Month: October 2015

Oct

2015

The Fed is “Testing the Waters” for NIRP

The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.
At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Rather than simply beginning to taper the programs, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hinted that the Fed was contemplating a taper in June.

The markets reacted sharply with bond yields rising.

The Fed then spent six months allowing the market to get used to the idea of a taper, before the actual taper finally began in December 2013.

Put another way, the Fed gave the markets a full six months to adjust to a change in policy, before actually implementing said change. This only highlights just how focused the Fed is on market reactions to its policies.

In the simplest of terms: the Fed will NEVER surprise the market. This is particularly true now that the Fed is in the political cross hairs due to ample evidence showing its policies have increased wealth inequality.

If the Fed is planning on something new, particularly something that might have political repercussions, we’ll see numerous hints and suggestions well before the actual policy is unveiled.

With that in mind, we need to consider the number of Fed officials who have recently been hinting at Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

First we find that a Fed official hinted at NIRP during the Fed’s September 2015 meeting.

Then, on October 9^th, Fed President Bill Dudley stating that negative rates were “an option” though not a “relevant conversation” right now.

This statement was followed up by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stating point blank that the Fed should “consider negative rates.”

The Fed has never once hinted at or discussed NIRP during its policy meetings. Then, in the span of three weeks, we’ve not only had an anonymous Fed official state that he or she believes NIRP is coming to the US, but two highly visible Presidents have called to NIRP consideration.

This is simply part of the Fed’s larger War on Cash.

For six years straight, the Fed has been trying to “trash” cash.

First it cut interest rates to zero… making it so that savings deposits produced almost nothing in the way of interest income. Consider that at current rates, a retiree with $1 million in savings earns a measly $2,500 per year in interest income.

The Fed’s hope was that by making it painful for savers to sit in cash, said savers would move into risk assets such as bonds and stocks. This has worked in that stocks are now in one of, if not THE biggest bubbles in history… while bonds are trading at yields never before seen outside of wartime.

However, the Fed overlooked two outlets for investors who didn’t want to be forced into risk. They are: Gold bullion and physical cash.

The Fed has been dealing with bullion via clear manipulation of prices for years (that’s an article for another time). And now it is moving to make physical cash obsolete.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings in the coming months through NIRP, and possibly even by outlawing physical cash.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Oct

2015

The Six Year “Grand Delusion” is Ending

For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis.

All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5^th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there is no way that things are better now. After all, we’ve just added another $10 trillion in debt to the US system.

However, there is an AWFUL lot of money at stake in believing these lies. So the media and the banks and the politicians were happy to promote them. Indeed, one could very easily argue that nearly all of the wealth and power held by those at the top of the economy stem from this fiction.

So it’s little surprise that no one would admit the facts: that the Fed and other Central Banks not only don’t have a clue how to fix the problem, but that they actually have almost no incentive to do so.

So here are the facts:

The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.

The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.

Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.

Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.

The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.

The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work. They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

The situation is clear: the 2008 Crisis was the warm up. The next Crisis will be THE REAL Crisis. The Crisis in which Central Banking itself will fail.

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Bail-Ins and Frozen Accounts Are Coming to a Country Near You!

In the last 24 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis.

These moves will be sold as “for the public’s good,” when they happen. But the reality is that it’s all about stopping people from moving their capital into actual physical cash.

The whole template for this was set out in Cyprus in 2013. The quick timeline for what happened in Cyprus is as follows:

June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.
November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).
February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.
March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.
March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.
March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.
March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.
March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.
March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.
March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).

The most important thing I want you to focus on is how lies and propaganda were spread for months leading up to the collapse. Then in the space of a single weekend, the whole mess came unhinged and accounts were frozen.

One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out (more on this in a moment).

There were no warnings that this was coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about this. Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system, NOT on fixing the system’s problems. Indeed, they cannot even openly discuss the system’s problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them.

For that reason, you will never and I repeat NEVER see a Central banker, Bank CEO, or politician admit openly what is happening in the financial system. Even middle managers and lower level employees won’t talk about it because A) they don’t know the truth concerning their institutions or B) they could be fired for warning others.

