Month: May 2016

A “Big Money” Making Move is Coming to the Markets Soon…

Traders gunned the market higher last week thanks to extremely low volume (most of Wall Street left early for the holiday weekend) and the usual performance (many funds have to record results at month end).

The S&P 500 has now slammed up against overhead resistance (red line). We are once again within spitting distance of the all-time highs.

GPC531151

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

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Against this backdrop, earnings are in a free-fall. EPS are back at 2012 levels, while the S&P 500 is 70% higher than then:

 

GPC531162

This divergence is only getting worse. Of the 111 companies that have issued guidance for 2Q16, an incredible 80% are NEGATIVE.

More and more this environment feels like late 2007/ early 2008: when the economy was in collapse but stocks held up on hopes that the Fed could maintain the bubble.

The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you’d prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Smart Traders Who Realize This Pattern Could Make a Killing

The markets are tracking the same pattern that played out in 2015.

Most market action (more than 80%) today is driven by computer algorithms. These programs look for an asset class that is moving, and then buy based on the momentum.

From March through May, the moving asset class is Oil, which historically tends to rally during this period. In 2015, Oil bottomed in March and rallied hard into June.

GPC526161

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

This year, the same pattern played out. However, the pattern hit a month early as traders and computers tried to front-run each other. Oil bottomed in February and has risen to $50 per barrel.

GPC526162

Anyone who is buying into this rally in the belief that it represents the start of a new bull market needs to consider what happened in 2015 when the seasonal trend ended: Oil crashed, pulling stock down with it.

GPC526163

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Is the Derivatives Markets About to Implode the System Again?

The 2008 Crash was caused by the unregulated derivatives markets. And if you think that problem has been fixed, you’re mistaken.

Consider Deutsche Bank (DB).

DB sits atop the largest derivatives book in the world.

This one bank has over $75 trillion in derivatives on its balance sheet. This is over 20 times German GDP and roughly the same size as global GDP.

At this size, if even 0.01% of these derivatives are “at risk,” you’ve wiped ALL of the banks’ capital.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

The bank’s CEO was “very disappointed” when Moody’s recently downgraded its credit rating.

Personally, we’d be a lot more disappointed by the share price.

DB shares have gone effectively NOWHERE for nearly 20 years. Moreover, this might be the single largest Head and Shoulders topping pattern ever. As we write this, we’re right on the neckline.

GPC52516

DB is perhaps the best example of the derivatives problem, but it is by no means the only one. US banks alone have over $200 trillion in derivatives sitting on their balance sheets.

And over 77% of these derivatives are based on interest rates.

This comes to roughly $156 trillion in interest rate-based derivatives… sitting on the TBTF balance sheets.

If even 0.1% of this money is “at risk” it would wipe out 10% of the big banks equity. If 1% were “at risk” it would wipe out ALL of the big banks’ equity.

Suffice to say, the Fed cannot afford a spike in interest rates without imploding the big banks: the very banks it has funneled TRILLIONS of dollars to in an effort to prop up.

At some point this whole mess will come crashing down just as it did in 2008. The derivatives market remains a $600 TRILLION Ticking Time Bomb.

The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you’d prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?

A Major Money Making Opportunity Just Triggered For Stocks

It has now been a year since stocks hit a new all-time high.

That is correct, despite having two massive bounces, driven by tremendous Central bank intervention, the S&P 500 remains well below it all time high of 2130 established May 21 2015.

GPC52316

Why does this matter?

Because it greatly increases the odds of stocks entering a bear market.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

As Jeff Hirsch notes, going back to 1929, there were thirteen times that stocks failed to hit a new all-time high for a period of 12 months.

Of those 13, TEN TIMES (76%) stocks entered a bear market collapse of 20% or greater before beginning a major leg up to new highs.

This would mean the S&P 500 falling to 1,640 or even lower.

GPC523162

This whole mess feels just like the end of 2007 or the beginning of 2008 to me.

