Phoenix Capital Research

Four Major Warning Signs Investors Should Not Ignore

The market is beyond overstretched at this point on a short-term, intermediate term, and long-term basis. The sheer number of warning signals is staggering.

The blow off top out of the rising wedge pattern we noted before is rolling over indicating this is likely a false breakout:

The Russell 2000 is lagging well behind the S&P 500. Small caps, in general, should lead a rally if it’s going to prove legit:

China, which has lead the S&P 500 in general since the 2009 bottom peaked months ago:

Copper, which serves as an excellent proxy for the global economy, is collapsing, showing that this rally in stocks is occurring while the global economy gets weaker and weaker.

Investors take note, the market may be hitting new highs thanks to traders’ games, but the real economy is contracting sharply. This is precisely what happened during the market peaks before the Tech Crash and the 2008 Collapse.

We are getting precisely the same warnings this time around.

If you are not already preparing for a potential market collapse, now is the time to be doing so.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Are We Heading Into a 2008 Style Economic Implosion?

The media is jumping for joy over last week’s US jobs numbers. But beneath the veneer of headline numbers lies a truly horrible economic reality.

Let’s have a look at the two key economies for the world: China and the US.

For starters, China’s recent economic data, as massaged as it is to the upside, is downright awful. China’s PMI numbers were the worst in two years. Staffing levels in the Chinese service sector decreased for the first time since January 2009 (remember that year).

China’s LEI also shows no sign of recovery. If anything, it indicates China is heading towards an economic slowdown on par with that of 2008. And if you account for the rampant debt fueling China’s economy you could easily argue that China is posting 0% GDP growth today.

In the US, last week’s jobs report didn’t look too bad until you dug deeper into the report and found that the average workweek declined by 0.2 hours from March- April.

So what you may ask… 0.2 hours? Just under a 15 minutes per week?

The issue here is that if you apply this drop to the total number of people employed in the private sector, this is the equivalent of over 21 million work hours being lost in one month.

That is the single biggest drop since April of 2009 when the US economy was absolutely imploding. It’s the numerical equivalent of firing 718,000+ people.

This is how companies deal with economic contractions. They don’t start laying people off en masse… they start cutting work hours bit by bit. The mass layoffs don’t come until the official numbers announce that we’re in a full-blown recession.

The first stage of this is already happening. 99% of investors fail to see it, but the clear signs are there.

Investors take note, the market may be hitting new highs thanks to traders’ games, but the real economy is contracting sharply. This is precisely what happened during the market peaks before the Tech Crash and the 2008 Collapse.

We are getting precisely the same warnings this time around.

If you are not already preparing for a potential market collapse, now is the time to be doing so.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

QE Has Been and Will Be a Complete and Utter Failure

The Fed is now blaming Congress for the failures of its QE policies.

This is to be expected, given that no one in the power elite ever accepts responsibility for their own failures. Congressional members blames each other (depending on which party they’re in), the Fed blames Congress, the White House blames the GOP, and on and on.

Behind this façade of bickering is the total and complete failure of the Fed’s policies to generate economic growth OR jobs. Regarding #1, the US has not had a single year of 3% GDP growth since Bernanke became Fed Chairman. End of story.

As for QE… there is not one single example in history in which QE has successfully created jobs. The UK has engaged in QE equal to over 20% of its GDP and hasn’t seen a real recovery in employment. Similarly, Japan has employed QE equal to nearly 25% of its GDP and GDP growth continues to slow while unemployment stays elevated.

As for the US, the Fed has spent roughly $2 trillion in the last year via QE. During that time a little over, 500,000 jobs were created… So the Fed is spending roughly half a MILLION dollars to create each job.

There’s a word for this… it’s pathetic. Actually “insane” would be a better choice. This is what happens when you put Central Planners who have little if any real world experience, in charge of an economy. You spend millions of dollars to create low paying jobs.

And the Fed’s argument is to keep doing this until unemployment falls.

The fact that the Fed continues to engage in QE despite its clear failure to create jobs indicates the Fed literally is either totally clueless OR is engaging in QE for other reasons.

My view… it’s a bit of both. The Fed is largely comprised of academics like Bernanke who have little if any experience in banking (interesting that he’s in charge of the Central bank since he NEVER worked in a bank in his life) or the private sector.

Indeed, even the pro-Wall Street crowd at the Fed (Dudley and Evans) don’t see how their policies are crushing the banking sector. Citigroup plans to lay off 11,000. JP Morgan is laying off 14,000. Morgan Stanley is laying off 1,600.