Please take a few minutes to digest what I’m telling you here. You will not be warned of the risks to your wealth by anyone in a position of power in the political financial hierarchy (with the exception of folks like Ron Paul who are usually marginalized by the media).

Moreover, when the Crisis DOES hit, it will be much, much harder to get your money out.

Consider the recent regulations implemented by SEC to stop withdrawals from happening should another crisis occur.

The regulation is called Rules Provide Structural and Operational Reform to Address Run Risks in Money Market Funds. It sounds relatively innocuous until you get to the below quote:

Redemption Gates – Under the rules, if a money market fund’s level of weekly liquid assets falls below 30 percent, a money market fund’s board could in its discretion temporarily suspend redemptions (gate). To impose a gate, the board of directors would find that imposing a gate is in the money market fund’s best interests. A money market fund that imposes a gate would be required to lift that gate within 10 business days, although the board of directors could determine to lift the gate earlier. Money market funds would not be able to impose a gate for more than 10 business days in any 90-day period…

Also see…

Government Money Market Funds – Government money market funds would not be subject to the new fees and gates provisions. However, under the proposed rules, these funds could voluntarily opt into them, if previously disclosed to investors.

http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370542347

In simple terms, if the system is ever under duress again, Money market funds can lock in capital (meaning you can’t get your money out) for up to 10 days. If the financial system was healthy and stable, there is no reason the regulators would be implementing this kind of reform.

This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to incinerate savings to force investors away from cash and into riskier assets.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Prepare to be Taxed: Wealth Tax and Carry Taxes Are Coming

Prepare to be taxed.

Behind the veneer of “all is well” being promoted by both world Governments and the Mainstream Media, the political elite have begun implementing legislation that will permit them to freeze accounts and use your savings to prop up insolvent banks.

This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. It’s basic fact.

In the last 16 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis. I expect more countries to join this movement. The IMF actually openly suggested it as the best means of dealing with future crises in the financial system.

Outside of this, we’ve also seen the beginning of moves to ban the use of physical cash in France, Spain, Uruguay, and elsewhere… as well as a growing chorus of experts calling for negative interest rates and possibly even a “carry tax” on cash itself.

Why is this?

The world will soon be facing a tsunami of defaults on bad debts.

This will include municipal or local government defaults, governments “defaulting” on promises they’ve made to the people (e.g. Social Security, Medicaid), a default on the social contract between society and politicians such as the one in Cyprus (a default on the notions of private property and Democracy), stealth defaults on debts in the form of inflation and finally, of course, outright sovereign defaults.

The sovereign defaults will come last; all other options will be tried first.

The reason for this is that sovereign bonds (think of US Treasuries, German Bunds or Japanese Government bonds) are the senior most collateral posted by banks for the hundreds of trillions of Dollars worth of derivatives bets they’ve made with each other.

The minute an actual sovereign default occurs in Europe, Asia or the US, then the large global banks will all be vaporized. End of story. As is now clear, the Central banks do not care about ordinary citizens. They only care about propping up the big banks.

This is why Cyprus decided to default on the social contract with its people and steal their funds rather than simply instigating a formal default. And it’s why in general we’re going to see Governments implementing more and more theft in the form of “taxes” (Cyprus called its theft a tax) in the future.

Make no mistake, the words “wealth tax” mean freezing of assets and then taking some of your savings. Anyone with more than $250,000 in a bank account should be prepared for this. It has happened in Cyprus. It will happen elsewhere too.

This will be sold to the public as either an attempt to tax those with a lot of money because it’s only fair that they put in more to bailout the nation OR as a form of financial terrorism e.g. “either you take a 7% cut on your deposits and the bank stays afloat or the bank crashes and you lose everything.”

This will be spreading throughout the world, GUARANTEED.

Spain, Canada (which allegedly has the safest banks in the world), New Zealand and now even Germany have already begun discussing confiscation schemes for depositors in the event of a banking crisis. The US and UK have also developed similar schemes to freeze “systemically important” financial entities during the next crisis.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Is the Rally About to End?

The following is an excerpt from Private Wealth Advisory...

