Disclaimer: none of the following is meant to be political analysis. I am not endorsing nor disparaging any candidate. I’m simply outlining the facts pertaining to the U.S. Presidential election.
I want to warn you that the next few months in the U.S. will be extremely ugly.
The country was already deeply divided before this election. And unfortunately, it’s only going to get worse. The fact is that Joe Biden HASN’T actually won this election yet.
That is not a typo. The media has done the U.S. a great disservice by claiming that Biden is the winner this early in the game.
Everyone needs to take a step back and understand how the actual election process occurs based on federal law, not media reporting.
1) The election occurs in early November.
2) Votes are tallied while officials from both parties (Democrat and GOP) are present.
3) Provided officials from both parties are present during the vote tallies and there are:
- No credible accusations of fraud.
- No software glitches.
Then the vote tallies are ratified.
4) If the vote margin between winner and loser is 0.5% or smaller, an automatic recount is required.
5) If the margin between the winner and loser is larger than 0.5%, but either candidate (or a 3rd candidate for that matter) wants to dispute the results, he or she can pay to have a recount performed. The cost if roughly $3 million per state.
6) Once the recount is completed, or if a recount is not necessary, the individual states formally declare the winner on December 14th when they officially cast their electoral college votes for him or her.
7) Then, in early January of the next year, the new congress meets to count the electoral college votes and formally declare the winner.
8) The new President is sworn into office on January 20th.
This is how Presidential elections work in the U.S. under normal circumstances.
The media cannot decide who wins. The media can simply project who they think will win based on vote totals at a given time. And unless the loser formally concedes prior to December 14th, the election remains in play.
So where are we in terms of the 2020 Presidential election?
For starters, the races in multiple states (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona) are close enough to require mandatory recounts (within a margin of 0.5%).
On top of this, the Trump administration will be filing lawsuits in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona alleging fraud, illegitimate votes being counted, and GOP officials being barred from witnessing the ballots being tallied.
Whether or not the Trump administration is right about this remains to be seen.
However, the fact lawsuits are being filed means the election will move into the courts. If the courts decide that the evidence the Trump administration presents is compelling, they can require a formal vote audit.
If, during the vote audit, actual fraud is discovered, the court can rule that those votes are no longer valid, the formal vote counts can change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.
Even if fraud is not discovered by the audits, but there is a particular problem with vote cards (the wrong type of ink was used, the hole punch didn’t go all the way through the ballot as was the case in Florida in 2000, etc.), the courts can deem those problematic votes as illegitimate.
This again can mean the formal vote counts can change, and it is possible that a given state ends up declaring a different winner.
Mind you, that’s if the courts resolve the issue to everyone’s liking on the first go round.
If either party or candidate is dissatisfied with a lower court’s ruling, they can appeal the ruling, which can result in the lawsuit moving up to a higher court, eventually reaching the Supreme Court, which serves as the ultimate arbiter of election law in the U.S.
This was the case with the 2000 election, when the Supreme Court ruled that vote cards from Florida that didn’t have clean hole punches were NOT valid, which gave the state to George W. Bush and resulted in Al Gore conceding the election on December 13th.
None of the above items are conspiracy theory or wishful thinking. These are the actual facts of how Presidential elections are decided in the U.S.
The media doesn’t decide elections. And technically, Joe Biden is NOT the President elect, no matter how much certain people might want him to be.
Remember, he wouldn’t be formally declared the President Elect until December 14th 2020, and that’s under normal circumstances.
And as I mentioned already, this election is anything but normal.
I mention all of this to help you keep a clear head during what is going to be an extremely stressful and psychologically draining four-week period between now and that date.
Again, this election WILL not be decided before December 14th. And it’s possible things run even longer than that.
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research