Inflation

23
Aug
2018

Two Major Reasons Why the US Dollar Will Soon Drop Hard

I’ve received a number of emails from readers asking me how I can be so certain that the $USD will be dropping hard going forward.

The answer is simple… neither the US Government, not the US corporate sector can afford an extremely strong $USD.

The Trump administration has proven itself to be Keynesian on steroids… and is planning to run $1 trillion deficits despite the roaring economy.

A strong $USD would make this very difficult to do.

It would also have a highly negative impact on US corporations that derive nearly 50% of revenues from overseas. We are already seeing C-level executives discussing the negative impact on recent $USD strength during conference calls.

This happens any time the $USD approaches the mid-90s… which we call “the line in the sand.” There is a reason we had an “earnings recession” in 2015-2016: it’s the fact the $USD was in the upper -90s/ low 100s crushing profit margins.

Put simply, both the Government and the Corporate sector want the $USD to roll over here and now.

So we expect the $USD to roll over hard soon. But I want to be clear here… I’m calling for the $USD in the mid-80s… not some full-scale collapse.

Why?

The Fed NEEDS the $USD to remain strong enough to attract capital so the US can continue to fund its deficits and debt issuance… but not strong enough that it actively hurts the economy.

If the $USD were to collapse rapidly it could cause a crisis of confidence in the currency. That is the LAST thing you want if you’re attempting to run $1 trillion deficits.

The long-term chart paints a nice picture for what I’m expecting. The $USD has in fact been forming a series of lower lows since 2014. The next low will take us to the mid’80s (see the red arrow).

That’s a heck of a “tell” from the markets. And it’s “telling” us that we’re about to see a major inflationary move as the $USD drops hard.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning a FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm

We are making just 99 copies available to the public.

There are just 29 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
23
Aug
2018
Did the Single Most Important Chart in the World Stage a False Breakout?

Did the Single Most Important Chart in the World Stage a False Breakout?

I’ve received a number of emails from readers asking me how I can be so certain that the $USD will be dropping hard going forward.

The answer is simple… neither the US Government, not the US corporate sector can afford an extremely strong $USD.

The Trump administration has proven itself to be Keynesian on steroids… and is planning to run $1 trillion deficits despite the roaring economy.

A strong $USD would make this very difficult to do.

It would also have a highly negative impact on US corporations that derive nearly 50% of revenues from overseas. We are already seeing C-level executives discussing the negative impact on recent $USD strength during conference calls.

This happens any time the $USD approaches the mid-90s… which we call “the line in the sand.” There is a reason we had an “earnings recession” in 2015-2016: it’s the fact the $USD was in the upper -90s/ low 100s crushing profit margins.

Put simply, both the Government and the Corporate sector want the $USD to roll over here and now.

So we expect the $USD to roll over hard soon. But I want to be clear here… I’m calling for the $USD in the mid-80s… not some full-scale collapse.

Why?

The Fed NEEDS the $USD to remain strong enough to attract capital so the US can continue to fund its deficits and debt issuance… but not strong enough that it actively hurts the economy.

If the $USD were to collapse rapidly it could cause a crisis of confidence in the currency. That is the LAST thing you want if you’re attempting to run $1 trillion deficits.

The long-term chart paints a nice picture for what I’m expecting. The $USD has in fact been forming a series of lower lows since 2014. The next low will take us to the mid’80s (see the red arrow).

That’s a heck of a “tell” from the markets. And it’s “telling” us that we’re about to see a major inflationary move as the $USD drops hard.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning a FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm

We are making just 99 copies available to the public.

There are just 29 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
09
Aug
2018
The Deflationary Summer Doldrums Are About to End

The Deflationary Summer Doldrums Are About to End

Why the $USD is about to collapse.

The Fed left rates unchanged last week, upgrading its view on the economy from “stable” to “strong.” It also reiterated its plans to raise rates two more times in 2018.