And yet the Evans and Dudley keep asking for more QE!

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world. Companies based on the real economy are dropping hard. And it’s clear the Fed doesn’t know how to get things back on track.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Is Bernanke Preparing to Jump Ship?

The Fed meets today and tomorrow. The ECB meets on Thursday. Those will be the defining market forces for the next three trading sessions.

There is little if any point in trying to trade this week (at least until Thursday). The Fed is notorious for leaking info to the well-connected. The most recent “accidental” sending of a report a day early is just the latest example.

In simple terms, the market will be even more of an insider’s game today and tomorrow than usual. No point trying to open a new position in that window.

However, against this backdrop the big picture for the markets is growing worse and worse.

The US is almost assuredly back in recessionary territory. This is coming on the back of the weakest recovery (if you can call it that) in post-WWII history.

The Feds hide this economic nightmare by simply not counting those who are unemployed (lower the denominator in the fraction and your unemployment ratio falls), and by using bogus deflators in their GDP growth numbers (the current CPI is 2.1%… but the Feds calculated the first quarter GDP growth numbers use an inflationary measure of 1.2%).

Change your measurements and BOOM you’ve got a recovery. It works if you’re a Government bean counter trying to keep your job. It doesn’t work so well for everyone else.

However, there are clear signs we’re heading back into recessionary territory. I think the first quarter 2013 GDP growth print is the best we’ll see all year. And it’s very possibly things will get ugly before the year ends.

Speaking of which…

Ben Bernanke has announced he won’t be attending this year’s Jackson Hole meeting. A Jackson Hole meeting without the Fed Chairman is like having a performance of Hamlet without Hamlet himself in it. Why would the single most important Central Banker not attend one of the biggest economic meetings of the year?

He claims it’s due to scheduling conflicts. As if he didn’t know about this meeting in advance.

The fact is Bernanke is likely going to step down at the end of this term in January 2014… which means the markets will be losing one of their biggest props, the famed Bernanke Put.

God help whoever fills the role in the future. Assuming things hold together until next year (a BIG assumption) the new Fed Chairman will be inheriting one of the worst messes in history.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world. Companies based on the real economy are dropping hard.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

These Three Economic Bellweathers Signify Danger Lies Ahead

The markets are holding up based on hope for more stimulus from the Fed and ECB this week (Fed FOMC is Tuesday and Wednesday, the ECB meeting is on Thursday).

This is a very dangerous environment. We are entering the seasonal period in which stocks typically do poorly (May-November). Earnings guidance is falling. And even the massaged GDP number for 1Q13 was lower than expected.

In simple terms, we are getting multiple signs that the economy is slowing and heading towards recessionary territory. This is happening at the precise time that stocks are holding up on hopes of more stimulus.

The rising bearish wedge pattern in the S&P 500 that we noted last week remains in play. It should be resolved this week. However, multiple economic bellweathers are already warning DANGER DANGER!

Below is a price performance chart for the S&P 500 against Fed EX (postage and shipping), Arcelor Mittal (steel), and Caterpillar (machinery). As you can see, the real economy is falling. But stocks keep holding up.

We’ve seen this kind of divergence between stocks and the economy before in 2008. We all know how that ended.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world. Companies based on the real economy are dropping hard.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Best Economic Analyst on the Planet Calls BS on the Recovery

For the last four years, the financial world has traded largely based on hope of more intervention from Central Banks.

That was and is the single driving factor of the markets. Good news was good news (it’s a recovery!) but bad news was even better (the Fed will have to print more money!) as far as stocks were concerned.

However, against this backdrop several issues began to develop. The single most important one was Copper, which has a great record of anticipating real economic growth:

Note that Copper signified an end to the economic “recovery” story back in 2011. Since that time, it’s been in decline. In fact, it’s just taken out its “recovery’ trendline dating back to 2009.

This signifies that the world economy is slowing. It tells us point blank that things are not well in the world.

Just as importantly, it shows that the claims that QE and Central Bank money printing generate real economic growth are false.

Copper can’t fudge statistics to meet political agendas. It doesn’t lie under oath. It moves based on supply and demand. And demand has been falling since 2011.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world. Copper is forecasting a nasty summer.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The One Trendline To Watch For Gold

Since 2011, the Fed and other global Central Banks have injected over $2 trillion into the financial system. They’ve also announced plans to continue pumping money ad infinitum.

