Stocks are currently in a bear market. The average bear market is 9 months long and sees stocks lose 30%.
Thus far this bear market is six months old, and stocks are down just 21%. So, the issue is determining just how much further we have to go.
As I’ve mentioned previously, at the very least we can expect this bear market to see the S&P 500 break down to touch its 40-month moving average (this is the same thing as the 200-week moving average). The 40-MMA is illustrated by the red line in the chart below.
The bigger question is what happens there.
During the COVID-19 crash, the Fed moved to support the entire financial system. That is the only thing that stopped stocks from entering a full-scale crisis.
During a full-scale crisis, the S&P 500 usually breaks its 40-MMA and then wipes out almost the entirety of the previous bull market’s gains. I’ve illustrated this with blue rectangles in the chart below.
A similar move this time around would mean the S&P 500 falling to at least 1,750.
Will this happen? It’s certainly possible. As I mentioned a moment ago, the only thing that pulled the market back from the brink in 2020 was the Fed moving to ease monetary conditions in an extraordinary way.
This time around, the Fed is trying to tackle inflation… so easing would only worsen the problem! The Fed has only raised rates to 1% and will begin shrinking its balance sheet on June 15th… and stocks have already lost 20% of their value.
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent or more. What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet by $1+ trillion.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
Today is the last day this report will be available to the public.
The financial media is pushing the narrative that the Fed is about to “pivot” in terms of inflation.
Put simply, the argument is that inflation has peaked, so the Fed won’t need to raise rates by 0.5% past the month of September, at which point it will either PAUSE raising rates or continue to raise them albeit at a slower pace of 0.25% per raise.
And it’s total nonsense.
Inflation is now over 8%. The Fed funds rate is at 1%. Even if the Fed hikes rates to 3% by September (it won’t), it’s still NOWHERE near stopping inflation.
The people pushing this narrative in the media are being fed stories by fund managers who were desperate to game performance last month. Most funds had horrific months in May. And since they need to report their results at month end, they needed a reason to justify why stocks suddenly exploded higher for three days right at the end of the month.
Enter the “Fed pivot” narrative.
It’s total nonsense… but if spouting nonsense was a dealbreaker in this industry, most of the financial media would be out of business.
Let’s dive into this a bit more.
Inflation is over 8%.
The Fed has YET to shrink its balance sheet at all. As I write this, the balance sheet is within spitting distance of $9 TRILLION.
Meanwhile, the Fed funds rate is at 1%.
Again, the notion that the Fed has done enough to take it easy regarding inflation is 100% nonsense.
History has shown us, quite clearly, that once inflation is in the financial system, the Fed CANNOT stop it with half measures.
This means that in order for the Fed to truly bring inflation to task… it will need to get AGGRESSIVE.
Bear in mind that the meager efforts the Fed has made thus has already caused stocks to do this…
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent or more. What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet by $1+ trillion.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For those looking to prepare for and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how!
Today is
the last day this report is available to the public.
We extended our offer by an additional 24 hours due to the holiday weekend, but this is it… no more extensions!
The stock market is pretty scary these days, isn’t it?
Anyone who is bullish on stocks… or thinks they are cheap and worth buying, keeps getting wrecked. It’s not entirely their fault; the non-stop interventions by “someone” keep making it appear as if there are real buyers in the markets.
Yesterday showed us that there aren’t.
The S&P 500 came charging out of the gate yesterday… but gave up much of the gains around noon. If it weren’t for two OBVIOUS manipulations by “someone” which I’ve highlighted in the chart below, the market would have closed DOWN on the day.
This is the problem with blatant manipulation: it works in the short-term, but does nothing to fix the primary problem with the markets… namely that prices are not at levels at which REAL buyers want to buy.
One way to get around this issue is to focus on long-term charts.
By focusing on what stocks are doing in weekly or monthly terms, you can tune out much of the “noise” caused by interventions that only last a few hours or even minutes.
Here is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. As you can see, the market has taken out its 10-month moving average (blue line). As the last eight years have shown, any time stocks do this, they end up dropping to at least the 40-month moving average (red line).
What’s REALLY scary about this chart is the fact that the last FOUR times this happened, the Fed stopped the collapse by easing monetary conditions.
This time around the Fed CANNOT ease monetary policy.
Why?
Because monetary easing unleashed the very thing what triggered the collapse in the first place: inflation. More easing will only make the situation worse!
