The Markets

26
Jul
2024

Is THE Top in For Stocks?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Editors note: Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA will be on the Schilling Show radio program today at 1:30 EST. You can listen in here.

Everywhere I look, I see investors proclaiming that “THE” top is in and a bear market is about to unfold.

First and foremost, there is NO reason to ever try to call a top.

Why?

Because doing so doesn’t make you any money. In fact, top callers usually miss out on major market gains by selling way too early.

Consider what happened during the last market correction in April 2024. Then, just as now, the top callers came out of the woodwork. The market corrected for two weeks before rallying another 15%. Anyone who sold, missed out on these gains.

Moreover, there are nearly ZERO signs from real market indicators that THE top is in right now.

Consider the last major bear market that unfolded from early 2022 until October 2023. At that time, high yield credit broke down along with stocks, signaling that a major shift had taken place in the financial system.

Today, high yield credit is near all-time highs. If anything, it is signaling that stocks have sold off TOO MUCH!

The same is true for market breadth. Going into the bear market of 2022, breadth peaked before stocks.

Today, breadth is near all-time highs. It too is signaling that the selling is overdone for stocks.

Finally, and likely most importantly, the U.S. is four months away from the next Presidential election. And the next President of the United States, Donald Trump, is obsessed with the stock market.

Do you REALLY want to be shorting stocks when the single biggest cheerleader in the history of the stock market is going to take office? 

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, Trump 2nd Term
13
Jun
2024

You Can Use This Tool to Save Your Portfolio From a Crash

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Is the stock market about to crash?

Everywhere I look on social media, the defining narrative is that the stock market is in a massive bubble that is about to burst, triggering a devastating crash.

The dirty little secret about the people pushing these narratives is that they have never actually called a crash. Instead, they’ve been bearish for years and years, and like a broken clock, they’ve been right once or twice. And I can guarantee you they didn’t make ANY MONEY from a market crash when it DID happen.

Let’s start with the basics here.

Crashes, DO happen, but they are RARE. There have been THREE in the last 35 years: 

1) 2000-2003

2) 2007-2009

3) February-April 2020

Bear in mind, I’m talking about REAL crashes here or full-scale crises, not garden variety corrections of 10%.  I’ve illustrated the crashes of note in the chart below.

Again, there were just THREE major financial catastrophes in a 35 year period, or roughly one every 10 years or so. That’s quite rare. Name another “1 in 10 years” event that people obsess about to this degree. I can’t. People get worked up about buying new homes or changing careers, both of which are “1 in 10 years”-type events… but I don’t see entire Youtube Channels and social media accounts that talk non-stop about those events the same way I see people obsessing about market crashes.

Again, when we talk about crashes, we’re talking about “1 in 10 years” events!

Even if we were to include EVERY time the market dropped more than 10% in rapid fashion, the number of “events” in the stock market is less than 10. Even if I missed a few here, you’re still talking about a “1 in 3 years” event. 

Meanwhile, throughout this 35 year period, in spite of these crashes/ events, stocks rose nearly 2,000%. Anyone who obsessed about crashes to the point of avoiding stocks completely, or even worse, betting on a collapse non-stop, missed one of the greatest periods of wealth generation in human history.

So why not simply buy stocks non-stop and hold for the long-term?

Because when crashes DO happen,  stocks can take YEARS before they hit new highs. 

Consider the period from 1996-2013. There were several MAJOR bull markets that saw stocks generate huge returns. Unfortunately, the subsequent bear markets/ crashes ERASED most if not all of those gains. As a result of this, stocks didn’t make a cent for 17 years!

Thus, investors are in a quandary.

One the one hand, crashes are rare events. And obsessing over them can lead to missing out on creating generational wealth from your investments.

However, on the other hand, when crashes DO happen, they can lead to 10+ years of ZERO returns for long-term, buy and hold investors. What are the odds that a REAL person would be willing to sit through a period like that and not despair?

Likely ZERO.

So obviously, investors need a tool of avoiding crashes, while riding bull markets for as long as possible.

