steps to prepare for what’s coming, NOW is the time to do so.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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The Investors Who Believe This Nonsense Are in For a World of Hurt

By Graham Summers, MBA

There’s fiction… and then there’s the January jobs report.

We are told that the economy added 1.2 MILLION jobs last month. This would be hilarious if wasn’t an incredible lie… a lie that is meant to convince the American people that the economy is doing well.

It isn’t.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produced this monstrosity, should go into creative writing… there at least you’re SUPPOSED to make things up.

The report itself is absurd. If you’re going to craft a garbage report, at least try to make it believable: don’t create jobs in industries that EVERYONE knows are NOT hiring in January.

Case in point, January is notorious for BAD Retail jobs numbers because 90% of retail sales occur between September and the Holidays. Retailers hire a ton of seasonal workers to meet this demand. Then, once the holidays pass, the retail layoffs begin.

And yet, the BLS’s jobs report claims the Retail industry ADDED 61,000 jobs in January. You know, because Retailers are ramping up for the big sales boom in February… which has NEVER happened.

Another glaring data point comes from the Leisure and Hospitality industry. 

It, like Retail, ALSO sees a holiday boom as Americans travel more during the holidays. Because of this, the Leisure and Hospitality industry hires tons of seasonal or part-time workers. Then, once the holidays pass, the layoffs begin.

Unless… you’re in the fantasy world of January’s jobs numbers. THEN the Leisure and Hospitality industry hired 161,000 people in January because… well because the report is garbage and was made up via accounting gimmicks.

Again, if you’re going to invent jobs out of thin air… at least try to make it believable.

So where are we really?

Well, if you go by ADP’s jobs numbers, U.S. companies SHED 301,000 employees last month.

If you go by the Labor Department’s official numbers, if you get rid of the population growth numbers which it admits are at best a GUESS, the economy LOST 272,000 jobs last month.

And then there’s the fact that the BLS itself admits that without seasonal revisions (i.e., BS-spreadsheet nonsense), the report would show that 272,000 jobs were LOST in January.

Put another way, the BLS’s accounting gimmicks created 1.4 MILLION jobs out of thin air. 

These jobs don’t exist. They’re just a data point created in a spreadsheet by a government bean counter using an algorithm that has no connection to reality.

Does this sound like a great economy to you?

If you don’t believe me, consider that stocks are FORWARD looking. 

The index that is most sensitive to the economy is the Russell 2000. Some 30% of the companies in this index are unprofitable… so this index NEEDS the economy to be doing well because the growth counter acts the lack of cash flows.

Note that the Russell 2000 went NOWHERE throughout 2021. And it is now breaking down in a horrible way.

Put another way… you better not believe the garbage data coming out of the BLS. If you do, you’re in for a world or hurt.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in It's a Bull Market | Comments Off on The Investors Who Believe This Nonsense Are in For a World of Hurt

Stocks Have Bounced… But is a Crash Just Around the Corner?

By Graham Summers, MBA

You’re no doubt confused by the market’s action of the last week. Are we about to see a waterfall crash… or are stocks about to explode higher to new highs?

The answer is probably neither.

Markets are tricky things. More often than not, their goal is to induce the maximum amount of suffering to the maximum number of investors.

So let’s dive in together and sort this out.

On a daily and weekly basis, the S&P 500 is now trending down. The market broke below its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since the March 2020 lows. That’s a BIG deal and suggests a new bear market is here. Stocks have since reclaimed that level, but are failing to get much higher.

Moreover, on a monthly basis, the S&P 500 is clinging to the ledge of a cliff at its 10-monthly moving average (MMA) at 4,465. 

This is a BIG deal for the bulls because every time the market has broken that line in the last five years, a bear market has hit, with stocks losing 20%-30% of their value quite rapidly. 

Where does this leave us?

Overall, the tilt for the market is decidedly NEGATIVE. The trend remains down on a daily basis and the monthly chart is looking quite dangerous as well.

This means the odds favor more downside… and possibly even a crash/ bear market.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

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Was Yesterday’s Rally the ‘Real Thing” or Was Something Sneaky Afoot?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday’s action sure seemed to come out of nowhere, didn’t it?

The market came roaring out of the gate yesterday morning and didn’t look back. Every period of weakness was bought aggressively by the bulls. And stocks finished the day up near 100 points on the S&P 500.