And yet for the period from 2011 until two weeks ago Gold, the inflation hedge of choice for investors, hasn’t done much of anything.

Why is this?

Part of it has to do with simple sentiment. Gold was overextended in 2011, stretched far away from its primary trendline:

On top of this, investors had gone too carried away on expectations of more Fed liquidity. QE 2, which was announced November 2010, was a mere $600 billion (not much compared to the Fed’s current programs which will extend forever). But yet Gold rose like a rocket ship starting in August when the Fed first hinted at QE 2.

Which brings us to today. This excessive enthusiasm needed to cool and Gold has done just that for the last two years. Then the Gold Crash happened and were right back at the long-term trendline.

The is the key area to watch. If Gold continues to correct, then we could go to $1200. But Gold should hold up here.

On that note, I’ve just notified subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter to five small cap gold plays all of which are trading just above their cash levels.

Put another way, at these valuations, you’re almost getting their gold reserves and mining equipment for FREE. Talk about a cheap deal!

As I write this, all five of them are UP in a big way. One has already soared 4% today alone!

To find out what they are, all you have to do is take out a trial subscription to my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter. You’ll immediately be given access to my Special Update on these gold plays… as well as FIVE Special Reports outlining some of the biggest risks to the financial system.

These include…

The “C” Word: the Dark Secret the Fed Wants Hidden

The Inflation Secrets Your Broker Won’t Tell You About

Protect Your Family

Protect Your Savings

Protect Your Portfolio

To take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

Click Here Now!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Are Stocks Heading the Same Way Gold Did?

The markets rallied hard yesterday, thanks to promises of more from Europe. However, the global economy is once again contracting with the bad data coming out of both China and Germany: two of the biggest exporters in the world.

With that in mind, the S&P 500 looks as though its initial jump to the upside from its rising wedge pattern could have been a false breakout: a move was not sustained. These developments are usually followed by VIOLENT swings in the opposite direction.

Indeed, Gold showed us how these developments work.  In mid-2012, it broke upwards from a falling wedge. A lot of traders, myself included, thought this would indicate new highs were on the horizon.

Instead, Gold languished and the breakout proved to be false. And when the reversal came, it was VIOLENT:

Investors take note, a false breakout is an extremely dangerous thing. If the stock market is in fact failing to maintain its upward breakout, we could see a sharp reversal similar to that of Gold (Gold has lead stocks for much of the post-2008 period).

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Why the Market Moved Today and What’s Next

Europe is leading the world higher today on two items:

 1)   EU President Barroso stating that there are limits to austerity.

2)   Spain’s Prime Minister Rajoy agreeing with Angela Merkel that nations must cede sovereignty if Europe is to last.

The first of these issues is just political grandstanding. Europe’s problems are not related to whether or not EU politicians pursue austerity or growth policies; they are related to EU bank solvency and demographics.

Europe, at its core, is a 17+ country union in which aging populations, all promised large social and welfare payments at retirement, are lining up to cash their checks at the very moment in which a massive real estate bubble collapses and threatens to take down their banking systems.

Having run up tabs that it cannot possibly hope to meet (both on a personal and a national level) Europe is now playing around with ideas like growth and austerity as though EU politicians can simply pull various levers on a macro levels and the EU economy will start roaring again.

The fact of the matter is that the only way Europe could resolve its issues would be if it started running real surpluses and seeing massive GDP growth of 3+ per year for at least five years.

That would be growth. But the chances of Europe doing that are less than 1%.

As for #2, Rajoy isn’t saying anything new or meaningful. Ceding sovereignty won’t solve Europe’s problems. Germany doesn’t have the funds to hold the union together (even if it wanted to).

Germany is already sporting a Debt to GDP of 81%. When you include unfunded liabilities its over 200%. The country’s export driven economy is at risk due to a global economic slowdown. And if things should get ugly globally, Germany will be in no position to hold Europe together.

All in all, the markets are falling for the same ploy they’ve fallen for dozens of times in the last few months: more political promises from those who cannot and will not do what is needed to solve the region’s problems.

How long this latest pop lasts remains to be seen. But the clear signals are already in place that the global economy is slowing once again. And now amount of political posturing will solve that.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

What the Gold Crash Means For Investors

The mainstream media is rife with investment “experts” who missed the 10- year bull market in Gold and Silver. These guys are now high fiving about Gold’s drop, like they’re geniuses for avoiding precious metals in the past.

