stock collapse?

Stocks are breaking down from their rising bearish wedge (red lines in the chart below) as I write this.

The key now is whether or not the market breaks support at 2,955 (blue line in the chart below).

In simple terms, if we hold the blue line, things are OK. If we don’t, it’s bad news we go to the purple line. If that doesn’t hold, then buckle up, the pink line is in play.

BE READY!

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The two biggest catalysts for the stock market rally are over.

Those catalysts were:

1)   The hope of a Fed rate cut.

2)   The hope of a Trade Deal between China and the US.

Regarding #1, the Fed June meeting resulted in no rate cuts. And last week’s jobs numbers greatly reduce the likelihood of a rate cut hitting in July.

Moreover, the Fed doesn’t meet in August. Which means the soonest the Fed would be able to cut rates would be September.

Regarding #2, the much-hyped meeting between Presidents Trump and Jinping at the G-20 meeting came and went. Despite all the hype and proclamations of success, a Trade Deal was not reached. In fact, it looks as though whatever points were agreed upon have already fallen apart.

This means… we are now in the window for a major market drop.

Stocks are completing their second bearish rising wedge formation of the year. The last one occurred right before the May drop. Given that this second wedge was both shorter and faster, the move will be even more violent.

Indeed, this is happening right as stocks slam into the overhead resistance on the megaphone pattern (blue lines) that stocks have formed over the last three years.

Stocks should now drop to 2,900. But if they can’t hold that level, the door opens to something TRULY nasty.

BE READY!

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sometimes it’s good to take a big picture look at the stock market.

By “big picture” I mean a monthly chart that is at least three years long.

Here’s one that caught my eye over the weekend.

This is the S&P 500’s monthly chart going back almost four years. The key items to note are:

1)   The MACD, a key momentum indicator, is on a “Sell” signal (blue circle).

2)   The RSI, another key momentum indicator, shows negative divergence (purple line), with each new high established by the stock market coming on a lower RSI reading.

3)   The stock market itself is in a massive megaphone pattern… with the ultimate upside target only slightly higher than where stocks trade today.

Take these three items together and you’ve got… TWO signs that momentum is fading, right around the time that the stock market is nearing the end of a major technical pattern.

This tells us, that as exciting as the recent rally in stocks has been… we need to look out. At the very least, stocks should see a correction down support at the red line.

If that line doesn’t hold, we could easily see a drop to the low 2,300s.

This would mean…

A Crash is coming… It might not be this week… but the signs are clear… and I wouldn’t ignore them…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sometimes it’s good to take a big picture look at the stock market.

By “big picture” I mean a monthly chart that is at least three years long.

Here’s one that caught my eye over the weekend.

This is the S&P 500’s monthly chart going back almost four years. The key items to note are:

1)   The MACD, a key momentum indicator, is on a “Sell” signal (blue circle).

2)   The RSI, another key momentum indicator, shows negative divergence (purple line), with each new high established by the stock market coming on a lower RSI reading.

3)   The stock market itself is in a massive megaphone pattern… with the ultimate upside target only slightly higher than where stocks trade today.

Take these three items together and you’ve got… TWO signs that momentum is fading, right around the time that the stock market is nearing the end of a major technical pattern.

This tells us, that as exciting as the recent rally in stocks has been… we need to look out. At the very least, stocks should see a correction down support at the red line.

If that line doesn’t hold, we could easily see a drop to the low 2,300s.

This would mean…

A Crash is coming… It might not be this week… but the signs are clear… and I wouldn’t ignore them…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Sometimes it’s good to take a big picture look at the stock market.

By “big picture” I mean a monthly chart that is at least three years long.

Here’s one that caught my eye over the weekend.

This is the S&P 500’s monthly chart going back almost four years. The key items to note are:

1)   The MACD, a key momentum indicator, is on a “Sell” signal (blue circle).

2)   The RSI, another key momentum indicator, shows negative divergence (purple line), with each new high established by the stock market coming on a lower RSI reading.

3)   The stock market itself is in a massive megaphone pattern… with the ultimate upside target only slightly higher than where stocks trade today.

Take these three items together and you’ve got… TWO signs that momentum is fading, right around the time that the stock market is nearing the end of a major technical pattern.