I’ve developed PRECISELY such a tool. I detail it, along with what it’s currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Markets
10
Jun
2024

Our Next Prediction For Stocks Is…

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The stock market is setting up to offer a buying opportunity in the next week or two.

The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week. Every dip was bought as the markets finished the week in a solid “risk on” framework.

However, beneath the surface, several market leading indicators show a dip is coming…

High yield credit, which has led every turn for stocks in the last four months, has rolled over. As I write this Monday morning, it suggests the S&P 500 will fall to 5,300 in the near future. This is just a “dip” and we see it as a buying opportunity.

Breadth, another market leading indicator, is saying the same thing direction-wise. But it suggests the dip will be slightly deeper with the S&P 500 dropped to the 5,200s . The fact both breadth and high yield credit are saying the same thing, adds weight to the forecast for a risk off move.

Will this risk off move open the door to something worse? Could stocks crash some time in the near future?

To answer those questions, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Markets
20
May
2024
This is How Successful Investors Think About Stocks (And You Can Too).

This is How Successful Investors Think About Stocks (And You Can Too).

By Graham Summers, MBA

Stocks hit new all time highs last week.

The reasoning here is quite simple: the economy is growing and the Fed has signaled it will start easing rates soon.

This is something of a goldilocks scenario. After all, what is a better environment for stocks than a growing economy (which means rising earnings) and lower rates (which mean investors paying a higher multiple for stocks’ higher rates of growth).

But what about the conflict in the Middle East, stocks being overvalued, inflation potentially turning back up, AI being in a bubble, and the dozens of other potential issues the market faces today?

There are ALWAYS problems in the world. And there are ALWAYS a multitude of things that can go wrong with the economy or the stock market. But until any one of those things becomes a big enough problem for the stock market to react… they remain hypotheticals.

I realize that sounds ludicrous, but think about your own health. The human body is comprised of ~36 trillion cells, 206 bones, 78 organs, and 11 organ systems.

The potential for something to go wrong is so large it’s incomprehensible. And yet, most days, we get up and function just fine. But if we sat down and chose to focus on the potential of something going wrong… we could easily convince ourselves that we were on the verge of a serious illness or worse.

The stock market is similar. There’s tremendous potential for something to go wrong… but we’re talking about potential not reality. Many of the potential issues never even materialize or if they do, they prove to be overblown as far as stocks are concerned.

This is why sophisticated investors don’t fret and panic about stocks every day. I’m not saying they don’t employ careful risk management protocols… but until a problem actually appears and becomes significant enough to impact stocks… they focus on MAKING MONEY, not worrying.

The end result is that while everyone else frets and worries, these people are growing their portfolios. The good news is that with the right guidance, you could EASILY do the same.

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Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
11
Apr
2024

The Second Wave of Inflation Has Arrived

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I warned time and again that the Fed was making a massive policy mistake that would unleash another round of inflation.

By quick way of review, the Fed stopped raising interest rates in July 2023. It then started talking about cutting interest rates in November. This was a MASSIVE mistake as inflation has NOT been defeated.

Indeed, ever since the Fed started talking about cutting rates, the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has bottomed and is now turning back up.

This trend continues. Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that CPI rose 0.4% Month-over-Month (MoM) and 3.5% Year-over-Year (YoY) in March 2024.

 This represents the FOURTH straight month of CPI coming in hotter than expected. The fact it surprised Wall Street and most investment strategists confirms that NONE of these people are paying attention to the data.

The only part of the inflation data that is down is energy prices (and used cars which receives almost no weight). Every other segment of the CPI continues to rise.

See for yourself:

However, even Energy prices will begin turning up again… as are commodities in general. Both gasoline prices and copper prices are on the rise and about to break out of multi-year consolidation periods.

This is going to catch most investors offsides… but the good news is that with the right investments, you could see EXTRAORDINARY returns from what’s coming.

On that note, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from this rampant government spending. Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

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Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, Recession Watch, The Markets
10
Oct
2023

Three Questions to Ask Any Guru Opining on the Situation in the Middle East

By Graham Summers, MBA

War has broken out in the Middle East.