The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you’d prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Is the Stock Market About to Hit Another Air Pocket?

For most investors, the sudden collapses in stocks that we keep experiencing feel they like they come “out of the blue.”

After all, we are told incessantly by the Government and the media that the economy is going strong and that everything is great for the stock market.

If those claims are true, how do you get moments like these, when the market enters a free-fall, erasing months’ worth of gains in a few days?

GPC52016

These periods happen because the hype and hope about a recovery are based on a few key data points (GDP growth and the unemployment rate) that are heavily massaged to make things look better than they are.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

The reality is that the “recovery” is in fact much weaker than is commonly believed.

And a lot of times those “great numbers” are revised sharply down long after the headlines fade.

Case in point, the BLS recently revised its data for industrial production growth over the last few years much lower.

In fact, according to the BLS, industrial production since 2009 has only grown by a measly 5%, instead of the 14.3% that has been claimed by the media.

Even more incredibly, industrial production today remains 9% BELOW where it was in 2007 at the last economic peak.

In this light, periods like the ones market below are periods in which REALITY breaks through the MYTH of recovery.

GPC52016

The Fed often reacts by propping up the markets to stop a collapse… but as we’ve learned during the Tech Crash and Housing Meltdown, you can only prop up a LIE for so long.

Indeed, the markets look to me like they’re finally going to enter the BIG collapse we’ve been predicting.

GPC520162

This whole mess feels just like the end of 2007 or beginning of 2008 to me.

The time to prepare for this bubble to burst is now. Imagine if you’d prepared for the 2008 Crash back in late 2007? We did, and our clients made triple digit returns when the markets imploded.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Dreaded DEATH Cross Formation Has Just Hit the Markets

The following is a sample of the RESEARCH THAT MAKES MONEY for subscribers of  Private Wealth Advisory

Smart investors have noted that the S&P 500 just staged a very dangerous looking move.

That move was when S&P 500’s 50-week moving average broke below its 100-week moving average. You can see this in the green circle below.

GPC519161

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

This move is called a “Death Cross” and for good reason. The last time it happened was in 2008, right before the entire market CRASHED.

GPC519162

The time before that was right before the Tech Bubble burst, crashing stocks.

GPC519163

In short, going back over 16 years, this Death Cross formation has only hit TWICE before. Both times were when major bubbles burst and stocks Crashed.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Stocks Prepare to Crash as the Last Buyer Stops Buying

Stocks are now on borrowed time.

Corporate buybacks have been the single largest driver of stock prices in the last quarter. Institutional investors have been net sellers for 15 weeks. And individual investors have been pulling capital out of stock funds in record amounts.

This leaves corporate buybacks as the sole driver of stocks. But now that is ending.

Announced buybacks plunged 34% in 1Q16. This is the single largest plunge in announcements since 2009.

GPC51716

Now, this does not mean buybacks are drying up all at once. As you can see in the chart above, there were a record number of buybacks announced in 2015. Those plans are beginning to be implemented.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

So there will be a significant degree of corporate buybacks going forward.

However, buyback announcements and actual purchases are not the same thing. Many times companies announce buyback programs that they later fail to complete. So the buying power here is much less than most realize.

Meanwhile, earnings are collapsing, while stocks remain near all-time highs.

sc

Either earnings need to erupt higher in the next few months (highly unlikely given lack of growth) or stocks need to drop at a minimum 20%.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Retail Collapse Signals the “Recovery” is Officially Dead

The “recovery” is over, at least as far as retail is concerned.

The retail ETF (XRT) has taken out its bull market trendline dating back to the 2009 bottom.

sc

Even more than this, XRT has not only taken out its trendline, but it has since failed to reclaim former support. Instead we’ve had a dead cat bounce resulting in a “kiss” of former support, before rolling over again.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 172% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

sc-1

This indicates that what was support is now resistance. Momentum has broken completely and we’re now in a consolidation period at best and a downtrend at worst.