Gold doesn’t produce cash flows or pay a dividend, it the manta for these folks. Too bad for them Gold has outperformed stocks on both a 10 year AND a 50 year basis. There are of course exceptions to this in the form of investing geniuses who use compounding to crush the markets… but given that most money managers don’t beat the market and Gold does… one has to ponder these things.

Sure, Gold doesn’t pay a dividend… but it doesn’t charge commissions, tell you to buy a garbage stock, back date options with its executive board, or commit accounting fraud either.

Gold doesn’t go out of business. It doesn’t get insider information and use it against you. Gold doesn’t make money taking the other side of your trades. It doesn’t front-run your stock orders.

Gold also doesn’t create artificial bids in the market. It doesn’t cause flash crashes. Gold doesn’t use your funds to bail itself out and then parade around fundraising for politicians.

Gold doesn’t blow stock bubbles. It doesn’t manipulate data. Gold doesn’t control interest rates to benefit the big banks at the expense of everyone else. Gold doesn’t lie under oath, nor does it channel the public’s money into foreign banks.

Also, you cannot print Gold. Gold doesn’t violate property rights laws or steal your deposits. Indeed, Gold is essentially one of the few forms of investments that gets your capital OUT of Central banker hands.

One wonders how things would go for Cyprus individuals who had their deposits in Gold in their own custody as opposed to sitting in the award winning Cyprus banks.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

What Are European Markets Telling Us About the State of the EU Crisis?

If you happened to simply glance over the headlines in the financial media over the last few months, you’d think the European Crisis was over.

In November, no less than France’s Prime Minister, Spain’s Prime Minister, and even Germany’s Finance Minister suggested that the worst is over for the Euro Crisis or that the Crisis as a whole was over completely.

Unfortunately for them, the markets don’t seem to agree. Indeed, EU markets have all topped or are in the process of topping and forming downtrends.

Italy stopped being in an uptrend months ago and is now in danger of taking out major support:

The same goes for Spain’s Ibex:

Even Germany’s stock market, the DAX, is breaking down in a big way.

What gives? Isn’t Europe doing great? Didn’t Mario Draghi promise to do everything he could to save the Euro?

Obviously European financials didn’t get the memo.

In the end, a Central Banker’s promise doesn’t have the binding power to hold together a $46 trillion banking system together… especially when that banking system is leveraged at 26 to 1.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world. Europe’s markets are forecasting a nasty summer.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Germany Just Took Out Its “Recovery” Trendline

More signs of trouble.

We’ve been told countless times that Europe was “fixed.” The problem with this is that the market is beginning to realize this is not true.

Much of the European recovery counts on Germany. The ECB owns the printing presses… but without Germany’s support, the Euro is done for.

However Germans are only going to be supportive of the Euro up to a point. That point is when the German economy contracts enough that Germany has its own problems to deal with, rather than focusing on Europe’s.

That point appears to be approaching. Germany’s economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2012. The country has since seen its credit rating downgraded to A from A+ by Egan Jones.

The German stock market, the DAX, has officially taken out its trendline from the June 2012 low when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promised “unlimited bond buying” to support Europe.

This is bad news for the rest of Europe. With Angela Merkel seeking re-election in September this year, Germany will be less likely to OK any more bailouts.

Europe better pray nothing goes wrong between now and then.

Watch the DAX and the Spanish Ibex. Spain as noted in Monday’s market commentary is the European canary in the coalmine. If it starts to drop… and the German DAX follows… then the contagion is back.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Three Key Market Signals Investors Are Ignoring

The markets moved higher yesterday because frankly Tuesday is the day for upside moves: thus far in 2013, we’ve had 13 straight Tuesday gains. This, combined with the very short-term oversold basis of several markets, mainly Gold and commodities, gave the “risk on” trade a bump.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is in danger of breaking several critical trendlines:

The rising wedge pattern is a consolidation pattern that can break either up or down. One of the trickiest issues is a “false breakout,” which occurs when the initial move out the pattern proves to be short-lived. False breakouts are usually followed by violent moves in the opposite direction as traders realize the initial move was false.

In today’s market, that direction would be down.

We get additional signs of trouble from Spain. It was Spain that nearly took down Europe last year. In this sense, the Spanish stock market, the Ibex, has become the proverbial “canary in the coalmine” for Europe. If the Ibex is rallying, investors believe Europe is alright. If the Ibex breaks down, then the European Crisis is back.

The Ibex has stalled and is in danger of breaking critical support:

Final indications of trouble come from earnings. We’ve had a slew of corporations beating earnings guidance (which isn’t too difficult given how easy it is to manipulate profits) but missing revenues.