As usual, everyone is attempting to have an “expert” take on this situation. The reality is that less than one in 10,000 of the people speaking on this stuff have any idea what they are talking about. And unfortunately this goes for the actual experts with degrees and pedigree.

Before listening to anyone opining on this conflict, ask yourself the following three questions:

1) Does this person know what kind of government the country or countries involved has? (parliament, congress, neither, theocracy, etc).

2) Could this person find the countries in question on a map?

3) Can this person name the leaders of the countries in question?

If the answer to all three of these isn’t YES, then ignore anything else this person has to say. If they’re too lazy to even spend five minutes learning the basics, then they’re just another fake guru trying to act like they’re omniscient. 

With that in mind, I’m staying in my lane and focusing on the markets today. I’m doing this not because I don’t care about the people under attack, nor is it because I’m insensitive to the situation… I’m doing this because I’m not an expert on the middle east and have nothing to add in the way of quality insights.

What I did note however was the stock market bounced hard from the initial sell-off yesterday and closed out the day at the highs. This is quite bullish given that the geopolitical situation. 

From a purely technical analysis situation, stocks bounced HARD off the 200-day moving average, or DMA, as represented by the green line in the chart below. The door is now open to a run to the 50-DMA as represented by the red line in the chart below. 

The key however is what happens to bonds. 

The bond market was closed yesterday. So we need to assess how bonds act today now that they’re trading again. If yields break to new highs, then something BAD is coming for the stock market in the next few weeks.

Again, everything hinges on what bonds do. Bonds are the reason stocks rallied from 2020 to 2022. They’re the reason stocks crumbled from March 2022 to October 2022. So whatever happens in bonds will dictate what’s coming for stocks.

The key however is what happens to bonds. 

The bond market was closed yesterday. So we need to assess how bonds act today now that they’re trading again. If yields break to new highs, then something BAD is coming for the stock market in the next few weeks.

Again, everything hinges on what bonds do. Bonds are the reason stocks rallied from 2020 to 2022. They’re the reason stocks crumbled from March 2022 to October 2022. So whatever happens in bonds will dictate what’s coming for stocks.

For more market insights and analysis, join our free daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital. You’ll immediately start receiving our Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA’s briefings to your inbox every morning before the market’s open.

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
06
Jun
2023

Two Charts That Can Help You See What’s to Come For the Markets

By Graham Summers, MBA

The market rally in 2023 has been driven by tech, specifically, Big Tech (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, etc.).

While a handful of large companies have driven the stock market gains, the vast majority of stocks are down. Take out the big tech players, and the S&P 500 would have lost money thus far in 2023, as opposed to rising 8%.

Many gurus are suggesting this divergence will resolve with a collapse for the stock market. But that’s not necessarily true. Yes, the big tech players could correct which would be negative for the overall market. But we could also see some of the lagging sectors and companies play “catch up.”

If that happens, then the market will hold up and possibly even rise to new highs.

So how do we assess this?

Personally, I’m watching two sectors: Healthcare (XLV) and Industrials (XLI).

Both of these sectors have been lagging big tech, but they’re consolidating or moving sideways as opposed to falling in value. So if they begin to rally, it will dramatically improve market breadth.

Healthcare (XLV) is the second heaviest weighted sector in the market with a weight of 13%. It’s been in a consolidation pattern since mid-2021. Which ever direction this sector finally breaks out will have a significant impact on the overall market.

Industrials (XLI) have a weight of 8% in the S&P 500. This sector, like healthcare, has been in a consolidation pattern for most of the last two years. A breakout to the upside would boost the market and improve the breadth of this rally significantly.

In the simplest of terms, if these sectors begin to participate, then this market rally will have legs and continue longer than most expect.

For more investment insights as well as several special reports outlining how to profit during a bear market, periods of high inflation, and more, swing by:

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
18
Nov
2020

Technical Setup: A Correction is Coming

Let’s set politics aside today and focus on the stock market.

From a technical analysis perspective, the market has become extremely overstretched and is due for a correction.

The S&P 500 is trading above its monthly Bollinger Bands to the upside (red circle in the chart below). This means the stock market is now three standard deviations above their average historic price.