This comes at a time when large retailers like Kohl’s, Nordstrom and Macy’s are recording same-store-sales collapses ranging from 3.9% to 8.2%. Wal-Mart, the single largest retailer in the world, just recorded its first ever year over year sales drop.

The “recovery” is over. The US economy is heading into, if not already IN a recession. And stocks are poised for a Crash that will be at least on par with what hit in 2008.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
The Fed Is Finally Coming Clean About Inflation

The Fed Is Finally Coming Clean About Inflation

For years the Fed has been lying about inflation.

There are many methods of doing this, but the simplest was to use a “measure” of inflation that did not actually measure inflation at all.

This is the famous Consumer Price Index of CPI. It is meant to measure inflation, but ignores obvious costs of living items like food and energy usage.

Why lie about inflation?

Two main reasons:

  1. Doing so allows the Fed and others to overstate economic growth in the US.
  2. Doing so allows the Fed to hide the fact that living standards have been in sharp decline in the US for decades.

Regarding #1, all GDP growth estimates include an inflation component. If GDP grows 10%, and inflation also rises 10%, then REAL GDP growth was zero.

But what if GDP growth was 10%, inflation was 10%, but you claim inflation was just 6%.

Poof! You’ve got a great GDP growth number of 4% to produce in the media. Also, this supports your claims that your policies are working.

The US has been doing this for years. But it’s gotten increasingly worse.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 366% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

Which brings us to #2…

Living standards have been in decline in the US for decades. By some measures, incomes peaked in the early ‘70s and have declined by almost 40% since then.

Rather than spout off a bunch of detailed metrics to support this, let’s use common sense: in the ‘60s and before, most families lived comfortably off of one working parent. Today more often than not both parents work and can barely scrape by.

By lying about inflation, the Fed and others are able to hide the fact that it is getting harder and harder to get by in the US. This supports the BIG LIE, that the Fed and its monetary policies have been a net positive for the US.

They have not.

However, cracks are beginning to emerge in the Big Lie.

More and more members of the media are beginning to note that the Fed has an incredibly terrible record of forecasting growth. This has lead to increased scrutiny of the Fed’s policies and methods for forecasting.

Which is FINALLY leading to some disclosures about how the Fed measures inflation.

The precision of the forecasts, or lack thereof, needs to be kept in mind when setting monetary policy. We must be forward looking, which means we must rely on models to forecast inflation, but there is no one model that forecasts with much accuracy. The best we can do in this situation is to recognize that there is uncertainty around our forecasts.

Despite the central role inflation expectations play in our theories of inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission, there is still much we don’t know about how such expectations are formed or even whose expectations matter for forecasting inflation and setting monetary policy.

https://clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/speeches/sp-20160512-recent-inflation-developments-and-challenges-for-research-and-monetary-policymaking.aspx

Here is the Cleveland Fed President admitting in “Fed speak” that the Fed’s forecasts, particularly regarding inflation, are bogus.

The Fed is run by money printers. They cannot generate growth, they can only depreciate the US Dollar to create inflation.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 81 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

81 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation

Is a Cash Ban and Carry Tax Coming to the US?

Europe has banned the use of €500 bills.

The reason?

They claim these bills are used in money laundering and for drugs. And if you believe that is the concern, you probably believe the earth is flat.

The fact of the matter is that Europe is now the center for misguided Central Planning for monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi has cut interest rates not once, not twice, not even thrice, but FOUR times into NIRP.

The end result has been two items:

  • A barely noticeable blip in EU inflation and GDP growth (the former has already rolled over while the latter began to move up even before NIRP)

GPC5-5-16

  • Savers and investors to begin to hoard cash rather than go out and spend it or even better (according to Draghi’s thinking) take out loans and spend them too.

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The Single Best Options Trading Service on the Planet

THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 366% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

NIRP is highly DE-flationary. It is a current tax on capital as well as a future tax on interest income payments. NIRP, in a vulgar fashion, is telling you that you are “screwed” no matter what you do.