Put simply, the Fed is NOT coming to the rescue this time. Stocks could very well break below that red line and wipe out years of gains.
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
Private Wealth Advisory subscribers are doing just that.
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But that’s not all…
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As I write this ALL THREE are exploding higher.
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The manipulations in the stock market are getting ridiculous.
“Someone” forced stocks higher on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 55 points in just 24 minutes started at 3:10PM. And when that didn’t do the job and sellers returned, the market was then forced 29 points higher in just three minutes!
So all in all, the S&P 500, one of the largest stocks markets in the world, was ramped roughly 2% higher via two interventions in the span of just 28 minutes.
Again, this is ridiculous.
Was it the Fed? A large hedge fund? Several institutions? Who knows. The only thing we do know is that it wasn’t real buyers looking to invest at those prices… this was abject manipulation.
The problem with this is that it doesn’t work… stocks have broken critical support (red line in the chart below) based on the Fed ending its money printing and raising rates to 1%.
Put another way, the Fed hasn’t even begun shrinking its balance sheet and already the S&P 500 is in a bear market.
The NASDAQ is even worse. It’s unwound more HALF of the entire move from the March 2020 bottom. And again, the Fed has barely begun to tighten monetary policy.
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent (they’re 1% now)? What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet by $1+ trillion.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made
100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 49 left.
For decades, investors have been conditioned to “buy the dip” because the Fed invariably steps in to prop up the stock market whenever a collapse begins in earnest.
The Fed did this throughout 2009-2017, in 2018, and again from 2020-early 2022.
For this reason, investors continue to move into stocks, despite the fact stocks are clearly in a bear market. The below chart is clear: the uptrend (blue line) from the March 2020 lows is broken. Moreover, stocks have taken out critical support (red line).
If you’re buying stocks because you believe the Fed is going to “save the day” again, you’re in for a world of hurt. Sure, the Fed has done this in the past… but inflation wasn’t present during those times.
It is now.
Basic economics tells us:
Demand + Supply = Price.
Supply for most items is down due to supply chain issues. Meanwhile, demand is UP due to the Fed and Federal Government pumping some $11 TRILLION into the financial system over the last two years.
Higher demand + Lower Supply = RAGING Inflation.
The Fed cannot fix the supply issues. It can’t print oil, tin, copper, or any of the other commodities the economy needs. The Fed is also powerless to address the dock worker, trucker, transportation labor shortages the country faces.
This means the only way the Fed can kill inflation is to destroy demand by triggering a recession. Put another way… the Fed DOESN’T CARE about stocks.
If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll be Fed President Esther George.
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George said Thursday that higher interest rates are needed now to bring down inflation and that policymakers are not focused on the impact that is having on the stock market.
Source: CNBC
Bear in mind… inflation is at 8+%… rates are at 1%… the Fed hasn’t even begun shrinking its balance sheet yet… and stocks are already doing this:
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent (they’re 1% now)? What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet by $1+ trillion.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made 100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 7 left.
The #1 rule for investing is “don’t fight the Fed.”The Fed is the single most powerful force in the markets.
If the Fed is printing money to force markets higher… markets will go higher. And if the Fed is tightening monetary conditions to force markets lower… markets will GO LOWER.
I bring all of this up because from March 2020 to March 2022, the Fed printed almost $5 TRILLION in money. This money was used to push the markets almost straight up.
The consequence of this was raging inflation.
Inflation is now over 8%. And it has become the #1 issue for Americans. This is not a left vs right issue. Whether you believe polls from Fox News or CNN, inflation is the single most important issue for Americans today.
Supply issues are a BIG part of this. Economies are not like light switches: you can’t just turn them off… and then turn them back on without major problems. And the biggest problem is that the supply chain was broken.
The Fed has admitted it can’t do anything about the supply chain. It can’t print oil or dock workers/ truckers/ semiconductors… any of the things that are making it harder to find supplies today.
All the Fed can do is CRUSH demand… by triggering a recession.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell LITERALLY spelled this out yesterday when he told audience members at the Wall Street Journal Future of Everything Festival, “we have to slow growth.”
This is the single most powerful central banker in the world telling us to our faces that the Fed will crush economic growth (read: trigger a recession) in order to destroy inflation.
Bear in mind… stocks are already down almost 20%… and the Fed has only just stopped printing money. Put another way, it hasn’t even begun draining liquidity yet!