Any time stocks have performed a similar move in the last three years, it’s been quickly followed by a sharp decline, usually to the tune of 200+ points on the S&P 500.

You can see this for yourself in the chart below. I’ve circled the last similar three occasions in which the S&P 500 was three standard deviations above its average historic price.

In simple terms, stocks are EXTREMELY overstretched and due for a breather. I’ve identified the lines of support at which I would expect stocks to be a “buy” in the coming days. Save your capital for now, and prepare to buy around those levels.

If you’re looking for this kind of precise guidance on how to invest in the markets… where the biggest opportunities are… and how to find unique picks with EXPLOSIVE potential,  I strongly urge you to join our FREE e-letter, Gains Pains & Capital.

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Best

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
10
Jun
2020

Something BAD is About to Happen, and 99% of Investors Will Get Hurt By It

Things are beginning to get out of control in currency land.

The $USD is collapsing. Astute chart readers will note that the $USD has already experienced two sharp drops in the last few months (blue rectangles in the chart below). They occurred in late February before the COVID-19 shutdown and late March after the COVID-19 market meltdown subsided.

So why is this current drop (green rectangle in the chart above) so important? 

Because this collapse is happening outside of a crisis.

The other two sharp drops were triggered by true Black Swan events (an economic shutdown and viral pandemic). This one is happening while things are actually returning to normal.

Put another way, the $USD is telling us that:

1)    Either another Black Swan event is underway already.

2)    The world is losing faith in the $USD based on the Fed’s’/ Federal Government’s money printing and stimulus.

For a better perspective on what I am talking about take a look at the next chart. The $USD is breaking its bull market trendline at a rapid clip. The only other time it did this was right before the COVID-19 black swan event.

Something BAD is brewing in the financial system. And it’s going to catch 99% of investors by surprise.

If you’re sick of narratives and want to focus on how to actually make money from the markets, join our FREE e-letter Gains Pains & Capital.

https://gainspainscapital.com/

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
09
Apr
2020

Is the Great Crisis of 2020 Over… and How to We Prepare For a Potential Second Round?

The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.

The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.

Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.

The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.

The Fed announced it would:

  • Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
  • Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
    • Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
    • Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
    • Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
  • Expand its commercial paper QE program.
  • Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
  • Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
  • Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).

Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.

We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.

Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.

However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:

What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?

Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.

Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.

Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.

And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.

With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
09
Apr
2020

This is the Blueprint For What’s to Come (And How to Play It)

The financial system today is trying to figure out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.

The Unstoppable Force= the Everything Bubble bursting as debt markets collapse around.

The Immovable Object= the Federal Reserve and its decision to buy EVERYTHING to stop the panic.

Regarding #1, in March we saw numerous debt bubbles burst including high yield corporate debt, investment grade corporate debt, high yield muni debt, and even investment grade muni debt.

The Fed, in an effort to stop this, announced several weeks ago that it would be buying everything. And I do mean EVERYTHING.

The Fed announced it would:

  • Make its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” Meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
  • Increase the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include:Expand its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
    • Corporate debt (debt issued by corporations).
    • Corporate debt-related ETFs (stock funds linked to corporate debt).
    • Municipal debt (debt issued by states, counties, and cities).
  • Expand its commercial paper QE program.
  • Introduce a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
  • Soon begin a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
  • Lower the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).

Not the Fed was buying everything including CDs, student loans, muni bonds, corporate bonds, etc. As a friend of mine joked, the only thing the Fed wasn’t buying was NFL contracts.

We are now in the process of watching to see if the Fed has succeeded or not. That is… has the Fed’s move to backstop the entire financial system been enough to stop the panic.

Thus far the answer is a resounding yes. Risk assets are up across the board and stocks are moving to retrace 50% of the initial drop in March.

However, the bigger issue… and it’s the one that may lead to a second round of the crisis is:

What is the actual economic damage caused by the Covid-19 panic and subsequent economic shutdown?

Throwing trillions of dollars at the financial system doesn’t mean that consumer spending is going to come back in a major way.

Cutting interest rates and buying asset backed securities doesn’t make people want to go to restaurants, or go out shopping, or attend sporting events.