The stock rally is at a critical juncture.

As I’ve mentioned before, a key momentum signal I like to watch is the 12-month moving average (MMA).

Over the last 20 years, this has been an excellent gauge for whether or not the market is in a bull market or breaking down. We had a few “false breakdowns” in 2010 and 2011. However, those signals were negated when the Fed launched QE 2 and Operation Twist respectively: both policies ignited stocks higher. This will not be the case this time (more on this later).

As I noted back in early September, Bear Markets do not happen all at once. EVERY time a major top has formed and stocks have taken out this line, we’ve had a stock rally to “kiss” the line one last time before the bear market really took hold.

Back in September, I forecast that we’d have a serious stock rally to “kiss” this line. Having chopped sideways for a month, stocks have finally staged that rally. We just barely poked above the 12-MMA last week.

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What comes next is anyone’s guess. However, the fact remains that the last two violations of the 12-month moving average (2010 and 2011) were reversed by stock rallies kicked off by new Fed monetary policies (QE 2 and Operation Twist, respectively).

In the current political climate the Fed will be unable to do this. Private Wealth Advisory is not a political newsletter, but in a market climate in which Central Bank actions are the primary drivers of asset prices, we have to consider politics on occasion, at least in terms of their impact on Central Bank decision-making.

With that in mind, I want to note that wealth inequality has become one of the biggest issues for the 2016 US Presidential election. This topic has ensnared the Federal Reserve as a number of media outlets have finally caught on that QE and other Fed policies have in fact exacerbated wealth inequality.

With that in mind, it is highly unlikely that the Fed will be able to launch a new QE program or other major monetary policy anytime in the next 13 months (the election is November 2016).

Unless this stock rally can continue to go vertical, then we’re doomed to establish new lows. Stocks are sharply overbought and more overvalued by most metrics than almost any other time in history(only the Tech Bubble featured more ridiculous valuations).

Meanwhile, both corporate earnings and revenues are rolling over as the US re-enters a recession. My view: this rally is on borrowed time.

If you’re looking for actionable investment strategies to profit from this trend we highly recommend you take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

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Indeed, while other investors are getting whipsawed by the markets…we’ve just locked in two more winners, bringing our winning streak to 35 straight winning trades!

All told 40 of our last 41 trades MADE MONEY.

However, I cannot maintain this track record with thousands upon thousands of investors following these recommendations.

So tonight at midnight, we are closing the doors on our offer to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $0.98.

To lock in one of the remaining $0.98 slots…

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Will China’s Meltdown Trigger a Crash?

Let’s talk briefly about China.

China is thought to be the great growth story of the post-2008 era. China’s economy not only bottomed before the developed world, but by most accounts, China was thought to be the engine that pulled the world out of recession, thanks to its near-clocklike hitting of 7%+ in GDP growth per year.

Today, China remains central to the notion that the world is in recovery. As Japan’s Abenomics gamble sputters out economically while Europe continues to deteriorate and seems at risk of even breaking apart, it is China and the US that are held up to be the last remaining sources of economic growth for global economy.

Of the two, China is the only one thought to be growing at a significant pace. The US’s “recovery” (if it can be called that) is effectively flat lining, producing data points that are normally associated with a recession.

China, on the other hand, is believed to be growing at 7%: not as rapid as the 9% growth we’re used to seeing, but still dramatically higher than any of large country.

Only the whole thing is bogus.

———————————————————————–

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The largest investor fortunes in history were made during crises.

For that reason, we’ve launched a special options trading service designed specifically to profit from the coming crisis.

It’s called THE CRISIS TRADER and already it’s locking in triple digit winners including gains of 151%, 182%, 261% and even 436%!

And the REAL crisis hasn’t even started yet!

We have an success rate of 72%(meaning you make money on more than 7 out of 10 trades)…and thanks to careful risk control, we haven’t had a losing trade since JUNE.

Our next trade goes out shortly… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

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Firstly, China’s economic data points are fraught with accounting gimmicks. Indeed, they are so far removed from reality that back in 2007, current First Vice Premiere of China, Li Keqiang, admitted to the US ambassador to China that ALL Chinese data, outside of electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending is for “reference only.”