Coke, Goldman Sachs, Yahoo! all did this yesterday. They join Blackberry, US Bancorp, St Jude Medical and others.

Revenues are much harder to fudge than profits. They are more closely tied to the economy. So if revenues are missing estimates, it can be a warning that the economy is slowing.

Investors take note, the markets are sending multiple signals that things are not going well in the world.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Is Bernanke’s Worst Nightmare Just Around the Corner?

First off I want to say that all of us here at Phoenix Capital Research are sending our prayers to the victims of the Boston Terror Attacks. We sincerely hope none of you, our readers, or your loved ones were injured or harmed by these events.

The markets today are snapping back from yesterday’s sharp drop. However, in the bigger picture we believe that Ben Bernanke must be terrified.

The Fed and other Central banks of the world have done their darnedest to inflate away the debts of the developed world. These folks wanted more than anything to create inflation… because it meant it was easier to service their debt loads provided interest rates stayed low.

It is beginning to look like they failed. The Fed has announced QE 3 and QE 4, the Bank of Japan just announced a $1.2 trillion stimulus, the European Central Bank has promised unlimited bond buying… and yet deflation looks to be rearing its head again.

Copper has taken out its “recovery’ trendline.

Oil is breaking down:

So is Gold:

These are all signs of rising deflation. If deflation IS back then Bernanke’s efforts to create inflation will have failed. IF this is the case, the Fed is literally out of bullets.

Investors take note, the global economy appears to be contracting again. China’s recent GDP miss is the just the latest in a series of economic surprises to the downside.

And stocks are always the last asset class to realize this.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for more carnage in the markets… having just seen another SIX trade winning streak…

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Gold Crashes and Japan Sinks

Good Morning Investors

Gold is crashing this morning, falling over $90 to $1413 per ounce.

This move is looking to be largely based on institutional liquidation in Asia where Japanese bonds are being sold.

The Bank of Japan announced a massive $1.2 trillion QE effort on April 6. The move was lunacy given that Japan has already announced QE equal to over 20% of its GDP in the preceding years and GDP growth was still slowing.

According to Central Banker thinking, if something doesn’t work for 20 years the only answer is to do even more of it. So the Bank of Japan attempted a “shock and awe” move with an unprecedented QE equal to $1.2 trillion. Japanese bonds, already strained as investments by the demographic and economic issues plaguing Japan, have since become extremely volatile.

With this in mind, the move in Gold looks to be several large institutions liquidating positions to meet margin calls or redemptions due to the plunge in Japanese bonds. The technical damage to Gold has been severe.

Another factor here is the slowdown in China. The post-2009 “recovery” has largely been driven by China’s growth. The People’s Republic reported GDP growth of 7.7% on expectations of 8% last week. This, combined with misses in retail and industrial production, doesn’t bode well for the global economy.

On that note, now is the time to be preparing for a potential bloodbath in the markets. Just looking around the globe we see China’s economy slowing, Japan’s bond bubble bursting, Gold crashing, and more.

I’ve been warning subscribers of my Private Wealth Advisory that we were heading for a dark period in the markets. I’ve outlined precisely how this will play out as well as which investments will profit from another bout of Deflation.

As I write this, all of them are SOARING.

Are you ready for another Collapse in the markets? Could your portfolio stomach another Crash? If not, take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory and start protecting your hard earned wealth today!

We produced 72 straight winning trades (and not a SINGLE LOSER) during the first round of the EU Crisis. We’re now preparing for Japan’s onslaught.

To join us…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Why Lie About Inflation? Because It Covers Up Bigger Lies

More and more analysts are catching on to the fact that Government measures of inflation are phony. The US Government tells us that inflation, as measured by the CPI, is 0.8%. This is largely a work of fiction however as the actual cost of goods purchased by consumers has increased.

The US Government hides this fact by changing the CPI regularly to underplay the threat of inflation. One of the most famous examples is the decision to drop food and energy prices from directly impacting the CPI via a gimmick called “hedonic adjustments.”  In simple terms, if food or gas prices jump 100%, the CPI won’t rise anywhere near that much.

The CPI rigging goes much further than this.  The CPI also adjusts how it measures the price of homes and rents. So if home prices or rent prices jump substantially, the jump won’t show up in the CPI.

By way of example, think back to the summer of 2008. At that time, the price of gasoline was at an all time high with Oil priced at nearly $150 per barrel. Food prices were approaching records. And home prices were only 10% off their all-time highs.