Put another way, if the consumer doesn’t come back in a BIG way relatively quickly, then we will indeed find ourselves in a significant prolonged recession.

And that would trigger another round of the financial crisis.

With that in mind, if you’re concerned about how your portfolio might handle a crash,

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best RegardsParagraph

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
02
Apr
2020
This is the Single Most Important Chart in the World Right Now

This is the Single Most Important Chart in the World Right Now

The single most important chart in the world right now is investment grade credit spreads.

The Fed has announced it will buy investment grade corporate debt for the first time in history. The Fed also announced that it will be directly buying investment grade corporate debt ETFs like $LQD.

With that in mind, credit spreads on investment grade corporate debt have become “the canary in the coal mine” for this Fed intervention. If they collapse in a significant way despite the Fed buying them, then we know the Fed has failed to prop up the system.

You can see this in the below chart. Credit spreads for investment grade corporate debt actually bottomed on Thursday March 19th. Stocks didn’t bottom until Monday of the following week.

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Again, credit is leading stocks here. So if you want to get an idea of where the markets are heading you NEED to watch credit. 

With that in mind, yesterday’s breakdown was extremely dangerous for the credit markets. As you can see in the chart below, the drop brought credit right to THE line of CRITICAL support.

If we see a breakdown from here, then it’s HIGHLY likely the system will go back into a panic and we will see new lows for stocks.

On that note, if you’re worried about weathering a potential market crash, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
25
Mar
2020

Yesterday’s action was positive, but we’re not out of the woods by any stretch.

Stocks roared higher with the Dow closing up 11% for its largest single day gain since 1933. Across the board, the buying was extremely strong with 90% of trading volume being up by end of the day.

However, we are not out of the woods yet.

As Bill King recently noted, throughout history there are two only two other instances in which stocks crashed this rapidly. Those are the crash of 1929 and the crash of 1987.

Both of them featured a swift double-digit decline of over 20% in a matter of days.

Both of them featured a MASSIVE two-day rally that saw stocks rise 20%.

Both of them then saw stocks roll over to either retest the lows (1987) or fall to new lows (1929).

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The crash of 1929 saw stocks lose 34% in the span of a few days before staging a massive two-day rally of 18%. Stocks then dropped to new lows.

The crash of 1987 saw stocks fall 22% in a single day. They then staged a massive two-day rally of nearly 20% before falling to retest the lows.

The point is that yesterday’s massive bounce doesn’t mean the lows are in. We are still in watch and wait mode for the markets.

On that note, high yield credit spreads have broken out of their downtrend. However, they have MAJOR resistance right overhead. That HAS to be broken for this rally to have any legs.

Investment grade credit spreads, which have lead credit during this bounce courtesy of the Fed announcing it will start buying investment grade corporate debt, have already slammed into resistance and rolled over.

My point with all of this is to NOT rush into stock right now. Do not worry about trying to catch a bottom or timing the exact low on the markets. You’re much better off waiting for clear signals that the market has DEFINITIVELY bottomed and THEN start buying.

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Startegist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
24
Mar
2020

The Markets Suggest That The First Round of This Crisis is Ending… What’s Next?

Disclaimer: I am not a scientist nor am I a healthcare official. I am not downplaying the Covid-19 situation; I am simply looking at what the markets are saying about the Covid-19 pandemic.

A very strange thing has started happening in the markets.

While the news continues to tell us that there is a global pandemic and that soon millions of people will be dead… the stock markets have begun bottoming.

The stock market in Italy, which is supposed to be completely imploding from Covid-19, bottomed on March 16th. It failed to make a new low and has yet to roll over again.

Germany, which is now experiencing its own Covid-19 issues, looks like it bottomed on October 18th. It is still touch and go here, but we have yet to see new lows.

Here in the U.S., multiple economic bellwethers are showing us something similar. 

Caterpillar is the largest producer of large machinery in the world. If the world was entering a depression, and things were worsening, CAT’s stock actually bottomed on March 12th and is now putting in a higher low.

Similarly Freeport McMoran (FCX) is the largest copper producer in the U.S. Copper is a commodity that is closely linked to economic growth. And FCX’s share price looks like it bottomed last week on March 19th. Despite yesterday’s early morning bloodbath, FCX shares never broke to new lows.