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent (they’re 1% now)? What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet by $1+ trillion.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made 100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 19 left.
As I keep warning,
the Mother of All Collapses is coming to the markets.
We’ve already
detailed just how insane this Everything Bubble is.
Options trading volume (a sign of
speculation) was exponentially higher than it was during the Tech
Bubble which everyone on the planet now knows was an insane bubble.
Crypto currencies that were invented as
jokes (Dogecoin) were being valued at tens of billions of dollars.
Tesla (TSLA), which sold ~300,000 cars in
2020, was worth more than the value of every other auto manufacturer on
the planet combined.
People were selling Non-Fungible Tokes
(NFTs) of farts, toilet paper, New York Times articles and more.
All of the above
items outline insane levels of speculation in individual assets, but they don’t
fully illustrate just how MASSIVE this bubble is.
Check out the below
chart from Jim Bianco.
Yes, the stock market
is now valued at ~200% of GDP. And this level is actually down from 228% of
GDP which was the peak last November.
The Tech Bubble,
which everyone understands was an egregious stock market bubble, peaked at 182%
of GDP in March of 2000.
Put another way,
even with stocks down 20% from their all-time highs (more if you’re using the
NASDAQ to calculate), today the stock market is still a larger bubble than
the TECH BUBBLE AT ITS PEAK!
So again, the Mother
of All Collapses is coming.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made
100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 25 left.
As I mentioned yesterday, the Mother of All Collapses is Coming
And if you think the Fed is coming to the rescue stocks this time, you’re sadly mistaken.
Historically the Fed “saves the day” by intervening in the markets whenever they come unhinged. Well, the markets are already down 20% and we haven’t heard a peep from the Fed. If anything, Fed officials are calling for the Fed to be more aggressive in tightening monetary policy.
There’s a reason for this: inflation.
The U.S. is experiencing its first inflationary storm since the 1970s. Inflation has become the #1 issue for voters. And it’s the mid-terms this year.
And the Fed is feeling the heat from the political classes.
President Biden, who appointed Jerome Powell to a second term as Fed Chair EXPLICITLY called out the Fed earlier this week.
As I said yesterday, inflation is a challenge for families across the country and bringing it down is my top economic priority. This starts with the Federal Reserve, which plays a primary role in fighting inflation in our country…[emphasis added]
~President Biden speaking on inflation 5/10/22.
Yes, the White House is laying the blame for inflation SQUARELY on the Fed’s shoulders. The rest of the Beltway crowd as well as the media will soon be joining in.
Which means… the Fed is being forced to ignore stocks in order to end inflation. And it has a LOOONG ways to go.
Inflation is over 8%. The Fed has rates at 1%. And it has yet to even begin draining liquidity from the system with Quantitative Tightening.
And stocks have already done this:
What happens when the Fed is forced to raise rates to FIVE percent? What happens when it tries to shrink its nine TRILLION dollar balance sheet.
You get the idea.
The Mother of All Collapses is coming!
The time to prepare is NOW before it hits.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made
100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 37 left.
The Fed claims it
can tackle inflation without triggering a crisis.
Good luck with
that!
The Fed triggered
a crisis with the Tech Bubble (a bubble in a single stock market sector) and
the Housing Bubble (a bubble in a single asset class). And neither of those are
remotely comparable to this last bubble.
This is the
Everything Bubble: the bubble in every major asset class (stocks, housing,
corporate debt, municipal debt, etc.)
Some of the most
egregious signs of froth/ financial excess.
Options trading volume (a sign of
speculation) was exponentially higher than it was during the Tech
Bubble which everyone on the planet now knows was an insane bubble.
Crypto currencies that were invented as
jokes (Dogecoin) were being valued at tens of billions of dollars.
Tesla (TSLA), which sold ~300,000 cars in
2020, was worth more than the value of every other auto manufacturer on
the planet combined.
People were selling Non-Fungible Tokes
(NFTs) of farts, toilet paper, New York Times articles and more.
“Meme stocks” or stocks that were traded
for ironic/ humorous purposes were doing this:
Former President Trump’s Special Purpose
Acquisition Company (SPAC) rose to a value of $5 billion despite
having no business or operations.
And the Fed
believes it can somehow tackle inflation… AND dissipate this bubble without
blowing things up?
Ok, I’ll bite.