Put another way, if you want to get an ACCURATE picture of the true state of China’s economy, you have to ignore GDP and most other metrics, and electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending.

Of the three, rail freight volumes is the most significant as it is the hardest to fake. And according to China’s rail freight volumes, China’s economy is collapsing to levels on par with those last seen during the Asia Financial Crisis (H/T Ben Woodward)

Moreover, China’s banking system is imploding thanks to the bursting of its real estate, credit, and stock market bubbles. The Central Bank just cut interest rates again (the sixth time in a year) but you cannot put a bubble back together once it has burst.

China is only the latest country to grow desperate. Globally the economy is once again contracting. Interest rates cuts and QE will be launched… but they won’t start a new bull market.

The great crisis has begun. And smart investors are preparing NOW before the Crash hits.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter that can help you profit from the markets.

Indeed, while other investors are getting whipsawed by the markets…we’ve just locked in two more winners, bringing our winning streak to 35 straight winning trades!

All told 40 of our last 41 trades MADE MONEY.

However, I cannot maintain this track record with thousands upon thousands of investors following these recommendations.

So tonight at midnight, we are closing the doors on our offer to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $0.98.

To lock in one of the remaining $0.98 slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Banks Are Now Openly Rejecting Deposits… Is a Cash Ban Next?

The Central Banks hate physical cash. So much so they there will likely try to ban it in the near future.

You see, almost all of the “wealth” in the financial system is digital in nature.

The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.

When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.

In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.

The US bond market (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.

Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.

Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.

When looking over these data points, the first thing that jumps out at the viewer is that the vast bulk of “money” in the system is in the form of digital loans or credit (non-physical debt).

Put another way, actual physical money or cash (as in bills or coins you can hold in your hand) comprises less than 1% of the “money” in the financial system.

As far as the Central Banks are concerned, this is a good thing because if investors/depositors were ever to try and convert even a small portion of this “wealth” into actual physical bills, the system would implode (there simply is not enough actual cash).

Remember, the current financial system is based on debt. The benchmark for “risk free” money in this system is not actual cash but US Treasuries.

In this scenario, when the 2008 Crisis hit, one of the biggest problems for the Central Banks was to stop investors from fleeing digital wealth for the comfort of physical cash. Indeed, the actual “thing” that almost caused the financial system to collapse was when depositors attempted to pull $500 billion out of money market funds.

A money market fund takes investors’ cash and plunks it into short-term highly liquid debt and credit securities. These funds are meant to offer investors a return on their cash, while being extremely liquid (meaning investors can pull their money at any time).

This works great in theory… but when $500 billion in money was being pulled (roughly 24% of the entire market) in the span of four weeks, the truth of the financial system was quickly laid bare: that digital money is not in fact safe.

To use a metaphor, when the money market fund and commercial paper markets collapsed, the oil that kept the financial system working dried up. Almost immediately, the gears of the system began to grind to a halt.

When all of this happened, the global Central Banks realized that their worst nightmare could in fact become a reality: that if a significant percentage of investors/ depositors ever tried to convert their “wealth” into cash (particularly physical cash) the whole system would implode.

As a result of this, virtually every monetary action taken by the Fed since this time has been devoted to forcing investors away from cash and into risk assets. The most obvious move was to cut interest rates to 0.25%, rendering the return on cash to almost nothing.

However, in their own ways, the various QE programs and Operation Twist have all had similar aims: to force investors away from cash, particularly physical cash.

After all, if cash returns next to nothing, anyone who doesn’t want to lose their purchasing power is forced to seek higher yields in bonds or stocks.

The Fed’s economic models predicted that by doing this, the US economy would come roaring back. The only problem is that it hasn’t. In fact, by most metrics, the US economy has flat-lined for several years now, despite the Fed having held ZIRP for 5-6 years and engaged in three rounds of QE.

As a result of this… mainstream economists at CitiGroup, the German Council of Economic Experts, and bond managers at M&G have suggested doing away with cash entirely.