Taken together, these charts are suggesting that the the market is in the process of bottoming. The one area of concern that has yet to give us the “all clear” is the credit markets.

High yield credit spreads DID put in a new low yesterday. They are now attempting to bounce. But unless credit bottoms, any rally in stocks will be short-lived.

Put another way, if that last chart begins to rally in a significant way, stocks could EXPLODE higher.

These charts are suggesting to us that the first round of the crisis, the deflationary collapse, will be ending sometime soon. But the second round, the INFLATIONARY storm triggered, by central banks printing trillions of dollars is just around the corner.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are 55 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
24
Mar
2020

Italy, Germany, Caterpillar and Freeport McMoran Are Bottoming… is the Bounce Finally Here?

Disclaimer: I am not a scientist nor am I a healthcare official. I am not downplaying the Covid-19 situation; I am simply looking at what the markets are saying about the Covid-19 pandemic.

A very strange thing has started happening in the markets.

While the news continues to tell us that there is a global pandemic and that soon millions of people will be dead… the stock markets have begun bottoming.

The stock market in Italy, which is supposed to be completely imploding from Covid-19, bottomed on March 16th. It failed to make a new low and has yet to roll over again.

Germany, which is now experiencing its own Covid-19 issues, looks like it bottomed on October 18th. It is still touch and go here, but we have yet to see new lows.

Here in the U.S., multiple economic bellwethers are showing us something similar. 

Caterpillar is the largest producer of large machinery in the world. If the world was entering a depression, and things were worsening, CAT’s stock actually bottomed on March 12th and is now putting in a higher low.

Similarly Freeport McMoran (FCX) is the largest copper producer in the U.S. Copper is a commodity that is closely linked to economic growth. And FCX’s share price looks like it bottomed last week on March 19th. Despite yesterday’s early morning bloodbath, FCX shares never broke to new lows.

Taken together, these charts are suggesting that the the market is in the process of bottoming. The one area of concern that has yet to give us the “all clear” is the credit markets.

High yield credit spreads DID put in a new low yesterday. They are now attempting to bounce. But unless credit bottoms, any rally in stocks will be short-lived.

Put another way, if that last chart begins to rally in a significant way, stocks could EXPLODE higher.

These charts are suggesting to us that the first round of the crisis, the deflationary collapse, will be ending sometime soon. But the second round, the INFLATIONARY storm triggered, by central banks printing trillions of dollars is just around the corner.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are 55 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
24
Mar
2020

Stocks Suggest a Bottom is Forming: Five Charts Every Investor Needs to See Today

Disclaimer: I am not a scientist nor am I a healthcare official. I am not downplaying the Covid-19 situation; I am simply looking at what the markets are saying about the Covid-19 pandemic.

A very strange thing has started happening in the markets.

While the news continues to tell us that there is a global pandemic and that soon millions of people will be dead… the stock markets have begun bottoming.

The stock market in Italy, which is supposed to be completely imploding from Covid-19, bottomed on March 16th. It failed to make a new low and has yet to roll over again.

Germany, which is now experiencing its own Covid-19 issues, looks like it bottomed on October 18th. It is still touch and go here, but we have yet to see new lows.

Here in the U.S., multiple economic bellwethers are showing us something similar. 

Caterpillar is the largest producer of large machinery in the world. If the world was entering a depression, and things were worsening, CAT’s stock actually bottomed on March 12th and is now putting in a higher low.

Similarly Freeport McMoran (FCX) is the largest copper producer in the U.S. Copper is a commodity that is closely linked to economic growth. And FCX’s share price looks like it bottomed last week on March 19th. Despite yesterday’s early morning bloodbath, FCX shares never broke to new lows.

Taken together, these charts are suggesting that the the market is in the process of bottoming. The one area of concern that has yet to give us the “all clear” is the credit markets.

High yield credit spreads DID put in a new low yesterday. They are now attempting to bounce. But unless credit bottoms, any rally in stocks will be short-lived.

Put another way, if that last chart begins to rally in a significant way, stocks could EXPLODE higher.

