Month: November 2018

Too many investors are focusing on what the Fed is doing today. The REAL issue that matters is what the Fed did from 2008-2016.

When the Fed created a bubble in US government bonds, also called Treasuries, it was effectively creating a bubble in the risk-free rate of return for the ENTIRE financial system.

As a result of this, EVERY asset got bubbly. We’re talking about municipal debt, corporate debt, subprime mortgages and auto loans, commodities, and more.

This is why I coined the term “the Everything Bubble” in 2014. And it’s why those investors who are obsessed with stock prices today are going to get destroyed just like those who focused on stock prices (not housing) did in 2008.

Why?

The REAL problem, the one that is going to crash the markets, is occurring in the BOND/ debt space, NOT stocks.

The US Corporate bond market is larger, more leveraged, and lower quality than it has EVER been in history.

Today, over 34% of ALL corporate debt is high risk.. as in JUNK… as in there is a HIGH probability the corporation will default on it.

Put another way, over $1 out of every $3 in the corporate debt market is going to be defaulted/restructured during the next downturn.

By the way, that downturn is already here. The Junk Bond markets has taken out its bull market trendline AS WELL as support. There are many ways to look at this chart… NONE of them are bullish.

As if that were not bad enough, there is compelling evidence that a significant amount of the so-called High Quality corporate market (the investment grade part) is in fact… NOT high quality at all.

Consider that 50% of the Investment Grade (IG) bond market is rated BBB, the lowest possible credit rating within the IG space. And there is considerable evidence that much of this stuff is actually JUNK.

The Bond Market knows this too. The Investment Grade Bond market has taken out its multi-year trendline while forming a CLEAR Head and Shoulders topping pattern. Here again, there are many ways to look at this chart… NONE of them are bullish.

Again, what happens in stocks is almost irrelevant… when even the IMF expects 20% of corporates to default in the coming months, you’ve got the makings of another 2008… only this time in corporate debt, not mortgages.

As usual… stocks will be the last to “get it.”

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Too many investors are focusing on what the Fed is doing today. The REAL issue that matters is what the Fed did from 2008-2016.

When the Fed created a bubble in US government bonds, also called Treasuries, it was effectively creating a bubble in the risk-free rate of return for the ENTIRE financial system.

As a result of this, EVERY asset got bubbly. We’re talking about municipal debt, corporate debt, subprime mortgages and auto loans, commodities, and more.

This is why I coined the term “the Everything Bubble” in 2014. And it’s why those investors who are obsessed with stock prices today are going to get destroyed just like those who focused on stock prices (not housing) did in 2008.

Why?

The REAL problem, the one that is going to crash the markets, is occurring in the BOND/ debt space, NOT stocks.

The US Corporate bond market is larger, more leveraged, and lower quality than it has EVER been in history.

Today, over 34% of ALL corporate debt is high risk.. as in JUNK… as in there is a HIGH probability the corporation will default on it.

Put another way, over $1 out of every $3 in the corporate debt market is going to be defaulted/restructured during the next downturn.

By the way, that downturn is already here. The Junk Bond markets has taken out its bull market trendline AS WELL as support. There are many ways to look at this chart… NONE of them are bullish.

As if that were not bad enough, there is compelling evidence that a significant amount of the so-called High Quality corporate market (the investment grade part) is in fact… NOT high quality at all.

Consider that 50% of the Investment Grade (IG) bond market is rated BBB, the lowest possible credit rating within the IG space. And there is considerable evidence that much of this stuff is actually JUNK.

The Bond Market knows this too. The Investment Grade Bond market has taken out its multi-year trendline while forming a CLEAR Head and Shoulders topping pattern. Here again, there are many ways to look at this chart… NONE of them are bullish.

Again, what happens in stocks is almost irrelevant… when even the IMF expects 20% of corporates to default in the coming months, you’ve got the makings of another 2008… only this time in corporate debt, not mortgages.

As usual… stocks will be the last to “get it.”