At that time, the official reading for CPI was 4%. The US Government claimed that with gas, food and housing prices (the most basic essentials) all at or near all time highs, that inflation was just 4%.

Why do this?

Because by downplaying inflation you can overstate growth. All economic growth in the US accounts for inflation via a “deflator” measure. If GDP grows 3% and inflation was 2%, then real growth was 1% in very very simple terms.

By using a low CPI deflator, the Government can overstate growth dramatically. A great example is the fourth quarter GDP growth measure for 2012 which, if using an accurate inflation measure, would have registered over NEGATIVE 1%.

However, by using a phony deflator measure, the US got away with a 0.4% growth rate. And the media could proclaim that things are still positive, albeit not as positive as they were in the third quarter.

This is yet another reason why Governments and Central bankers will always downplay inflation. It’s also why you’ll never hear a Central banker warn that inflation is a problem.

However, by any reasonable measure, real inflation today is closer to 6%. Stocks love inflation at first, until their costs start to increase dramatically. At that point inflation is a REAL KILLER for profits. This doesn’t mean stocks can’t soar (see Zimbabwe’s stock market returns) but it does mean you’re not getting any richer from them.

If you’re looking to stay more informed about the markets and global economy… and get an expert understanding of why things are moving the way they are… we suggest our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory…

Click Here Now

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold?

Anyone who wants to get to the truth behind the inflationary threats to their wealth should ignore everything the Central Banks say about inflation and look instead at their actions.

Worldwide gold demand in 2012 was another record high of $236.4 billion in the World Gold Council’s latest report. This was up 6% in value terms in the fourth quarter to $66.2 billion, the highest fourth quarter on record. Global gold demand in the fourth quarter of 2012 was up 4% to 1,195.9 tonnes.

Central bank buying for 2012 rose by 17% over 2011 to some 534.6 tonnes. As far as central bank gold buying, this was the highest level since 1964. Central bank purchases stood at 145 tonnes in the fourth quarter. That is up 9% from the fourth quarter of 2011, and the eighth consecutive quarter in which central banks were net purchasers of gol

http://247wallst.com/2013/02/14/central-banks-buy-the-most-gold-since-1964/#ixzz2LMLOfBPK

Note… Central Banks, while talking down money printing and denying the presence of inflation, bought more Gold in 2012 that any year dating back to 1964. Indeed, However, since becoming net buyers of Gold in 2010, the Central Banks have been increasing their Gold purchases rapidly.

In 2010, Governments worldwide bought 77 tonnes of Gold. In 2011 it was 457 tonnes. And last year it was a whopping 535 tonnes. All told, they’ve accumulated  1,000 tonnes of Gold since 2Q09. At today’s price of $1600 per ounce, this stash is valued at over $56 billion.

The key issue here is not the amount ($56 billion in Gold purchases is nothing compared to the over $10 trillion in new money Central banks have printed since 2007), but the trend: Central Banks were net sellers of Gold for decades until 2010.

Other major investors are looking to get their hands on Gold… not the promise of Gold, but the actual metal.

Germany has the second largest Gold reserves in the world behind the US. Since the early ‘80s, it has stored the majority of these reserves with the NY Fed (45% vs. 13% in London, 11% in Paris and the remaining 31% in Frankfurt).

With that in mind, everyone needs to be aware that last Monday Germany’s Bundesbank announced it will be moving a major portion of its reserves from the US and all of its reserves from France back to Frankfurt.

Nearly half of Germany’s gold reserves are held in a vault at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York — billions of dollars worth of postwar geopolitical history squirreled away for safe keeping below the streets of Lower Manhattan.

Now the German central bank wants to make a big withdrawal — 300 tons in all.

On Wednesday, the Bundesbank said that it would begin moving some of the reserves, the second-largest stock in the world after that of the United States. The goal is to house more than 50 percent of German gold in Bundesbank vaults in Frankfurt by 2020, up from a little less than a third today, the bank said…

The new policy will include the complete withdrawal of 374 tons of German gold stored at the Banque de France in Paris, about 11 percent of the total. Bundesbank officials were quick to note that the decision was not a reflection of French trustworthiness. Rather, because France and Germany now share the euro, there is no need for reserves as insurance against currency crises.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/business/global/german-central-bank-to-repatriate-gold-reserves.html

This announcement came with the usual political statements that the decision had nothing to do with a lack of trust between the Bundesbank and the US Fed or Bank of France, but the message is obvious: Germany sees the writing on the wall and is moving to secure its Gold reserves.