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What happened here? Is the danger over and it’s time to buy?

Not so fast!

The financial media likes to act as if every market move is driven by fundamentals. But sometimes the market moves 100% based on manipulation. For those who aren’t aware of this, moves like yesterday’s can be quite tricky. 

Let’s break this down together.

Fund managers must report their performance results every month. Yesterday was the last day of January. And going into that trading session, January had been a terrible month for most funds.

In simple terms, yesterday represented the last opportunity investment funds had to push stocks higher to ensure the month ended with the best possible results. So, they did what most people would do in that situation… they gamed performance by pushing stocks higher.

You can see this clearly in the Big Tech stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook/ Meta).

These are the most over-owned companies on the market.  Practically every fund on the planet owns them to the point that they’re often referred to as “hedge fund hotels.” 

These companies exploded higher yesterday, dramatically outperforming the broader market. The FANG Plus Index which made up of large tech companies I just mentioned, rose over 5.8% while the S&P 500 was up just 1.89%.

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What rational thinking investor bought shares of Apple or Alphabet or Microsoft in an absolute panic yesterday? 

Again, these are the most owned companies on the planet. So where did the demand come from to force these companies to spike higher?

It was manipulation by the same funds that already owned these companies… and who were about to report awful performance numbers for the month of January. 

This is what makes markets so tricky: if you’re not aware of what’s happening “behind the scenes” it’s easy to mistake these kinds of games for a real bull run.

For those of us who know how the game is played, the most likely path for stocks going forward is this:

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For those who are worried that a new bear market is starting and that the stock market is in danger of a crash, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how to not only protect your portfolio, but how to profit from a market collapse.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in Head Fake | Comments Off on Was Yesterday’s Rally the ‘Real Thing” or Was Something Sneaky Afoot?

Will It Be a Crash, New All Time Highs, Something Else? Let’s Find Out!

By Graham Summers, MBA

You’re no doubt confused by the market’s action of the last week. Are we about to see a waterfall crash… or are stocks about to explode higher to new highs? 

The answer is probably neither. 

Markets are tricky things. More often than not, their goal is to induce the maximum amount of suffering to the maximum number of investors.

So let’s dive in together and sort this out.

On a daily and weekly basis, the S&P 500 is now trending down. The market broke below its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since the March 2020 lows. That’s a BIG deal and suggests a new bear market is here.

However, on a monthly basis, the S&P 500 can still end January above the all-important 10-monthly moving average (MMA)at 4,427. This is a BIG deal for the bulls because every time the market has broken that line in the last five years, a bear market has hit, with stocks losing 20%-30% of their value quite rapidly.

Where does this leave us?

Well we’re likely to see the bulls push to end January (today) with the market above 4,417. After that, I wouldn’t see surprised to see total chaos in the markets with prices whip-sawing this way and that… much as they did last week.

However, the trend is DOWN which opens the door to some nasty drops in the future. The average bear market is 9-10 months and sees stocks lose 30% of their value. However, in recent years the drops have happened much faster than that.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Will It Be a Crash, New All Time Highs, Something Else? Let’s Find Out!

Warning: Stocks Are About to Start a Bear Market

Stocks have taken out critical support.

The Russell 2000 is perhaps the “junkiest” index among stock indexes with 31% of its companies NOT making profits. So, if the Fed is indeed looking to deflate the stock market bubble, this would be the first index to collapse.

Sure enough, it is collapsing. As I write this Friday morning, it has taken out critical support. By the look of things, we will be unwinding the entire stock market move of the last 24 months, returning to pre-COVID levels.

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A similar price move in the S&P 500 sees it at 3,400, or possibly even lower. That’s a full 20% down from here.

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For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Warning: Stocks Are About to Start a Bear Market

Stocks Bounce… But is Another Bloodbath Around the Corner?

The bounce hit as I had expected, but I must be honest… things got pretty hairy there for a few hours on Monday.

The issue now is where do we go from here?

Stocks are still in deep trouble.

First and foremost, the S&P 500 remains below both its 50-day moving average (DMA) and its 200-DMA. Those lines now present major resistance to any upside move. Remember, this marks the FIRST time stocks have broken below these levels since the March 2020 Crash.