Even a basic understanding of human nature suggests that the natural reaction to this is to panic and begin hoard cashing. If you KNOW that the bank is going to charge you for having a deposit, why not take the money out of the bank and put it in a safe where it won’t be charged?

This, not drug money and certainly not money laundering, is why the EU decided to ban €500 bills: to stop people from taking their money out of the banks.

After all, if you’re moving €20,000 or more into cash, you don’t want small denominated bills. It’s much too large a pile to comfortably move around.

This is just one weapon in the growing War on Cash.

If you think this sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory, consider that France has banned any transaction over €1,000 Euros from using physical cash. Spain has already banned transactions over €2,500. Uruguay has banned transactions over $5,000. And on and on.

The next step, if this fails, will be to implement a carry tax on actual physical cash.

The idea here is that since it costs relatively little to store physical cash (the cost of buying a safe), Governments should be permitted to “tax” physical cash to force cash holders to spend it (put it back into the banking system) or invest it.

The way this would work is that the cash would have some kind of magnetic strip that would record the date that it was withdrawn. Whenever the bill was finally deposited in a bank again, the receiving bank would use this data to deduct a certain percentage of the bill’s value as a “tax” for holding it.

For instance, if the rate was 5% per month and you took out a €100 bill for two months and then deposited it, the receiving bank would only register the bill as being worth €90.25 (€100* 0.95=€95 or the first month, and then €95 *0.95= €90.25 for the second month).

It sounds like absolute insanity, but I can assure you that Central Banks take these sorts of proposals very seriously.

This includes the Fed… which has already begun discussing NIRP and Helicopter Money in policy meetings.

Indeed, we’ve uncovered a secret document written by a strategic advisor to multiple Central Banks, which lays out ALL of the above plans.

The paper, written before the 2008 Crisis, suggests that IF a Crisis were to hit and ZIRP didn’t result in a recovery, Central Banks should:

  • Buy assets (QE)
  • Begin money transfers (the so called “Helicopter money” policy)
  • Implement a carry tax or ban physical cash.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 80 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

80 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Next 2008 Event Is Lurching Towards Us

As we noted yesterday, the ECB cannot and will not be able to generate GDP growth or inflation.

The EU is simply too leveraged. You cannot have an entire region sporting a Debt to GDP of over 90%… with banks leveraged at 26 to 1 using sovereign debt as collateral on their derivatives trades, and “fix it” using NIRP or QE.

This is like trying to hold up a 400 lb. weight… and then having someone offer you a floor lamp as additional support. The effect, at best, is largely psychological.

Cue today…

The European Commission told the euro area’s largest economies to reduce debt and modernize labor markets as it again slashed its inflation forecast and warned of slower-than-predicted growth across the 19-nation bloc.

France, Spain and Italy, which have persistently failed to hit European Union budget targets, are still off track, the Brussels-based commission said on Tuesday. Gross domestic product in the currency area will increase by 1.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2017 — both 0.1 percentage point lower than the commission forecast in February. Inflation will average 0.2 percent this year, below the European Central Bank’s target.

            Source: Bloomberg.

So… even after expanding the pace of its QE purchases from €60 billion to €80 billion per month, the ECB expects inflation to be 0.2%.

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Bear in mind, the ECB has been overestimating growth and inflation for four years straight. The notion that inflation will hit 0.2% might be misguided.

The fact of the matter is that nothing in the EU has been fixed. All that happened was the markets bought into Mario Draghi’s fib that he’d do “whatever it takes… and believe me it will be enough.”

This is perhaps the single greatest metaphor for everything post-2008: a Central Banker claiming the impossible and the entire world believing it. Meanwhile no structural issues have been addressed, no deleveraging has taken place, and trillions of Dollars have been misallocated based on Central Banks skewing the risk profile of the world by trying to corner the bond market.

How will this end? Terribly. Bonds are the bedrock of the entire financial system. Currently over $7 trillion in sovereign bonds are sporting NEGATIVE yields. It is absolute insanity.