Inflation is at
8+%. The Fed has raised rates to 1%. It has yet to even begin shrinking its
balance sheet. And stocks have done this:
What happens when
the Fed is forced to raise rates to 5%? What happens when it tries to shrink
its balance sheet buy $1 trillion+?
You get the idea.
The Mother of All
Collapses is coming.
For
those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
We made
100 copies available to the public. As I write this, there are 49 left.
The bond market is
NOT calming down. Last week the yield on the all-important 10-Year U.S. Treasury
(the most important bond in the world) spiked to new highs for this bull run.
Why does this
matter?
Because the yield
on this bond represents the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk
assets are priced. Every move higher in this yields means risk assets
(including stocks) will be priced lower.
Put another way,
until the bond market calms down ALL BETS ARE OFF for stocks. This is why the
S&P 500 took out critical support last week.
For those looking to prepare
and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival
Guide can show you how.
Within its 21
pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown
as well as how to take out “Crash
insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up
your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Thus far the bond market doesn’t believe the Fed is serious about tackling inflation. Why would it? The Fed printed another $55 billion after its QE program supposedly ended… and has only raised rates by 0.25%.
Meanwhile inflation is clocking in at 8.5%.
This is why the yield on the 2-year Treasury continues to move higher… the bond market is telling the Fed that it (the Fed) hasn’t done enough. Put another way, the bond market doesn’t think the Fed’s current plan to tackle inflation is credible.
The 30-year Treasury is even more important than the 2-year. This is because bonds of longer duration do a better job of indicating what long-term implications of Fed incompetence.
Put simply, this yield NEEDS to stabilize, otherwise the Fed risks losing control and we enter a bond crisis shortly.
Again, all eyes are on the Fed today. Either the Fed’s strategy is credible and things stabilize… or it’s crisis time. And if it’s crisis time… buckle up, because this current bubble is even larger than the Housing Bubble.
For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess,
our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform
best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
Yesterday I noted that the bond market is crashing.
By quick way of review:
1) The Fed is horribly behind the curve on inflation. This has resulted in Treasury yields spiking as Treasury bonds collapse.
2) The pace of the spike in yields is truly historic: in six months, they’ve moved the same amount as they did in three years from 2003 to 2006 and in six years from 2012-2018.
3) The last time bond yields spiked like this was in 2018. At that time the corporate debt markets froze and stocks crashed 20% in a matter of weeks.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the end of the bad news either!
The 10-year U.S. Treasury is the single most important bond in the world. The reason for this is that A) it is issued by the U.S., which is the largest, most dynamic, economy in the world and B) 10 years represents a full economic cycle.
The yield on this bond has just broken out of its 35+ year downtrend for the second time in decades.
As the above chart shows, the first break took place in 2018.
As I mentioned yesterday, at that time the Fed was raising rates four times a year while also shrinking its balance sheet by $500 billion. The end result was the junk bond market froze and stocks crashed (see blue rectangle in the chart below). This forced the Fed to abandon tightening monetary policy.
By way of contrast, during this latest breakout of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, the Fed has only just ended QE, has yet to shrink its balance sheet at all, and has only raised rates ONCE.
Again, this is a HUGE freaking deal. Last time this happened the Fed could start easing monetary conditions to stop the carnage. This time around, the Fed CANNOT. It has to continue tightening monetary policy or risk inflation destroying the economy.
Put simply, the Fed needs to decide… does it save stocks or bonds.
Saving stocks means risking a debt crisis that would make 2008 look like a picnic.
Savings bonds means stocks collapsing… but the system remains intact.
Which do you think the Fed will choose?
The stage is set for a historic collapse. It might not be today or tomorrow… but it’s coming.
For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess,
our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform
best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
As
I outlined several weeks agothe financial system is now experiencing
its first coordinated central bank tightening in over a decade.
The
reason for this tightening is inflation. Inflation is a global phenomenon. Once
it appears, it is everywhere. That is the case today.
Our
current financial system is based on debt. Sovereign bonds, particularly U.S.
Treasuries, are the bedrock of the financial system. These are the senior-most
assets owned by large financial institutions. And the yields on these bonds
represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all assets (stocks,
commodities, real estate, etc.) are valued.
The
yields on bonds have been spiking due to inflation. This is what forced central
banks to begin tightening monetary policy. But thus far, they are failing
to slow, let alone kill inflation.
The
U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (or Fed) raised rates by 0.25% in March.
It was supposed to have ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) program that same
month, but for whatever reason, chose to print another $55 billion during that
time.
The yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury, has since spiked from
2.0% to 2.6%. That is a MASSIVE move for one of the most important bonds in the
world (chart on the next page).
A similar move has taken place with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury, which is the single most important bond in the world. The yield on this bond has spiked from 2.1% to 2.9%.
To
put these moves into context, bonds, particularly, sovereign bonds, are NOT
like stocks. A 2% move is a BIG move for bonds. And we are talking about
a 5% move in the most important bonds in the world over the span of four weeks…
when the Fed is tightening.
This means that the Fed is now MORE behind the curve on
inflation than it was four weeks ago. That is a huge freaking deal. It means
the bond market doesn’t believe the Fed is going to kill inflation yet. The Fed
will need to be MUCH more aggressive to do so.
It is difficult to express the severity of what is happening
right now in bonds. So let me provide some longer-term charts to help you
visualize this.
Look
at the speed of this rise in yields relative to what bonds have done over the
last 20 years. From 2003 to 2006 the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury rose
from 1.00% to 5.00%. This represents a quintupling in yield. And it
occurred when the Fed was raising rates continuously for three years straight
during a major economic expansion.
By
way of contrast, the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury has just gone from 0.25%
to 2.6% in the span of six months.
That
too is a quintupling in yield. And it took place at a time when the
economy is faltering, and the Fed has barely begun tightening policy.
You can now see why this is a HUGE deal. The entire financial system will now need to reprice based on this different rate of return. The last time we saw this occur was in 2018. That’s when stocks did this:
Put
simply, another collapse is coming. It might not be today or Monday… but it’s
coming.
For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess,
our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform
best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
I’ve received a number of emails asking me why stocks rallied from mid-March until this week despite the clear and obvious warning signals I’ve flagged: the economy rolling over, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and a hawkish Fed.
A significant part of this rally has been fueled by investors moving money out of bonds and into stocks. The reason for this is that bond prices fall/ bond yields rise during periods of higher inflation. This means bonds are less attractive as an asset class… which, according to modern portfolio theory, means it’s time to move capital into stocks. And not just a little.
Throughout March, investors have pulled $40 BILLION from bond funds while putting $45 billion into stocks. Because the U.S. is the “cleanest dirty shirt” as far as developed markets go, some $41 billion of the $45 billion in stock fund inflows has gone to U.S.-based funds
This is why stocks rallied in March, despite the OBVIOUS red flags. It’s not that stocks are a great investment at current prices… it’s that bonds are so much worse.
However, this looks ready to change.
The technical damage of the last few weeks has been severe. As I write this, the S&P 500 is hovering around its 50-week/ 10 month moving average. If it breaks lower here… it’s going to at least 4,200 if not 3,600.
I would also point out that the Monthly MACD (a momentum gauge) is now on a “sell signal.” This has preceded declines of 20+% every time it registered in the last four years.
Put simply, another bloodbath is coming… and smart investors are already taking steps to profit from it.
For those looking to prepare
and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival
Guide can show you how.
Within its 21
pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown
as well as how to take out “Crash
insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up
your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
“Someone”
is manipulating stocks higher. And the manipulations are getting even more
desperate.
Over
the last two weeks, there has been a determined effort to manipulate the stock
market higher. Time and again, stocks have gone vertical on new news or no
major developments.
Financial
institutions do NOT attempt to move markets. In fact, the traders charged with
executing these institutions’ trades are graded based
on their ability to buy and sell large chunks of stocks without
moving the tape.
Which is why we knew that no real investor was responsible for the moves that occurred yesterday from 9:35AM to 11:00AM, again at 3PM and finally at 3:40PM. All three of those moves saw the S&P 500 move 20-50 points on no news or developments.
No real investor does this. This is egregious
manipulation. And it shows us that the manipulators are becoming increasingly
desperate.
Why?
High yield credit, which typically leads the stock market, is telling us the S&P 500 should be down at 3,900 (stocks are at 4,400 right now). You can see it lead stocks higher throughout 2021. And now it’s leading them lower. Without manipulation, the S&P 500 would easily be sub-4000.
In simple terms, the signs are clear: another bloodbath is coming.
The markets will soon be a sea of red again. And the losses will be staggering.
And
it’s just the beginning. It’s quite possible the markets are entering a
prolonged BEAR MARKET… a time in which stocks lose 50% or more over the
course of months.