Secondly, the trend, as illustrated by the 50-day moving average (DMA), is now DOWN. This again marks the first time this has been the case since the March 2020 Crash. Yes, there have been periods in which the 50-DMA was flat or sideways, but DOWN? This is the first.

So, you can see the predicament here. Regardless of the bounce the trend is DOWN and it will take considerable time and strength to reverse this. Against this backdrop the Fed is now tightening. Sure, it might not be as much tightening as everyone fears, but it’s still tightening.

The three times the Fed tried this, stocks crashed.

Those occasions were:

  • The Tech Bubble of the late ‘90s.
  • The Housing Bubble of the mid ‘00s.
  • The attempted normalization of late 2017-2018.

What are the odds the Fed succeeds this time around… especially when you consider the size of this bubble relative to the others.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in Head Fake | Comments Off on Stocks Bounce… But is Another Bloodbath Around the Corner?

Stocks are on the ledge of a VERY large cliff.

Anytime the S&P 500 has taken out its 50-week moving average (WMA), it usually falls to the middle of its Bollinger Band, if not the 200-WMA. In chart terms below, anytime the S&P 500 takes out the red line, it drops to the blue dotted line if not the green line.

If stocks hold right here and now, then we have escaped a bear market by the skin of our teeth. If stocks DON’T hold right here and now, it’s a bear market and stocks will eventually drop another 10% if not 20%.

I’m talking about this:

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What happens right now is key. If stocks hold these gains, then this recent drop was likely just a plain vanilla sell-off to take out the excess froth in the markets. 

However, if, instead of holding those gains, stocks roll over and begin falling again, then we are likely at the start of a more pronounced breakdown and possibly a new bear market.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

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My Roadmap For Where Stocks Go From Here (And How to Profit)

Stocks took it on the chin last week, slicing through critical support at 4,480 on the S&P 500. All told, this sell-off has erased six months’ worth of gains bringing stocks back to the levels of last August 2021.

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The big question for investors this week is: where do we go from here?

First and foremost, the market is deeply oversold. The S&P 500 is well below the lower Bollinger Band on its daily chart. The market is also showing the lowest relative strength index (RSI) reading since the March 2020 crash. Yes, the market is as oversold as it was during the first wave of the global pandemic.

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This suggests a bounce is coming. It is highly unlikely stocks go straight down from here. Instead, we are likely to get a rally into this week’s FOMC on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 revisiting former support, if not breaking a little above it. I’ve drawn this out on the chart below.

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What happens there is key. If stocks hold those gains, then this recent drop was likely just a plain vanilla sell-off to take out the excess froth in the markets.

However, if, instead of holding those gains, stocks roll over and begin falling again, then we are likely at the start of a more pronounced breakdown and possibly a new bear market.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on My Roadmap For Where Stocks Go From Here (And How to Profit)

Is the $USD Warning That Inflation is About to Become BAD News For Stocks?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday, I outlined how the markets are likely at a very critical point regarding inflation.

By quick way of review:

1)    Stocks initially love inflation because it boosts results (companies don’t report inflation-adjusted returns, so any increase in product pricing due to inflation is instead reflected as “growth”).

2)    This love relationship eventually turns to hatred as inflation leads to higher operating costs, which squeeze profit margins.

In yesterday’s article, I illustrated how this played out during the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s. 

At that time, stocks initially roared higher as inflation initially boosted corporate results. However, by the time 1974 rolled around and inflation (as measured by the consumer price index or CPI) hit 11%, stocks began to crash, eventually losing ~50%.

I mention all of this because it is highly likely that something similar is about to manifest in the markets today.

Stocks have erupted higher on the back of inflation, courtesy of $11 trillion in Fed QE/ fiscal stimulus from the Federal Government between March 2020 and today.

However, inflation is now taking a turn for the worse. And, as usual, the signs are showing up in the currency markets first.

The Fed is in the process of ending its QE program. Fed officials have also signaled that they intend to raise rates three or four times this year. All of this should be highly U.S. dollar positive.

And yet… the $USD is breaking down.

The greenback has taken out key support (green line in the chart below). Even worse, it’s also broken its bull market trendline (blue line in the chart below).

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This is a MAJOR signal that the Fed’s actions are not enough. Put another way, the Fed is behind the curve on inflation! This is extremely negative for stocks as it means inflation is getting out of control (just like in 1974).