The same goes for Texas:

Texas Republican State Representative Giovanni Capriglione authored the bill demanding state owned gold bars be returned to the Lone Star State. The legislation to pull $1 billion in gold reserves from a Federal Reserve vault in New York is supported by Governor Rick Perry.

The financial crisis in Cyprus which prompted a run on the bank and ultimately a closure of the financial institutions reportedly bolstered support for the Texas gold bar return bill. State Representative Capriglione had this to say about why he penned the bill:

“For us to have our own gold, a lot of the runs on the bank and those types of things, they happen because people are worried that there’s nothing there to back it up.”

Governor Perry stated that if Texas owns the gold, then no one else should be able to determine if the state can reclaim possession of the bars of precious metal. Representative Capriglione also noted that Texas is not interested in implementing its own gold standard. According to the Republican’s statements about the gold bars bill, he simply wants to bolster the state’s fiscally secure reputation. The Texas public servant also feels that such a solid financial persona would be beneficial in case an international of national fiscal crisis occurred.

The legislation notes the state does not merely want gold certificates from the Federal Reserve, they want the actual gold bars to store inside a planned Texas Bullion Depository. Moving $1 billion in gold bars from New York to Texas would be a huge task, one some are calling impractical. State Representative Capriglione suggested selling the gold currently housed inside the New York vault and then repurchasing the same amount in Texas.

http://www.inquisitr.com/600185/texas-wants-gold-stored-at-federal-reserve-returned-to-lone-star-state/#XHeg60ztpexhAROW.99

Investors forget that the single most important role played by Central Banks is to maintain confidence in the system. For that reason they will NEVER admit inflation is a problem. But if inflation isn’t a problem, WHY ARE CENTRAL BANKS LOADING UP ON GOLD?

Watch what they do, not what they say.

If you’re looking to stay more informed about the markets and global economy… and get an expert understanding of why things are moving the way they are… we suggest our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

To learn more about Private Wealth Advisory…

Click Here Now

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Cyprus Paved the Way For an FDIC-Approved Money Grab

As Cyprus has now shown us, when systemic collapse hits, it hits FAST and FURIOUS.

The quick timeline for Cyprus is as follows:

  • June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.
  • November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).
  • February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.
  • March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.
  • March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.
  • March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.
  • March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.
  • March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.
  • March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.
  • March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).

The most important thing I want you to focus on is the speed of these events.

Cypriot banks formally requested a bailout back in June 2012. The bailout talks took months to perform. And then the entire system came unhinged in one weekend.

One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out (more on this in a moment).

If you think this cannot happen in the US, think again. The FDIC has already proposed legislation that would allow it to TAKE CONTROL OF A BANK IT DEEMS SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT AND WRITE DOWN YOUR SAVINGS ACCOUNTS as part of the bail-in.

This power was granted in the 2010 Dodd-Frank bill, although 99% of investors are not aware of it. We’ve just drafted a Special Report outlining the precise legislation as well as the powers of Life and Death it grants the FDIC over YOUR SAVINGS.

To pick up a copy of this Special Report…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

The Secret FDIC Rule That Puts Your Savings At Risk.

What happened in Cyprus isn’t a “one off” event.

The financial media and elite have been trying to convince the world that Cyprus was a unique situation… a “one time” deal… and that our money is safe in the banks.

This is untrue.

Spain, Canada, and New Zealand have already proposed similar measures through which individuals’ SAVINGS accounts would be used to prop up the banks during times of Crisis.

It’s called a “bail-in,” but really it’s “THEFT” plain and simple. The banks made the terrible mistakes that rendered them insolvent. They (the banks) should simply fail. But instead of failing, the regulators want to keep the banks in business… using YOUR money.

Why is this?

Two reasons:

1)   The regulators don’t have the money to actually insure deposits that they claim.

2)   Politicians realize that people are fed up with the public funding bank bailouts… so they’re targeting individual savers in the banks that are in trouble.

It’s a simple question of math regarding #1. Banking deposits are in the trillions of Dollars and most deposit insurance entities only have a few billion Dollars in funds. Obviously, if a large bank were to fail under these circumstances there wouldn’t be the funds to cover deposits…

Regarding #2, politicians have begun to realize that the public simply won’t stomach another Federal bailout of the banks. So instead of getting everyone and their children to chip in by using the public’s funds… they’re going after the deposits of a select few people who have their funds IN the troubled bank.