This tells us, that as exciting as the recent rally in stocks has been… we need to look out. At the very least, stocks should see a correction down support at the red line.

If that line doesn’t hold, we could easily see a drop to the low 2,300s.

This would mean…

A Crash is coming… It might not be this week… but the signs are clear… and I wouldn’t ignore them…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Well, that’s that.

The markets surged on the Fed announcement of NO rate cuts because the market now believes the Fed is GUARANTEED to make a MASSIVE cut in July.

The S&P 500 (blue line in the chart below) hit our upside target for this rally, catching up the breadth (black line in the chart below). We might finish the week around here, but going forward anyone going long is effectively “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.”

Between their expectation of a MASSIVE rate cut from the Fed in July… and hype and hope of a trade deal between the US and China at the G-20 next week, the markets are primed for MAJOR disappointment.

Look, let’s face the facts…

The Fed did NOT promise a rate cut yesterday. It removed the word “patient” from its statement and stated “uncertainties about this outlook [strong growth and 2% inflation] have increased…”

Nowhere… and I do mean NOWHERE did the Fed say a rate cut was coming. Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself didn’t even hint at a rate cut during his Q&A session stating that “we’d like to see more going forward” before changing course.

Meanwhile, the markets are SCREAMING that the economy has rolled over. The bond market is telling us the S&P 500 should be 17% lower today.

Ignore this all you like, but bonds were right in December… and they’re going to be right again this time.

Which means…

A Crash is coming…

Those investors who take the right steps to prepare for this, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed meets today and tomorrow.

Based on hopes of a rate cut, traders are attempting to force a breakout in the stock market.

Having broken their downtrend (blue lines in the chart below) and overcoming resistance (red line in the chart below), stocks have been consolidating in a triangle pattern (purple lines in the chart below) over the last week.

As I write this, the market is attempting a breakout… but we need to see follow through here for this to be a confirmed move.

Breadth, which leads price, suggests the final upside target is somewhere around 2,940 or so on the S&P 500. But if we get to that level, the market might as well push for a new all-time high.

What happens then remains to be seen… but the fact that the market is rallying largely on hopes that the Fed can somehow ease financial conditions enough to overcome a global contraction is an EXTREMELY dangerous environment.

The last two times the Fed eased into a contracting economy stocks lost ~50% in the following 12 months. 

Will this time prove different?

Copper, Treasuries, Fed Ex and Oil all say “NO”… they are all forecasting that fair value for the S&P 500 is at 2,500 or lower.

Bear in mind… this is based on an economic recovery hitting in the second half of this year… if a crisis hits, a 50% drop puts S&P 500 down at 1,450.

So while stocks may hold up for a little longer based on hype and hope… economic reality tells us we’re primed for a major collapse.

The bull market is over… we’ve had a failed backtest of the former trendline. The next move is DOWN.

Those investors who take the right steps to prepare for this, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The vast majority of investors think the Fed will cut rates at its meeting this Wednesday.

Maybe it will, maybe it won’t.

The reality is what the Fed does now doesn’t really matter. Globally the economy is contracting… and the last two times the Fed started cutting rates into a slowing economy didn’t work out so well for stocks.

Those times were early 2000 and late 2007… both times the stock market subsequently plunged 50%.

Will this time prove different?

Copper, Treasuries, Fed Ex and Oil all say “NO”… they are all forecasting that fair value for the S&P 500 is at 2,500 or lower.

Bear in mind… this is based on an economic recovery hitting in the second half of this year… if a crisis hits, a 50% drop puts S&P 500 down at 1,450.

So while stocks may hold up for a little longer based on hype and hope… economic reality tells us we’re primed for a major collapse.

The bull market is over… we’ve had a failed backtest of the former trendline. The next move is DOWN.

Those investors who take the right steps to prepare for this, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

While everyone else is focusing on whether or not the Fed will hike rates next week… I’m much more concerned about what the Fed does when it realizes that rate cuts won’t save the markets.

Remember, the last two times the Fed started cutting rates during an economic downturn were 2000 and 2007.

We all remember what happened to stocks during those periods.

Here’s a brief reminder.

Put simply, during an economic downturn, rate cuts aren’t enough to save the markets… which is probably why the Fed is already laying the ground work for truly EXTREME monetary policy.