For those
looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.
Within its 21
pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown
as well as how to take out “Crash
insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up
your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
The S&P 500 cannot even maintain its 50-day moving average (DMA). And this is despite the Fed pumping $55 billion into the financial system in the last month. Moreover, the 50-DMA is rolling over again. All of this is quite bearish.
The picture is even uglier for the NASDAQ. Tech stocks broke back below their 50-DMA last week. They have since failed to reclaim it. Again, this is quite bearish.
At the end of the day, the only thing holding up stocks is the fact retail investors keep “buying the dip.” Having been conditioned to believe stocks never go down courtesy of two years of Fed interventions, this crowd continues to buy at every opportunity. They’ve collectively poured $40 billion into U.S.-based stock funds in the last six weeks.
I’m guessing no one showed them this chart:
The market is on thin ice. The next bloodbath is just around the corner.
For those looking to prepare
and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival
Guide can show you how.
Within its 21
pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown
as well as how to take out “Crash
insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up
your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:
If you’ve been wondering why stocks suddenly exploded higher last month… wonder no more!
We were told the Fed ended its Quantitative Easing (QE) on March 9th 2022. That’s a strange claim given that the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded by $55 BILLION since that time. Heck, the Fed just bought ~$25 billion worth of Mortgage Backed-Securities (MBS) last week.
How odd… the Fed supposedly ended QE… but right as stocks began to break down, “someone” suddenly panic bought the markets forcing them higher… and then it turns out the Fed was actually expanding its balance sheet by $55 billion over the same time period.
To put this number into perspective, the Fed’s former QE program, the one that supposedly ended, was roughly $30 billion per month at the time it concluded. In this context, the Fed roughly DOUBLED the pace of its former QE to $55 billion… in the month AFTER QE SUPPOSEDLY ENDED.
So again, the Fed are total liars. QE didn’t end. In fact, it became larger!
Meanwhile, according to official data, inflation hit 8.5% in March of 2022… the highest year over year increase in over 40 years. And if we were to use accurate methods for measuring inflation, it’d be over 12%.
Again, the Fed is lying. They are not tightening monetary policy. And inflation is only going to get worse from here. If you want to protect your portfolio from what’s coming, you need to act now.
On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.
The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.
Unbeknownst to most U.S. investors, a single family has been behind many of the largest natural resource discoveries and natural resource deals of the last 45 years.
Since 1976, they’ve discovered the largest natural gas field in the world, oil fields that have generated more than 300 million barrels of oil, and several of the world’s largest gold deposits.
They all became billionaires in the process.
Today, this family controls 12 companies located in the U.S., France, Russia, China, and more. Every year they produce more than a billion dollars’ worth of oil, gold, uranium, nickel, and diamonds. Their name is the Lundins. And just like the Rockefeller or Carnegie empires, their fortunes began with a single self-made man: Swedish patriarch, Adolf Lundin.
If you’ve never heard of Adolf Lundin, it’s not surprising. The self-made Swedish billionaire invested primarily in natural resource companies outside of the U.S. Because of this, his name is rarely known outside of natural resource investing circles.
However, to anyone involved in natural resources investing, Adolf Lundin is something of a god. Between 1976 and 1999, Adolf Lundin made four of the largest natural resource discoveries in history. In 1976, he discovered the North Gas field offshore of Qatar: then the largest natural gas field in the world.
This alone would cement the name Lundin in the pantheon of great resource discoverers.
However, Adolf’s success was only beginning. In 1998, he discovered both the En Naga oil field (a 100-million-barrel discovery in Libya) and Block PM-3 (a 144-million-barrel discovery offshore of Malaysia). The following year, at age 67, he discovered the Thar Jath oil field: a 150-million barrel discovery in Sudan.
These discoveries made Adolf famous. But it was his ability as a dealmaker that made him rich. The natural resources industry is typically split between two groups: the financiers and the geologist/ explorers.
Adolf Lundin was both.
He built up Lundin Oil and sold it in 2001 for $480 million. Musto Exploration, a gold company he owned shares in, was sold to Rio Aglom for $500 million. And another gold company, Argentina Gold, went to Homestake for $300 million. By the time he retired from exploring, Adolf was a billionaire. And he’d made many investors fortunes as well.
It sounds almost too simple, but anyone who bought shares in Lundin’s companies and held long-term would have made a fortune. Investing in natural resource companies, more than any other sector, is about putting your money with the right people.