Their thinking is that if you can’t steal a little from everyone, you might as well try to steal a lot from a few people.

Could this happen in the US?

You better believe it. In fact, the FDIC has already put forth a proposal to do EXACTLY this in the event of a Crisis.

Just four months ago, the FDIC drafted a formal strategy in which it suggested that during the next Crisis, it can…

1)   Decide WHAT banks are systemically important.

2)   Take control of any “systemically important” bank that it deems at risk of default.

3)   Once in control of the bank, YOUR savings deposits can be “written down” in value (meaning you LOSE money you thought was yours) as part of the bank bailout.

Less than 99% of Americans realize this is the case, but the legislation allowing this is already IN PLACE and the FDIC has already written out the rules for what will happen.

We’ve put together a special investment report outlining this situation which EVERY person with a savings deposit needs to read now BEFORE the next Crisis hits the US. Doing this can mean the difference between keeping your nest egg secure… and losing EVERYTHING.

This report is titled, The Secret FDIC Rule That Puts Your Savings At Risk.”

How much is this report worth?

How much money do you stand to lose if your bank declares a “holiday” and your funds are frozen then WRITTEN DOWN IN VALUE?

We’ve made this report FREE to all subscribers of our Private Wealth Advisory newsletter. An annual subscription to Private Wealth Advisory costs just $299. Given the importance of the risk posed to your wealth, I imagine that “The Secret FDIC Rule That Puts Your Savings At Risk.” alone is worth at a minimum, TEN TIMES that amount.

To reserve a copy of this report (we’re only making 100 copies available)… all you need to do is take out a trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.

You’ll immediately be given access to “The Secret FDIC Rule That Puts Your Savings At Risk.”  You’ll also begin receiving my bi-weekly investment alerts outlining the primary risks and opportunities in the financial system today.

To pick up a copy of “The Secret FDIC Rule That Puts Your Savings At Risk.”

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market

Japan Has Shown Us the Way To Our Own Monetary Disaster

Japan is the ultimate basket case for monetization. The country buys its own bonds, stocks, ETFs, foreign bonds, even REITs. All in all, the country has spent over 20% of its GDP in QE… and its economy continues to slow.

And yet, despite its complete, abject failure to produce any significant pick up in economy activity or employment via these policies, the Bank of Japan has decided to do EVEN MORE OF THEM.

Just this morning, the Bank of Japan decided to increase its QE efforts with a new program to spend ¥ 7 trillion month buying bonds per month. It’s complete and utter insanity, especially since there is literally not one single instance in history in which debt monetization has produced economic growth.

Instead, it always produces the same thing: INFLATION.

Japan’s efforts to fight the economic slump by weakening its currency yen have led to a side effect: higher prices. Rising costs of daily necessities, ranging from petrol to food, have started to take a toll on the public.

At a petrol station in Sapporo, one of Japan’s largest cities, soaring petrol prices have kept many price-sensitive motorists away from fully filling their tanks.

A motorist said:”It’s hard for us. For us ordinary folks, even the smallest price rise is not easy to digest.”

http://english.cntv.cn/program/bizasia/20130201/105864.shtml

And this is precisely the policy Ben Bernanke is engaging in. The Fed is spending $85 billion per month, that’s roughly $2.8 billion per day, buying debt and other garbage.

He, like the people running the Bank of Japan, somehow believes that printing money will result in economic growth. This is a bit ironic given that GDP growth is collapsing in the US, DESPITE him launching both QE 3 and QE 4 last year. Indeed, when we account for the real increase in inflation, 4Q12 GDP growth was over NEGATIVE 1%.

We all know how this will end: with higher inflation/ costs of living and now very likely with a market crash. Every bubble the Fed has blown has resulted in disaster. This time will be no different.

With that in mind, now is the time to be preparing your portfolio for what’s coming. The lessons from Cyprus are obvious: the warning signs of disaster show up very early (Cyprus first requested a bailout in June 2012). However, once things get messy… it happens ALL AT ONCE.

Cyprus’s entire banking system shut down in one weekend. At that point 99% of people couldn’t get access to their money. Those who prepared in advance were fine. Those who didn’t ended up losing 60% of their wealth in less than a week.

Don’t let this happen to you.

We’ve just released a Special Investment Report outlining the threat of inflation to your financial well-being.

To read this report and start taking action to prepare yourself and your loved ones for what’s coming…

Click Here Now!

Best Regards,

Graham Summers

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market