Eventually this will trigger another 2008 type event. The derivatives market for interest rates is over $500 trillion in size. By way of comparison, the Credit Default Swap market, which nearly took down the system in 2008, was just $50-60 trillion in size.

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 80 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

80 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

A Few Facts About Gold That Nay-Sayers Conveniently Ignore

We continue to see articles by so called “experts” trashing Gold and Silver as investments. Gold is everything from a “Pet Rock” to a “Dumb Investment” or “Barbarous Relic.”

Do these people even bother doing research? Or are they just stock shills?

First and foremost, you cannot compare Gold’s performance relative to stocks anywhere before 1967.

Why?

Because Gold was pegged to currencies up until that point. Any comparison of Gold’s performance relative to other asset classes prior to 1967 is completely misleading because Gold’s performance was limited by currency pegging.

However, once began to be de-pegged in 1967, the story changes.

As Bill King notes, Gold’s performance has absolutely DEMOLISHED that of stocks post 1967. The below chart normalizes both asset classes.

As you can see, even with Gold having lost nearly 40% of its value since 2011, and stocks soaring to all time highs over 2,100 on the S&P 500, the comparison isn’t even close.

GOLD-67

This outperformance has continued recently despite the Fed juicing the market at every turn.

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THE CRISIS TRADER has produced an astounding 366% return on invested capital thus far in 2016.

We have a success rate of 72% meaning we make money on more than seven out of 10 trades. And thanks to careful risk management we’ve seen triple digit returns on invested capital every year since inception.

Our next trade goes out this morning… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30-day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

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Between the year 2000 and today, stocks have been in two of the biggest stock bubbles in history. Over this time period the Fed has done almost nothing but prop stocks up by printing money or maintaining interest rates far below where they should be.

And yet, Gold has once again CRUSHED stocks’ performance. Again, the comparison isn’t even close (and that includes Gold’s terrible performance from 2011 onwards).

GOLD-67

Despite these two facts, you rarely if ever see pro-Gold articles appear in the media.

It’s odd… for an asset class that less than 1% of investors actually own, “reporters” and “analysts” sure spend an awful lot of trashing it. How come they don’t spend an equal amount of time trashing uranium or other under-owned asset? Why spend so much time focusing on an asset that so few people even own?

Probably because:

  • Gold doesn’t generate any revenue for financial institutions (brokers, investment managers, etc.)
  • Gold doesn’t benefit the banks, as you can store it if your own safe.
  • Gold and its performance run counter to the view that you can generate wealth via money printing.

At the end of the day, buying Gold represents pulling your money from the financial system… which is the last thing the Fed wants anyone to do.

Meanwhile, as Central Banks turn up the printing presses again, Gold is once again beginning to show signs of life, turning upwards against all major currencies.

gpc5216

We believe the next leg up is about to begin for Gold. Those who remember form the last Gold bull market in the ‘70s, it was the second leg of Gold’s bull market that saw the most gains.

From 1970 to 1974, Gold rose 550%. It then took two-year breather before beginning its second, much larger leg up. During that second leg, it rose over 900% in value.

If Gold were to stage a similar move now, it would rise to over $10,000 per ounce.

On that note…

We’re currently preparing for a similar situation today.

Indeed,  subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter just closed out THREE more winners last week: gains of 10%, 12% and 15% produced in just a few weeks’ time.

This brings our winning trade streak to 80 straight winning trades.

Indeed, we haven’t closed a single loser since November 2014.

80 straight winners… and not one closed loser… in 18 months.

However, I cannot maintain this kind of track record with thousands of investors following our recommendations.

So we are going to be raising the price on a Private Wealth Advisory subscription from $199 to $249 at the end of the month.

However, you can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days today, for just 98 cents.

If you find that Private Wealth Advisory is not for you, just drop us a line and you won’t be charged another cent.

To take out a 30 day trial to Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 cents…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Our FREE e-letter: http://gainspainscapital.com/

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/GainsPainsCapit

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market