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 on the Fed’s hawkishness. For 11 months straight Powell had maintained that the economy was booming and that the Fed would be hiking rates until the end of 2019.

Powell did this despite:

1)   The entire Emerging Market space blowing up with many emerging stock markets crashing over 30%.

2)   The clear evidence that Fed policy was destroying global growth with Copper and other economically sensitive bellwethers collapsing into bear markets.

3)   The clear evidence that corporate profit margins peaked in 2Q18 and the business cycle was turning down in the US.

None of the above mattered to the Powell Red. Time and again Chair Powell ignored these issues during press conferences, speeches, and during Q&A sessions. Which is why his sudden decision to change course is not a good thing… in fact it’s very VERY bad.

Why?

Because this signals that something truly horrific is brewing in the financial system.

Think of it this way, if you’re willing to stomach most of the stock markets in the world entering bear markets… and economic bellwethers CRASHING… just how awful does something have to be for you to stop on a dime and hit the “panic” button?

Think CRISIS bad.

If you don’t believe me, consider that the $USD barely dipped on Powell’s announcement yesterday. Heck, the greenback didn’t even drop 1%. The BIG drop the media ranted about is that tiny red square in the chart below.

If the Fed’s decision to drop its hawkishness was a good thing, the $USD would have collapsed 1.5% or more. The fact it barely even fell 0.5% tell us that the financial system realizes something BAD is afoot.

As if this wasn’t enough, Treasury yields didn’t even budge yesterday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury finished the day flat.

If the Fed announcement yesterday was a great thing, yields should have erupted higher yesterday as a signal that growth and inflation/ reflation were igniting. They didn’t.

So we’ve got both the currency markets and the bond markets telling us that something bad is happening. Between this and the fact that Jerome Powell had to hit the “panic” button on the Fed’s monetary policy, I fully expect stocks to crash within the next 60 days.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 on the Fed’s hawkishness. For 11 months straight Powell had maintained that the economy was booming and that the Fed would be hiking rates until the end of 2019.

Powell did this despite:

1)   The entire Emerging Market space blowing up with many emerging stock markets crashing over 30%.

2)   The clear evidence that Fed policy was destroying global growth with Copper and other economically sensitive bellwethers collapsing into bear markets.

3)   The clear evidence that corporate profit margins peaked in 2Q18 and the business cycle was turning down in the US.

None of the above mattered to the Powell Red. Time and again Chair Powell ignored these issues during press conferences, speeches, and during Q&A sessions. Which is why his sudden decision to change course is not a good thing… in fact it’s very VERY bad.

Why?

Because this signals that something truly horrific is brewing in the financial system.

Think of it this way, if you’re willing to stomach most of the stock markets in the world entering bear markets… and economic bellwethers CRASHING… just how awful does something have to be for you to stop on a dime and hit the “panic” button?

Think CRISIS bad.

If you don’t believe me, consider that the $USD barely dipped on Powell’s announcement yesterday. Heck, the greenback didn’t even drop 1%. The BIG drop the media ranted about is that tiny red square in the chart below.

If the Fed’s decision to drop its hawkishness was a good thing, the $USD would have collapsed 1.5% or more. The fact it barely even fell 0.5% tell us that the financial system realizes something BAD is afoot.

As if this wasn’t enough, Treasury yields didn’t even budge yesterday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury finished the day flat.

If the Fed announcement yesterday was a great thing, yields should have erupted higher yesterday as a signal that growth and inflation/ reflation were igniting. They didn’t.

So we’ve got both the currency markets and the bond markets telling us that something bad is happening. Between this and the fact that Jerome Powell had to hit the “panic” button on the Fed’s monetary policy, I fully expect stocks to crash within the next 60 days.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 on the Fed’s hawkishness. For 11 months straight Powell had maintained that the economy was booming and that the Fed would be hiking rates until the end of 2019.

Powell did this despite:

1)   The entire Emerging Market space blowing up with many emerging stock markets crashing over 30%.

2)   The clear evidence that Fed policy was destroying global growth with Copper and other economically sensitive bellwethers collapsing into bear markets.

3)   The clear evidence that corporate profit margins peaked in 2Q18 and the business cycle was turning down in the US.

None of the above mattered to the Powell Red. Time and again Chair Powell ignored these issues during press conferences, speeches, and during Q&A sessions. Which is why his sudden decision to change course is not a good thing… in fact it’s very VERY bad.

Why?

Because this signals that something truly horrific is brewing in the financial system.

Think of it this way, if you’re willing to stomach most of the stock markets in the world entering bear markets… and economic bellwethers CRASHING… just how awful does something have to be for you to stop on a dime and hit the “panic” button?

Think CRISIS bad.

If you don’t believe me, consider that the $USD barely dipped on Powell’s announcement yesterday. Heck, the greenback didn’t even drop 1%. The BIG drop the media ranted about is that tiny red square in the chart below.

If the Fed’s decision to drop its hawkishness was a good thing, the $USD would have collapsed 1.5% or more. The fact it barely even fell 0.5% tell us that the financial system realizes something BAD is afoot.

As if this wasn’t enough, Treasury yields didn’t even budge yesterday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury finished the day flat.

If the Fed announcement yesterday was a great thing, yields should have erupted higher yesterday as a signal that growth and inflation/ reflation were igniting. They didn’t.

So we’ve got both the currency markets and the bond markets telling us that something bad is happening. Between this and the fact that Jerome Powell had to hit the “panic” button on the Fed’s monetary policy, I fully expect stocks to crash within the next 60 days.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a complete 180 on the Fed’s hawkishness. For 11 months straight Powell had maintained that the economy was booming and that the Fed would be hiking rates until the end of 2019.

Powell did this despite:

1)   The entire Emerging Market space blowing up with many emerging stock markets crashing over 30%.

2)   The clear evidence that Fed policy was destroying global growth with Copper and other economically sensitive bellwethers collapsing into bear markets.

3)   The clear evidence that corporate profit margins peaked in 2Q18 and the business cycle was turning down in the US.

None of the above mattered to the Powell Red. Time and again Chair Powell ignored these issues during press conferences, speeches, and during Q&A sessions. Which is why his sudden decision to change course is not a good thing… in fact it’s very VERY bad.

Why?

Because this signals that something truly horrific is brewing in the financial system.

Think of it this way, if you’re willing to stomach most of the stock markets in the world entering bear markets… and economic bellwethers CRASHING… just how awful does something have to be for you to stop on a dime and hit the “panic” button?

Think CRISIS bad.

If you don’t believe me, consider that the $USD barely dipped on Powell’s announcement yesterday. Heck, the greenback didn’t even drop 1%. The BIG drop the media ranted about is that tiny red square in the chart below.

If the Fed’s decision to drop its hawkishness was a good thing, the $USD would have collapsed 1.5% or more. The fact it barely even fell 0.5% tell us that the financial system realizes something BAD is afoot.

As if this wasn’t enough, Treasury yields didn’t even budge yesterday. The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury finished the day flat.

If the Fed announcement yesterday was a great thing, yields should have erupted higher yesterday as a signal that growth and inflation/ reflation were igniting. They didn’t.

So we’ve got both the currency markets and the bond markets telling us that something bad is happening. Between this and the fact that Jerome Powell had to hit the “panic” button on the Fed’s monetary policy, I fully expect stocks to crash within the next 60 days.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

If you think I’m being overly negative, take a look at the currency markets.

The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Collectively they trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY. As such, these markets are the first to note macro shifts.

With that in mind, the $USD has erased the initial drop that occurred when President Trump first started talking about a trade deal. The $USD is now re-challenging the recent highs.

Put another way, the currency markets are “buying” the notion of a trade deal one bit.

Let me ask you, who’s got a better grip on what’s happening in the world… the mainstream media or the currency markets?

Better yet, which would you rather base an investment decision on… the largest, most liquid markets in the world… or the mainstream media?

Also… if stocks really believed a trade deal was coming… wouldn’t they have at least reclaimed their 200-DMA?

The next leg down hits soon. And when it does, we’re going to new lows.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

If you think I’m being overly negative, take a look at the currency markets.

The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Collectively they trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY. As such, these markets are the first to note macro shifts.

With that in mind, the $USD has erased the initial drop that occurred when President Trump first started talking about a trade deal. The $USD is now re-challenging the recent highs.

Put another way, the currency markets are “buying” the notion of a trade deal one bit.

Let me ask you, who’s got a better grip on what’s happening in the world… the mainstream media or the currency markets?

Better yet, which would you rather base an investment decision on… the largest, most liquid markets in the world… or the mainstream media?

Also… if stocks really believed a trade deal was coming… wouldn’t they have at least reclaimed their 200-DMA?

The next leg down hits soon. And when it does, we’re going to new lows.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

If you think I’m being overly negative, take a look at the currency markets.

The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Collectively they trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY. As such, these markets are the first to note macro shifts.

With that in mind, the $USD has erased the initial drop that occurred when President Trump first started talking about a trade deal. The $USD is now re-challenging the recent highs.

Put another way, the currency markets are “buying” the notion of a trade deal one bit.

Let me ask you, who’s got a better grip on what’s happening in the world… the mainstream media or the currency markets?

Better yet, which would you rather base an investment decision on… the largest, most liquid markets in the world… or the mainstream media?

Also… if stocks really believed a trade deal was coming… wouldn’t they have at least reclaimed their 200-DMA?

The next leg down hits soon. And when it does, we’re going to new lows.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

If you think I’m being overly negative, take a look at the currency markets.

The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Collectively they trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY. As such, these markets are the first to note macro shifts.

With that in mind, the $USD has erased the initial drop that occurred when President Trump first started talking about a trade deal. The $USD is now re-challenging the recent highs.

Put another way, the currency markets are “buying” the notion of a trade deal one bit.

Let me ask you, who’s got a better grip on what’s happening in the world… the mainstream media or the currency markets?

Better yet, which would you rather base an investment decision on… the largest, most liquid markets in the world… or the mainstream media?

Also… if stocks really believed a trade deal was coming… wouldn’t they have at least reclaimed their 200-DMA?

The next leg down hits soon. And when it does, we’re going to new lows.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stock markets are rallying today on the belief that somehow the US and China will sign a trade deal at the upcoming G-20 meeting.

Investors are buying this narrative despite the facts that…

1)   The Trump administration has already admitted that a deal is highly UN-likely.

2)   The Trump administration has also admitted that the next round of tariffs (25%) will hit in January (meaning no deal by then).

3)   The US and China have yet to reach ANY kind of remote agreement on anything. Indeed, they don’t even appear to be openly negotiating at the moment.

4)   Large-scale trade deals that resolve decades-old structural issues between the two largest economies in the world do NOT get resolved by a 1-on-1 face to face meeting that lasts a few hours.

If you think I’m being overly negative, take a look at the currency markets.

The currency markets are the largest, most liquid markets in the world. Collectively they trade $5-$6 trillion PER DAY. As such, these markets are the first to note macro shifts.

With that in mind, the $USD has erased the initial drop that occurred when President Trump first started talking about a trade deal. The $USD is now re-challenging the recent highs.

Put another way, the currency markets are “buying” the notion of a trade deal one bit.

Let me ask you, who’s got a better grip on what’s happening in the world… the mainstream media or the currency markets?

Better yet, which would you rather base an investment decision on… the largest, most liquid markets in the world… or the mainstream media?

Also… if stocks really believed a trade deal was coming… wouldn’t they have at least reclaimed their 200-DMA?

The next leg down hits soon. And when it does, we’re going to new lows.

If you are not already preparing for this, NOW is the time to do so.

On that note we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public. We extended the deadline based on yesterday’s sucker rally, but this it IT… no more extensions.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research