These charts are suggesting to us that the first round of the crisis, the deflationary collapse, will be ending sometime soon. But the second round, the INFLATIONARY storm triggered, by central banks printing trillions of dollars is just around the corner.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are 55 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
23
Dec
2019

Forget everything the mainstream media and economists are telling you about a recession… the U.S. economy is ROARING.

To see this, however, you need to look outside the official data, which is so heavily gimmicked that it borders on fiction.

Instead, take a look at corporate sales.

While there are literally dozens of ways through which companies can boost their earnings, sales are all but impossible to fake. Either money came in the door or not. As such they’re a great read on the economy, particularly the power of the U.S. consumer which makes up 70% of GDP.

With that in mind, consider that the average Year over Year sales growth for a basket of economically sensitive companies shows growth is near 5%…not 2% or 3%… 5%.

Interestingly, the slowest was in Wal-Mart, while the highest sales growth was in consumer discretionary items like Amazon and Coke. Typically, we see sales growth rise dramatically at Wal-Mart when the economy slows as more and more consumers become price sensitive.

———————————————————– 

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With that in mind, the above table suggests, that despite all the negative claims by the media, the American consumer is going strong: he and she are shopping for higher priced, discretionary items.

Now take a look at this table comparing Quarter over Quarter sales growth for the last three quarters for those same companies.

Looking at this, it appears the U.S. economy did indeed slow in the first half of 2019 but is now rapidly rebounding. Quarter over Quarter we are seeing growth above 3%.

Who are you going to believe… an economist with a spreadsheet and a bunch of fake formulas… or real companies that generate real sales based on consumer buying things?

So once again, the Trump administration has succeeded in generating higher economic growth. And by the look of things with corporate sales today, we’re about to experience another economic boom, NOT a bust… which suggests President Trump winning a second term in a landslide.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as President Trump secures a second term in a landslide win.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 27 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, WHITE Swan
23
Dec
2019

Forget everything the mainstream media and economists are telling you about a recession… the U.S. economy is ROARING.

To see this, however, you need to look outside the official data, which is so heavily gimmicked that it borders on fiction.

Instead, take a look at corporate sales.

While there are literally dozens of ways through which companies can boost their earnings, sales are all but impossible to fake. Either money came in the door or not. As such they’re a great read on the economy, particularly the power of the U.S. consumer which makes up 70% of GDP.

With that in mind, consider that the average Year over Year sales growth for a basket of economically sensitive companies shows growth is near 5%…not 2% or 3%… 5%.

Interestingly, the slowest was in Wal-Mart, while the highest sales growth was in consumer discretionary items like Amazon and Coke. Typically, we see sales growth rise dramatically at Wal-Mart when the economy slows as more and more consumers become price sensitive.

———————————————————– 

Get a LIFETIME Subscription to All Of Our Products For Just $2,500

An annual subscription to all of our current newsletters costs $1,500.

But today, you can get a LIFETIME subscription to ALL of them, along with every new product we ever launch, for just $2,500.

We have only ONE slot left for this offer.

To snatch it for yourself…

CLICK HERE NOW!!! 

———————————————————–

With that in mind, the above table suggests, that despite all the negative claims by the media, the American consumer is going strong: he and she are shopping for higher priced, discretionary items.

Now take a look at this table comparing Quarter over Quarter sales growth for the last three quarters for those same companies.

Looking at this, it appears the U.S. economy did indeed slow in the first half of 2019 but is now rapidly rebounding. Quarter over Quarter we are seeing growth above 3%.

Who are you going to believe… an economist with a spreadsheet and a bunch of fake formulas… or real companies that generate real sales based on consumer buying things?

So once again, the Trump administration has succeeded in generating higher economic growth. And by the look of things with corporate sales today, we’re about to experience another economic boom, NOT a bust… which suggests President Trump winning a second term in a landslide.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as President Trump secures a second term in a landslide win.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 27 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets
20
Dec
2019
President Trump Was Right About the Fed Killing Growth… and About the Coming Economic Boom

President Trump was about the Federal Reserve being too hawkish with monetary policy in 2018. And he’s correct now to suggest the Fed should be easing more aggressively.