So, what would a similar, 1970s-style crisis look like today? The market is warning us, though few have noticed.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted in Inflation, stock collapse? | Comments Off on Is the $USD Warning That Inflation is About to Become BAD News For Stocks?

Are Stocks At a Major Turning Point When It Comes to Inflation?

By Graham Summers, MBA

We’ve now reached the point at which inflation will become a major problem.

Inflation is not inherently bad for stocks. The reason for this is that companies report growth in nominal terms, not in “real” or inflation-based terms.

Think of it this way: XYZ company sells widgets for $1.00. Then inflation hits and the company raises widget prices to $1.10. Even if the company sells the EXACT same number of widgets, revenues “grow” by 10%. After all, they don’t have to report that the 10% in growth was 100% due to inflation!

This is why stocks often spike higher when inflation initially hits. We saw this during the last major bout of inflation in the early 1970s. At that time, stocks roared higher, rising 50% while CPI, which measures inflation, gradually rose to 6.3%.

However, the relationship between stocks and inflation quickly goes from love to hate once costs rise fast enough that profit margins are squeezed. To return to the 1970s, this started in 1973 as CPI hit 11%. From that point onward, stocks crashed losing almost 50%.

I bring all of this up because we are likely about to witness something similar today. Stocks have erupted higher on the back of inflation, courtesy of $11 trillion in Fed QE/ fiscal stimulus from the Federal Government between March 2020 and today.

This is the good part of inflation. And by the look of things, it’s about to go sour. Indeed, we are getting clear signs that costs are about to explode higher for corporations. 

Profit margins are at all-time highs (there’s nowhere to go but down), while real wages (incomes adjusted for inflation) are DEEPLY negative.

Workers are now demanding higher wages. This means higher operating costs for corporations, which in turns means lower profit margins.

In simple terms, the clock is ticking for stocks. Sure, they might not crash this week, but another bloodbath is coming. The markets will soon be a sea of red. And the losses will be staggering.

The markets are warning us, but few have noticed.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate LITERAL FORTUNES.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on Are Stocks At a Major Turning Point When It Comes to Inflation?

The Fed Just “Rang the Bell”… Are You Ready For What’s Coming?

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Fed just “rang the bell.”

One of the oldest adages in investing is that “they don’t ring a bell at the top.”

This is quite misleading.

While it’s true it’s impossible to predict the exact day of a market top, what is totally false is that there are not clear signals that a top is being made.

The clearest one of all, is the Fed aggressively tightening monetary policy. Indeed, the last two major bear markets (2000-2003 and 2007-2009) were both triggered by the Fed.

Why?

Because the markets move in similar cycles. And for over 20 years, the most important cycle has been the following:

1) The Fed ignores clear and obvious signs of a bubble for far too long.

2) The Fed is finally forced to act to attempt to deflate the bubble waaaaay past the point at which a soft landing is possible.

3) The bubble bursts in spectacular fashion triggering a crisis.

This was the case in 2000, 2007, 2018, and it’s the case today.

Yesterday Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed this with the following statement made to the U.S. Senate.

“If we see inflation persisting at higher levels, longer than expected, if we have to raise interest rates more over time, then we will.”

This is coming from the same Fed Chair who told the markets for the last year that inflation was “transitory” and didn’t require the Fed to act.

So what changed?

Inflation is now a politically toxic issue for voters. 2022 is an election year. And a CNN poll from December shows that the the #1 issue for voters is higher prices.

In this context, the Fed is receiving tremendous pressure from the Biden administration to stop inflation NOW. We know this because Fed Chair Jerome Powell only changed his tune on inflation AFTER he was nominated for a second term by President Biden.

That’s the bell.

Both the White House and the Fed want inflation killed. This means the Fed must now act aggressively to try to stop it by hiking rates faster and more frequently than most investors believe.

Given the Fed’s success with deflating the last two bubbles (both instances lead to crises), what are the odds it is able to succeed this time without a crash?

Put another way… what are the odds this time it’s any different?

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on The Fed Just “Rang the Bell”… Are You Ready For What’s Coming?

What Does the Market Look Like Without Fed Interventions?

By Graham Summers, MBA

The markets are about to lose their “training wheels.”

And by the look of things, it won’t be pretty.

On March 23, 2020, during the depths of the market crash triggered by the economic shutdowns, the Fed moved to backstop everything.

And I do mean EVERYTHING.

The Fed On Monday March 23nd, 2020, the Fed staged an Emergency Meeting during which it announced that it would be expanding its $700 billion QE program to “unlimited”… meaning it would print as much money as was needed.

It also announced that it would be using this unlimited QE to fund various credit facilities that would buy: 

·      Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

·      U.S. Treasuries

·      Corporate debt or debt issued by corporations.

·      Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).

·      Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).

·      Certificates of Deposit (CDs)

·      Student Loans

·      Auto Loans 

Since that time, stocks have ripped higher in a near straight line… 

Diagram

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The Fed, nearly two years later, finally decided to its time to end the interventions. Within eight weeks its current QE program will be over. And the Fed intends to start raising rates soon after.

So, what will the market look like once the Fed stops its nearly weekly interventions?

High yield credit is already offering a preview. The Fed stopped intervening in this market weeks ago.

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The signs are clear… another bloodbath is just around the corner.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards,

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on What Does the Market Look Like Without Fed Interventions?

Three Charts That Warn Another Bloodbath is Just Around the Corner!

The technical damage of the last week has been severe.

The S&P 500 broke below critical support at 4,705 with heavy selling this week. That’s bad news.  Even worse, the market has failed to reclaim that level during yesterday’s bounce.

This means that what used to be support is now resistance. The fact the bulls couldn’t reclaim this level means we are going lower.

How much lower?

Breadth is telling us to expect 4,600.

Chart, line chart, histogram

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High yield credit says it will be even lower at 4,500.

Chart, line chart

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The signs are clear… another bloodbath is just around the corner.

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guidecan show you how.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted in stock collapse? | Comments Off on Three Charts That Warn Another Bloodbath is Just Around the Corner!

Don’t Worry, the Truly Life Changing Gains Haven’t Arrived Yet!

By Graham Summers, MBA

Ignore the goldilocks crowd, the inflationary tidal wave is only just getting started.

Everyone likes to talk about inflation, but very few people actually understand it. This goes for central bankers as well as the talking heads in the financial media.

Wait a minute… aren’t central bankers supposed to be EXPERTS on inflation?

Nope. And they’ve admitted as much publicly.

Janet Yellen, the former Fed Chair who now serves as Treasury Secretary to the Biden Administration admitted back in September 2017 that the Fed really has no idea how inflation works. 

Speaking to the National Association for Business Economics in Cleveland on Setpmerb 26th 2017, then Fed Chair Yellen stated the following whopper:

My colleagues and I may have misjudged the strength of the labor market, the degree to which longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with our inflation objective, or even the fundamental forces driving inflation.

This is central banker speak for “we really don’t know what we’re talking about when it comes to inflation and what causes it.” 

Bear in mind… this was YEARS before the real inflationary tidal wave hit in 2021. Unfortunately, it appears the Fed hasn’t figured much out concerning inflation during that time.

To wit, in October of this year, after claiming that inflation was “transitory” for months and months, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell finally admitted that inflation is “well above target” and that This is a different situation from what the new Fed framework is designed to address.”

At the end of the day, the current inflationary tidal wave is quite simple.

Regular Demand + Fewer Goods and Services =HOT INFLATION

Americans are returning to normal life as the economy reopens. And in some areas of the economy, demand is exploding higher as people have decided to stop putting off their dream purchases due to the “You Only Live Once (YOLO)” mentality the shutdowns helped foster.

This demand is not being met by supply.

Why?

Because shutting down the economy disrupted the supply chain and caused a major labor shortage. Having been paid to not work for the better part of 18 months, many Americans have decided not to go back to work… or to change careers from their previous work entirely.

This is happening in numerous sectors of the economy. 

There are 8.6% fewer coal miners working today than there were BEFORE the pandemic. The oil industry is experiencing an even worse situation: only 1/3rd of the 100,000 employees let got by the industry in 2020 have returned to work.

Oil is a SYSTEMIC item for the economy. Oil or oil derivatives are present in lipstick, Vaseline, solar panels, polyester (stain resistant clothes), chewing gum, crayons, Aspirin, pantyhose, sneakers, detergent, CDs, concrete/cement, plastics of any kind, food additives, fertilizers, pesticides, candles, milk cartons, pen ink, and more.

So you can imagine the impact that fewer oil employees will have on things.

Dock workers aren’t returning to the workforce either. As I write this there are dozens of cargo ships sitting off the coast of the U.S. waiting to be unloaded. And many of those containers that are unloaded don’t go anywhere because the trucking industry is also experiencing a labor shortage. 

Again, Regular Demand + Fewer Goods and Services =HOT INFLATION

And the craziest thing about this whole mess is that the same policymakers who created it, can’t do a thing to fix it.

The Fed, which has printed over $4 TRILLION to prop up the financial system can’t print new workers keen to return to work, keeping interest rates at zero doesn’t make oil prices come down, and spending hundreds of billions of dollars on QE per month doesn’t result in cargo ships being unloaded and life returning to normal.

Similarly, the DC crowd has no idea how to fix the mess they made.

The Department of Energy Secretary, the highest official for the energy industry in the U.S. doesn’t even know how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumes per day. The Secretary of Transportation is on paternity leave during the single greatest supply chain crisis in decades. The President thinks releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over several months will lower gas prices… when the U.S. consumes 22 million barrels of oil per day.

It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragic. And the reality is that it has unleashed an inflationary storm that is giving investors a ONCE IN A LIFETIME opportunity to get filthy rich from government incompetence.

During the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s, smart investors locked in gains in the QUADRUPLE digits (1,000% or higher). And THAT version of inflation was the kind the Fed could stop!

So you can imagine the profit potential of this crisis today.

I outline five investments that could explode higher as inflation rips through the financial system in a Special Investment Report titled Survive the Inflationary Storm.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards,

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on Don’t Worry, the Truly Life Changing Gains Haven’t Arrived Yet!

Inflation Has Created a Once In a Lifetime Opportunity

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday, I outlined the dark truth about the economic shutdowns of 2020.

That truth?

That the shutdowns have unleashed an inflationary tidal wave.

Central bankers have been trying to create inflation for years. They’ve printed over $20 trillion in new money. And they’ve cut interest rates over 800 times. But inflation never fully showed up.

Then we shut down the economy and BOOM! inflation appeared.

Why?

Because shutting down the economy damaged/broke supply chains. And forcing people to stay home while scaring the heck out of them with a virus made them decide to not go back work even when the “all clear” was signaled. In any parts of the economy (coal mining, oil and gas, shipping/ trucking, etc.) people have decided to change career paths entirely.   

As a result of this, today we are facing both a supply chain crisis and a labor shortage.

BOTH are inflationary.

Why?

Because both mean fewer goods and services are available.

Meanwhile, demand is returning to normal as the economy reopens. In some areas, demand is exploding higher as people have decided to stop putting off their dream purchases due to the “You Only Live Once (YOLO)” mentality the shutdowns helped foster.

Regular Demand + Fewer Goods and Services =HOT INFLATION

The craziest thing about this whole mess is that the same policymakers who created it, can’t do a thing to fix it.

The Fed, which has printed over $4 TRILLION to prop up the financial system can’t print new workers keen to return to work, keeping interest rates at zero doesn’t make oil prices come down, and spending hundreds of billions of dollars on QE per month doesn’t result in cargo ships being unloaded and life returning to normal. 

Similarly, the DC crowd has no idea how to fix the mess they made.

The Department of Energy Secretary, the highest official for the energy industry in the U.S. doesn’t even know how many barrels of oil the U.S. consumes per day. The Secretary of Transportation is on paternity leave during the single greatest supply chain crisis in decades. The President thinks releasing 50 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over several months will lower gas prices… when the U.S. consumes 22 million barrels of oil per day.

It would be hilarious if it wasn’t so tragic. And the reality is that it has unleashed an inflationary storm that is giving investors a ONCE IN A LIFETIME opportunity to get filthy rich from government incompetence.

During the last major bout of inflation in the 1970s, smart investors locked in gains in the QUADRUPLE digits (1,000% or higher). And THAT version of inflation was the kind the Fed could stop!

So you can imagine the profit potential of this crisis today.

I outline five investments that could explode higher as inflation rips through the financial system in a Special Investment Report titled Survive the Inflationary Storm.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards,

Posted in Inflation | Comments Off on Inflation Has Created a Once In a Lifetime Opportunity