If you think this sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory, consider that France just banned any transaction over €1,000 Euros from using physical cash. Spain has already banned transactions over €2,500. Uruguay has banned transactions over $5,000. And on and on.

This will be coming to the US in the near future. Already, the big banks (the ones with the closest ties to the Federal Reserve) have begun turning away deposits OR charging them.

State Street Corp. , the Boston bank that manages assets for institutional investors, for the first time has begun charging some customers for large dollar deposits, people familiar with the matter said. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the nation’s largest bank by assets, has cut unwanted deposits by more than $150 billion this year, in part by charging fees…

And here’s another big “tell”…

“At some point you wonder whether there will be a shortage of financial institutions willing to take on these balances,” said Kelli Moll, head of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP’s hedge-fund practice in New York, saying that where to hold cash has become an increasing topic of conversation as hedge funds are shown the door by longtime banking counterparties.

So where is the physical cash meant to go?

Jerome Schneider, head of Pacific Investment Management Co.’s short-term and funding desk, which advises corporate and institutional clients, said that as a result of the bank actions, he and his customers have discussed as cash alternatives boosting investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, ultrashort-duration bond funds and money-market funds.

When it comes to cash, Mr. Schneider said, “Clients have been put on warning.”

Source: Wall Street Journal.

This is just the beginning. Indeed… we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the US Federal Reserve plans to incinerate savings.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Oct

2015

More QE Will Not Stop the Coming Crash

The markets are surging this morning based on hype and hope of more QE from Central Banks. This view is overlook the fact that EVERY collapse follows a pattern:

1) The initial drop

2) The bounce to “kiss” former support

3) The real implosion.

We’ve passed #1 and are in the middle of #2. Next up is #3.

Abroad, the damage has been even worse with China, Brazil, and the Emerging Market complex as a whole imploding.

China’s stock bubble has burst.

Brazil has taken out its bull market trendline.

As have the Emerging Markets as a whole.

The hype and hope of more QE misses the point…

The bull market of the last six years is over.

We will get bounces, like the one that has occurred in the last two weeks. But the trend is now down.

Already investors have begun to realize that Central Banks have lost control of the markets. This is why they erased months’ worth of gains in four days’ time.

Indeed, at this point, it looks as though the END GAME has begun, ushering in a crisis that will make 2008 look like a joke.

Smart investors are preparing now, BEFORE it hits.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter that can help you profit from the markets.

Indeed, while other investors are getting whipsawed by the markets…we’ve just locked in two more winners, bringing our winning streak to 35 straight winning trades!

All told 40 of our last 41 trades MADE MONEY.

However, I cannot maintain this track record with thousands upon thousands of investors following these recommendations.

So tonight at midnight, we are closing the doors on our offer to try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days for just $0.98.

To lock in one of the remaining $0.98 slots…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

The Greatest Central Banking Con Job in History

One of the greatest con jobs in history was convincing ordinary people that Central Bankers care about the “economy” or Main Street.

Aside from the complete lack of relevance that Main Street has for Central Bankers from a professional perspective (more on this in a moment), when do you think was the last time that Janet Yellen or her ilk spent an evening with non-banker/financial types? Years ago? Decades ago?

Yellen lives in a super-affluent, gated part of Washington DC. And even within that subset of the US population she lives in a higher echelon: her entourage of security annoys her wealthy neighbors… though I suspect part of the annoyance stems from jealousy.

Regarding professional significance… why would Janet Yellen care about ordinary people? They’re just data points in her financial models. Ordinary people didn’t place her at the Fed (the big banks did). And they didn’t place her as Fed Chair (the financial/ political elite did… with the express intent of gaining future favors).

Think of it this way… imagine there was a super cartel of English Professors who controlled what words you or I could use in daily conversation. These individuals literally could change the structure of the human language if they wanted… removing words or adding words at random.

Now imagine that they randomly pick out a low level English Professor who they elevate to being the face of their organization. Do you think this professor would give a damn about how her decisions/ words affected speech? She literally was made one of the most powerful people in the world by this cartel.