On the one hand, you need expert geologists and wildcatters capable of discovering major finds. But you also need knowledgeable financiers who can put together the capital to start production or arrange a buy-out. Since Adolf Lundin was talented at both, his involvement in a company almost always resulted in large profits.
Adolf passed in September 2006. Today, the Lundin Group is run by two of his sons, Lukas and Ian. Both were brought into the family business at a very early age: by the time they were ten, it was decided that Lukas would manage the company’s minerals business segment while Ian would handle the oil segment.
I recently told subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter about an “off the radar” Lundin project that 99% of investors don’t know about. It’s a small company that owns the rights to 5km of land in one of the richest environments for natural resources in the world.
The company has released the initial results of its drilling program in January of 2022… and they are astounding… as Lukas Lundin puts it… the potential of this project is “unparalleled” to anything he’s seen in his 40+ year career.
That’s quite a statement from a man who has literally made BILLIONS of dollars investing in natural resources.
Private Wealth Advisory subscribers just began building a position in this company yesterday. Already they’re up. And I fully expect them to see triple digit returns from this company when it’s all said and done.
To find out what it is, all you NEED to do is take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.
A SIX (6) MONTH subscription to PrivateWealth Advisory includes:
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If you find it’s not what you’re looking for, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription. You won’t pay another cent!
The book, reports and ideas you collect during that time are yours to keep. Heck, the book alone is worth $9.99, and you’re getting FREE shipping on it!
Don’t miss out on this opportunity… because the doors will close on this offer shortly. And you and your portfolio will regret missing out on it!
Pop quiz… what is the single best performing stock market sector of 2022?
If you guessed tech or Bitcoin, you’re incorrect. It’s actually energy. And it’s not even close.
Energy stocks are destroying EVERYTHING, including cryptocurrencies. Forget bitcoin, have you thought about profiting from oil?
Even more incredible is the fact that this isn’t a NEW development: the energy sector was the top performing stock market sector of 2021 as well! So it’s crushing everything else for well over 15 months!
Despite this incredible performance, the energy sector remains one of the least popular areas of investment on the planet. It’s actually the cheapest sector in the S&P 500 on a Price to Earnings (P/E) basis. And it is also the smallest sector by weight in the entire market: a mere 2.3%.
So you’ve got an incredibly cheap sector that’s unloved by the institutional crowd and that is outperforming every other sector in the market.
Sounds like a recipe for life-changing wealth to me!
For more market insights, including which stocks to buy and sell to maximize your market returns, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com
The Fed released its meeting minutes from March yesterday.
The highlights are:
1) The Fed will likely begin raising rates by 0.5%, instead of 0.25% sometime this year.
2) The Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet by $95 billion per month, sometime in the next three months.
Anyone who tells you this is NOT bearish is out of their mind. The Fed is announcing publicly that it needs to tighten financial conditions as rapidly as possible. This is akin to the Fed screaming, “we want stocks lower and soon.”
If you don’t believe me, perhaps you’ll listen to Bill Dudley.
Bill Dudley is the ex-President of the New York Fed: the branch of the Fed in charge of financial markets. He is also the ex-chief economist for Goldman Sachs. He is the ultimate insider’s insider, a man who not only knows how the Fed controls things, but who actually ran the programs through which the Fed did it.
Mr. Dudley published an article in Bloomberg earlier this week that was truly jaw-dropping. The title?
If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them
In his piece, Mr. Dudley makes it clear that the Fed believes it can control the economy via the stock market, not the other way around. In his own words, he writes, “
“Equity prices [stocks] influence how wealthy [Americans] feel, and how willing they are to spend rather than save…”
In simple terms, the American consumer is 75% of GDP. When the stock market is up a lot, Americans feel wealthier and spend more. When the stock market collapses, they feel poorer and spend less.
Mr. Dudley then states that the Fed needs to COLLAPSE the markets to force Americans to spend less… which will end inflation. He writes…
“The Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response.”
This is not the ramblings of some doom and gloom blogger… this is THE man who ran the Fed’s QE programs during from 2009-2018, when the Fed was literally attempting to save the financial system from the Great Financial Crisis.
And he is calling on the Fed to crash the markets. And don’t forget where stock prices are right now relative to the last two crashes.
For those
looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash
Survival Guide can show you how.
Within its
21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market
meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these
instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).
To pick up
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