In the last three months we’ve seen Fed officials suggest that the Fed should:

1)   Make QE a REGULAR monetary policy (as opposed to one used exclusively during emergencies).

2)   Introduce negative interest rates.

3)   Directly intervene in the bond markets to stop yields from reaching certain levels… on a daily basis if needed.

4)   Directly infuse capital straight into the financial system (helicopter money).

The fact the Fed is already suggesting these policies now, BEFORE a crisis hits, tells us just how serious this situation is.

What is it that has the Fed so terrified that it’s openly talking about introducing extreme polices before a crisis hits?

The Everything Bubble has burst…

Purple Circle Shows the Treasury Bubble Bursting

And stocks know it….

Red Lines Show Bull Markets Ending and Crises Beginning

The last two times stocks broke down like this were October of 2000 and December of 2007… just before the markets entered the Tech Crash… and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

Will the Fed succeed in stopping the system from experiencing another crisis?

I don’t know… but I DO KNOW that they will be introducing EXTREME monetary policies to try and stop another financial crisis from happening.

Those investors who take the right steps to prepare for those policies, will make literal fortunes.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining what’s coming in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks are up this morning on news that President Trump came to an acceptable agreement with the Mexican government over the weekend.

As a result of this, his proposed tariffs on Mexico’s good and services to the US were dropped.

Stocks (black line in the chart below) are now within spitting distance of our final upside target for this rally: the low- to mid- 2,900s where Junk Bonds (blue line in the chart below) have been signaling that stocks were heading for several weeks now.

However, after that the market reaches those levels, it’s primed for a collapse.

Why?

The Mexico situation was an easy one to resolve… the China situation … not so much.

The markets are still pinning their hopes on a deal being struck between US and China at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan at the end of this month.

This won’t happen… and bonds know it.

Regarding a US/ China Trade deal… if this was coming at the end of the month the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields (red line in the chart below) have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

Which means…

A Crash is coming…

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

As I noted yesterday, this rally looks to have legs… for now.

The stock market broke out of its downtrend yesterday (red lines). It remains below resistance (blue line). A break to the upside here, would open the door to a run to 2,900 on the S&P 500.

Again… this is where credit suggests stocks will move. Junk Bonds hit the equivalent levels of 2,910 on the S&P 500 yesterday.

This again would confirm my thesis that this rally has a week or more to go.

After that, the real action begins.

The real action will consist of stocks giving up all hope of a China/ US trade deal being made…

Right now stocks are pinning their hopes on President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping coming to some kind of agreement at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan on June 28^th-June 29^th.

This won’t happen.

If it was… the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Powers That Be are terrified of what’s coming

How terrified?

US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, hosted a secret meting last week with the Financial Stability Oversight Council or FSOC…

If you’re unfamiliar with the FSOC, it was formed after the 2008 crisis… and is charged with stopping another similar crisis from hitting.

This group involves top officials from the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, the SEC and other groups… all charged with holding the financial system together.

My question to you is…

Why is the group responsible for stopping another 2008 happening meeting when stocks are a mere 7% off their all time highs?

The answer is simple… because they realize the bubble is bursting… and are frantically trying to get out on front of what’s coming..

The concern is that if the economy falters, loan losses would climb dramatically and other companies would be more likely to default on their outstanding bonds. 

Minutes from the Financial Stability Oversight Council’s March 6 meeting, released Thursday, show that Ted Berg, a Treasury Department researcher, warned panel members that even the non-junk debt could see $300 million to $1 trillion of credit-rating downgrades during the next downturn.

   Source: theStreet.com

Put simply, the most powerful group of financial regulators on the planet is preparing for a potentially $1 trillion default cycle in the corporate sector…

They know, that this mess is Subprime 2.0… and that it, like subprime mortgages in 2007-2008, is going to trigger a market meltdown.

Indeed, the Junk Bond ETF has broken its bull market trendline… AND been rejected by former support.

So what happens to stocks, once this bubble bursts?

We’re going to find out soon…

A Crash is coming…

And when it does, smart investors will lock in TRIPLE DIGIT… and possibly even QUADRUPLE DIGIT RETURNS.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

As I write this, there are only 7 copies left.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research