To be clear, the Fed was correct to raise rates and attempt a balance sheet normalization, the pace of both operations was far too aggressive. As early as mid-2018 it was clear to me that the markets were signaling that Fed policies were killing growth.

Let me give you an example.

Due to its many industrial uses, copper is extremely sensitive to economic growth. When economic growth is accelerating, copper rises. When economic growth is slowing, copper falls.

With that in mind, note in the chart below that copper initially rose quite a lot during the first year of the Trump Presidency (green box =2017). This signaled higher economic growth to market watchers such as myself.

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However, once the Fed began its aggressive rate hike schedule along with its balance sheet normalization, copper entered a steep downtrend (red box=2018). As you can see, as early as June/ July 2018 it was clear the Fed was killing economic growth as copper entered a free-fall.

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How the Fed failed to see this is beyond me as this kind of collapse was playing out in multiple sectors all linked to growth (copper, steel, industrials, etc.). I repeatedly commented on this, but to no avail.

Perhaps, had the Fed slowed the pace of the rate hikes and balance sheet normalization, we would not have had to experience that horrible stock market sell-off in late 2018.

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Note also, it was only in early 2019 when the Fed reserved course with its policies and began talking about rate cuts and ending its balance sheet normalization that copper began to rally again. And as of late 2019, it has finally broken its downtrend (purple lines).

A close up of text on a black background Description automatically generated

This tells me that growth is coming once again. The markets, as you know, are forward looking.

So once again, President Trump was right concerning the Fed killing growth. And by the look of things with copper today, we’re about to experience another economic boom, NOT a bust… which suggests President Trump winning a second term in a landslide.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as President Trump secures a second term in a landslide win.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 39 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, WHITE Swan
19
Dec
2019

The market is telling us that the impeachment process will go nowhere.

Very early into his Presidency, Donald Trump branded the stock market’s returns as illustrating the success of his policies. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin even went so far as to state that the White House views the stock market as a “report card.”

This has proven correct. Throughout the Mueller investigation, whenever a story surfaced suggesting that President Trump was in trouble, the stock market would nose-dive at least for a day or two.

This trend continued during the initial phases of the Democrats’ impeachment process with stocks falling soon after the announcement of an impeachment investigation on 7/26/19 as well as the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry on 9/24/19.

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Note however, that with each sell-off, the market put in a higher low. Also note that since early October, the market has been going straight up almost straight up to new highs on a weekly basis.

Indeed, yesterday stocks hit a new all-time high on the very day the Democrats voted on impeachment!

———————————————————–

Get a LIFETIME Subscription to All Of Our Products For Just $2,500

An annual subscription to all of our current newsletters costs $1,500.

But today, you can get a LIFETIME subscription to ALL of them, along with every new product we ever launch, for just $2,500.

We have only 5 remaining slots available for this offer.

To snatch one of them for yourself…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————–

The market is discounting that the impeachment process will go nowhere. If anything, it’s guaranteeing that Joe Biden will be the Democrats’ nominee… which guarantees a landslide victory for President Trump in 2020.

Let me explain…

The impeachment process will now move to a Senate trial that will require all Senators to attend. This means both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren will have to be in D.C. and not on the campaign trail.

That leaves Joe Biden as a front-runner for the Democrat nominee. And Mr. Biden’s odds of success are so low that even President Barack Obama, the man who chose Joe Biden as his Vice President and who worked with Mr. Biden for eight years, has failed to publicly endorse him.

So again, the market is telling us that this impeachment process poses no threat to President Trump. If anything, the market is now beginning to discount a second term for the Trump Presidency.

Those who seek profit from this, need to invest in the sectors that will most benefit from a second Trump term.

Indeed, we’ve discovered a unique play on stocks… a single investment… that has already returned 1,300%. And we believe it’s poised to more than TRIPLE in the next 24 months as President Trump secures a second term in a landslide win.

To find out what it is… pick up a copy of our report…The Last Bull Market of Our Lifetimes

There are fewer than 50 copies left.

Click Here Now

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets