By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist
Two days ago, I wrote an article titled “Are the Markets Signaling a Peace Dividend?”
Fast forward to today, and something of a cease fire is in place, though both Israel and Iran are finding it difficult to bring things to a complete halt.
As a strategist, sometimes you just get lucky with the timing of particular article. But the reason I was correct with this call was because I was able to accurately read what the markets were telling me.
Let me explain…
Ever since the strikes between Israel and Iran began in earnest on June 12th 2025, I’ve noted repeatedly that the markets were signaling that this conflict would A) not last long and B) have minimal impact on the global economy/ financial markets.
I am in no way psychic. And I certainly wasn’t making light of the situation as war is horrible. But the financial markets signaled time and again that this conflict wasn’t going to lead to World War III.
For one thing, stocks never really broke down. Sure, you can argue that “manipulation” or some other force intervened to stop stocks from collapsing, but as we learned during the Trade War in April, when sellers show up in droves, there isn’t much anyone can do (unless the Fed formally launches a major QE program).
In this context, the fact that the stock market barely dipped throughout this conflict between Iran and Israel was a strong sign that this situation was going to be resolved relatively quickly.
Indeed, looking at the price action, you can see that stocks were simply in a period of consolidation… which honestly is a perfectly normal development after a rally like the one stocks have staged since the April 9th lows.
Another “tell” concerning this conflict was the fact that oil never really exploded higher beyond the initial attack. Compare what oil did in the last two weeks (purple oval in the chart below) to what it did when Russia invaded Ukraine (blue oval in the chart below) and you’ll see what I mean. During this recent conflict between Israel and Iran, oil didn’t even clear $75 a barrel for more than a few days! Oil knew that this conflict wasn’t going to escalate into something regional or global in nature.
So again, the markets “knew” that this situation would resolve relatively quickly and that peace would prevail. The doom and gloom crowd who talked about World War III were simply not reading the markets correctly. There were numerous signs that wasn’t going to happen.
This just confirms how important it is to have someone with the right framework and understanding of the markets guiding your investments. If you’d like to receive my daily market commentary delivered to your inbox every day before the market’s open, please use the link below. I’d be delighted to help your navigate volatility and profit from the dominant trends!
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How to Profit From Inflation: THREE Investments that will outperform in 2025
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Best Regards,
Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