This is case worldwide. Most Central Bankers came up from the Too Big To Fails or Primary Dealers (or they are academics like Yellen or Bernanke who get their first taste of the “real world” when they’re literally running the financial system).

Literally their entire personal net worth… their professional clout… and their sense of accomplishment was derived from working at these organizations.

And somehow they’re supposed to give a hoot about Joe the Plumber or Bob the Boilermaker? They don’t even deal with those people face to face when they have a problem with their homes. “Hello this is Mario Draghi… the man who controls the currency in your economy… could you please come fix the sink?”

This is why Yellen, Draghi and the like can say with a straight face that maintaining ZIRP or NIRP benefits the economy. It’s why they can spent trillions to bail out/prop up banks without batting an eyelid. It’s why no one who committed fraud went to jail. It’s why lying and cheating in the financial system is allowed… even applauded… because the ones lying and cheating are the same people who picked out/ promoted the regulators.

And this is why we’re heading for another Crisis… one that will be even bigger than 2008. The fraud that caused 2008 was not solved. Instead it was allowed to spread into the public sector. Today most Central Banks are sporting leverage ratios that would put Lehman Brothers (pre-crisis) to shame.

So the next time something breaks in the financial system… it won’t be just individual banks going belly up. It will be entire countries. What’s happened in Cyprus and Greece is coming to your neighborhood… wherever you are.

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare for the second round of the financial crisis, we offer a FREE investment report Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Guide that outlines easy, simple to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from a market downturn, but actually produce profits.

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Phoenix Capital Research

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Oct

2015

China’s Central Bank Loses Control… Who’s Next

ALL of the so called, “economic recovery” that began in 2009 has been based on the Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the collapse.

The first round of interventions (2007-early 2009) was performed in the name of saving the system. The second round (2010-2012) was done because it was generally believed that the first round hadn’t completed the task of getting the world back to recovery.

However, from 2012 onward, everything changed. At that point the Central Banks went “all in” on the Keynesian lunacy that they’d been employing since 2008. We no longer had QE plans with definitive deadlines. Instead phrases like “open-ended” and doing “whatever it takes” began to emanate from Central Bankers’ mouths.

However, the insanity was in fact greater than this. It is one thing to bluff your way through the weakest recovery in 80+ years with empty promises; but it’s another thing entirely to roll the dice on your entire country’s solvency just to see what happens.

In 2013, the Bank of Japan launched a single QE program equal to 25% of Japan’s GDP. This was unheard of in the history of the world. Never before had a country spent so much money relative to its size so rapidly… and with so little results: a few quarters of increased economic growth while household spending collapsed and misery rose alongside inflation.

This was the beginning of the end. Japan nearly broke its bond market launching this program (the circuit breakers tripped multiple times in that first week). However it wasn’t until last month that things truly became completely and utterly broken.

In May of 2015, China lost control of its stock market. Despite freezing the market, banning short-selling, arresting short-sellers, and injecting billions of Dollars per day into the markets, China’s stock market continues to implode.

Please let this sink in: a Central bank, indeed, one of the largest, most important Central Banks, has officially “lost control.”

This will not be a one-off event. With the Fed and other Central banks now leveraged well above 50-to-1, even those entities that were backstopping an insolvent financial system are themselves insolvent.

The Big Crisis, the one in which entire countries go bust, has begun. It will not unfold in a matter of weeks; these sorts of things take months to complete. But it has begun.

You can pick up a FREE copy at:

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Are Stocks About to Repeat the 1929 Crash?

In the early 2000s, Alan Greenspan was worried about deflation. So he hired Ben Bernanke, the self-proclaimed expert on the Great Depression from Princeton. The idea was that with Bernanke as his right hand man, Greenspan could put off deflation from hitting the US. Indeed, one of Bernanke’s first speeches was titled “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”

The US did briefly experience a bout of deflation from late 2007 to early 2009. To combat this, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke unleashed an unprecedented amount of Fed money. Remember, Bernanke claims to be an expert on the Great Depression, and his entire focus was to insure that the US didn’t repeat the era of the ‘30s again.

Yellen and Bernanke Are the Same

Current Fed Chair Janet Yellen is cut of the same cloth as Bernanke. And her efforts (along with Bernanke’s) aided and abetted by the most fiscally irresponsible Congress in history, have recreated an environment almost identical to that of the 1920s.

Let’s take a quick walk down history lane.

In the 1920s, most of Europe was bankrupt due to after effects of WWI. Germany in particular was completely insolvent due to the war and due to the war reparations foisted upon it by the Treaty of Versailles. Remember, at this time Germany was the second largest economy in the world (the US was the largest, then Germany, then the UK).

Germany attempted to deal with the economic implosion created by WWI by increasing social spending: social spending per resident grew from 20.5 Deutsche Marks in 1913 to 65 Deutsche Marks in 1929.

Since the country was broke, incomes and taxes remained low, forcing Germany to run massive deficits. As its debt loads swelled, the county cut interest rates and began to print money, hoping to inflate away its debs.

When the country lurched towards default, US and other banks loaned it money, doing anything they could to keep the country from defaulting on its debt. As a result of this and the US’s relative economic strength compared to most of Europe, capital flew from Europe to the US.

How the 1929 Crash Happened

This created a MASSIVE stock market bubble, arguably the second largest in history. From its bottom in 1921 to its peak in 1929, stocks rose over 400%. Things were so out of control that the Fed actually raised interest rates hoping to curb speculation.

The bubble burst as all bubbles do and stocks lost 90% of their value in a mere two years. This was the dreaded 1929 Crash.

Today, the environment is almost identical but for different reasons. The ECB first cut interest rates to negative in June 2014. Since that time capital has fled Europe and moved into the US because 1) interest rates here are still positive, albeit marginally, and 2) the US continues to be perceived as a safe-haven due to its allegedly strong economy.

This process has accelerated in 2015.

Globally, there have been over 20 interest rate cuts since the years started a mere 10 months ago.

Interest rates are now at record lows in Australia, Canada, Switzerland, Russia and India.

Many of these rates cuts have resulted in actual negative interest rates, particularly in Europe (Denmark, Sweden, and Switzerland).

Both the ECB and the Bank of Japan are actively engaging in QE programs forcing rates even lower.

All told, SEVEN of the 10 largest economies in the world are currently easing.

Because the US is neutral, money has been flowing into the country by the billions. A lot of it is moving into luxury real estate (particularly in LA and York), but a substantial amount has moved into stocks as well as the US Dollar.

Stocks Are Almost As Rich As They Were Before the 1929 Crash

As a result of this, the US stock market is trading at 1929-bubblesque valuations, with a CAPE of 27.34 (the 1929 CAPE was only slightly higher at 30. And when that bubble burst, stocks lost over 90% of their value in the span of 24 months.

Another Crash is coming… and smart investors would do well to prepare now before it hits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Oct

2015

Recession Watch: We’re Back in One

The Fed has now kept interest rates at zero for 81 months.

This is the longest period in the history of the Fed’s existence, lasting longer than even the 1938-1942 period of ZIRP.

And the US economy is moving back into recession. Consider that…

Industrial production fell five months straight in the first half of 2015. This has never happened outside of a recession.

Merchant Wholesalers’ Sales are in recession territory.

The Empire Manufacturing Survey is in recession territory.

All four of the Fed’s September Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings (Philadelphia, New York, Richmond, and Kansas City) came in at readings of sub-zero. This usually happens when you are already 4-5 months into a recession. (H/T Bill Hester)

Why do these issues matter?

Because they are happening at a time when interest rates are already at zero.

Never in history has the US entered a recession when rates were this low. And it spells serious trouble for the financial system going forward.

Firstly, with rates at zero, the Fed has next to no ammo to combat the contraction. Some Central Banks have recently cut rates into the negative. But this is politically impossible in the US, particularly with an upcoming Presidential election.

This ultimately leaves QE as the last tool in the Fed’s arsenal to address an economic contraction.

However, at $4.5 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet is already so monstrous that it has become a systemic risk in of itself. And the Fed knows this too… Janet Yellen, before she became Fed chair, was worried about exiting the Fed’s positions back when its balance sheet was only $1.3 trillion.

Moreover, it’s not clear that the Fed could launch another QE program at this point.

For one thing there is the upcoming Presidential election.

Regardless of one’s political affiliation, it is clear that wealth inequality has become one of the big issues for the election. With numerous media outlets catching on to the fact that QE exacerbates this, the Fed’s hands are tied unless we get a full on market meltdown.

So, the US economy is weakening at a time when the bar is set quite high for the Fed to enact any significant policy changes. With interest rates already at zero, the Fed cannot cut rates. And with Congress breathing down its neck and an election looming the Fed won’t be able to launch another QE program unless we experience a full-scale financial meltdown.

Thus, the Fed’s hands are tied… at a time when the economy is faltering and the stock market is beginning to weaken dramatically.

Another Crisis is brewing. Smart investors are preparing for it now while stocks are still holding up.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Oct

2015

Fed Experts Call for NIRP… is a Physical Cash Ban Next?

More and more “experts” are calling for Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.

At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Rather than simply beginning to taper the programs, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, hinted that the Fed was contemplating a taper in June.

The markets reacted sharply with bond yields rising.

The Fed then spent six months allowing the market to get used to the idea of a taper, before the actual taper finally began in December 2013.

If the Fed is planning on something new, particularly something that might have political repercussions, we’ll see numerous hints and suggestions well before the actual policy is unveiled.

With that in mind, we need to consider the number of Fed officials who have recently been hinting at Negative Interest Rate Policy or NIRP.

First we find that a Fed official hinted at NIRP during the Fed’s September 2015 meeting.
Then, on October 9^th, Fed President Bill Dudley stating that negative rates were “an option” though not a “relevant conversation” right now.
This statement was followed up by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota stating point blank that the Fed should “consider negative rates.”

This is simply part of the Fed’s larger War on Cash.

For six years straight, the Fed has been trying to “trash” cash.

However, the Fed overlooked two outlets for investors who didn’t want to be forced into risk. They are: Gold bullion and physical cash.

The Fed has been dealing with bullion via clear manipulation of prices for years (that’s an article for another time). And now it is moving to make physical cash obsolete.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE daily e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Oct

2015

Europe Shows the Template for Seizing Accounts

These moves will be sold as “for the public’s good,” when they happen. But the reality is that it’s all about stopping people from moving their capital into actual physical cash.

The whole template for this was set out in Cyprus in 2013. The quick timeline for what happened in Cyprus is as follows:

June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.
November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).
February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.
March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.
March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.
March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.
March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.
March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.
March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.
March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).

One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out (more on this in a moment).

Moreover, when the Crisis DOES hit, it will be much much harder to get your money out.

Consider the recent regulations implemented by SEC to stop withdrawals from happening should another crisis occur.

The regulation is called Rules Provide Structural and Operational Reform to Address Run Risks in Money Market Funds. It sounds relatively innocuous until you get to the below quote:

Also see

http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370542347

This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to incinerate savings to force investors away from cash and into riskier assets.

We detail this paper and outline three investment strategies you can implement

right now to protect your capital from the Fed’s sinister plan in our Special Report

Survive the Fed’s War on Cash.

We are making 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/cash.html

Best Regards

Phoenix Capital Research

Oct

2015

Governments Have Begun Moving to Ban Physical Cash

The Central Banks hate physical cash. So much so they there will likely try to ban it in the near future.

You see, almost all of the “wealth” in the financial system is digital in nature.

The total currency (actual cash in the form of bills and coins) in the US financial system is a little over $1.36 trillion.

When you include digital money sitting in short-term accounts and long-term accounts then you’re talking about roughly $10 trillion in “money” in the financial system.

In contrast, the money in the US stock market (equity shares in publicly traded companies) is over $20 trillion in size.

The US bond market (money that has been lent to corporations, municipal Governments, State Governments, and the Federal Government) is almost twice this at $38 trillion.

Total Credit Market Instruments (mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, junk bonds, commercial paper and other digitally-based “money” that is based on debt) is even larger $58.7 trillion.

Unregulated over the counter derivatives traded between the big banks and corporations is north of $220 trillion.