Put simply, this was a notably hawkish Fed meeting. Which is why it’s striking that the $USD didn’t do much of anything in response. The greenback was effectively flat that day.

Truth be told, the $USD hasn’t done much of anything since the Fed June meeting. Again, this is striking because the Fed is currently engaged in the single most hawkish monetary policy in history with 3-4 intended rate hikes per year and a QT program of $30 billion per month.

And yet, the $USD has traded sideways since mid-June.

Let’s be honest here, if the $USD cannot mount a major bull rally when the Fed is this hawkish (and other Central Banks are maintaining NIRP and QE programs), then the $USD is in SERIOUS trouble.

The picture worsens for the $USD when you start including currency pairs.

The Australian Dollar: $USD pair, the Canada Dollar: $USD pair, and the New Zealand Dollar: $USD pair are all bottoming right now. This is a MAJOR signal that the $USD is turn sharply down.

So, we’ve got the $USD failing to breakout to the upside despite the Fed running the most aggressively hawkish monetary policy in history… as well as the three most significant inflationary currency pairs signaling pronounced $USD weakness is about to hit.

That’s a heck of a “tell” from the markets. And it’s “telling” us that we’re about to see a major inflationary move.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning a FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm

We are making just 99 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
09
Aug
2018

A Major Currency Breakout is Occurring… But Less Than 1% of Investors Have Noticed

Why the $USD is about to collapse.

The Fed left rates unchanged last week, upgrading its view on the economy from “stable” to “strong.” It also reiterated its plans to raise rates two more times in 2018.

Put simply, this was a notably hawkish Fed meeting. Which is why it’s striking that the $USD didn’t do much of anything in response. The greenback was effectively flat that day.

Truth be told, the $USD hasn’t done much of anything since the Fed June meeting. Again, this is striking because the Fed is currently engaged in the single most hawkish monetary policy in history with 3-4 intended rate hikes per year and a QT program of $30 billion per month.

And yet, the $USD has traded sideways since mid-June.

Let’s be honest here, if the $USD cannot mount a major bull rally when the Fed is this hawkish (and other Central Banks are maintaining NIRP and QE programs), then the $USD is in SERIOUS trouble.

The picture worsens for the $USD when you start including currency pairs.

The Australian Dollar: $USD pair, the Canada Dollar: $USD pair, and the New Zealand Dollar: $USD pair are all bottoming right now. This is a MAJOR signal that the $USD is turn sharply down.

So, we’ve got the $USD failing to breakout to the upside despite the Fed running the most aggressively hawkish monetary policy in history… as well as the three most significant inflationary currency pairs signaling pronounced $USD weakness is about to hit.

That’s a heck of a “tell” from the markets. And it’s “telling” us that we’re about to see a major inflationary move.

We just published a Special Investment Report concerning a FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm

We are making just 99 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
07
Aug
2018

Is the $USD About to Reverse and Drop Hard?

Traders will shoot for new all-time highs for the S&P 500 today or tomorrow.

But first, a quick review of our calls for this year.

Back in mid-march, when everyone was getting bullish about stocks, we warned that the S&P 500 would revisit the lows.

Then, in late March/ early April that we believed the stock market would make a run to new all-time highs this summer. Thus far the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ have already accomplished this. The S&P 500 is now less than 30 points from doing the same.

However, since June the risk/reward profile flipped for us, and we started warning of a potentially sharp move lower in stocks.

The issue for us pertains to Fed policy. The Fed is far too aggressive right now, particularly when you compare what it’s doing to what the ECB and BoJ are doing. Companies are already warning of the damage the $USD’s strength is having on future results. And as we know, stocks are a discounting mechanism.

Which is why we remain concerned of a potentially aggressive sell-off in US stocks. We are NOT calling for a crash, but the odds heavily favor a sharp move lower, rather than an explosive rally at this point.

So while new ATHs are coming, the real opportunity lies on the other side.

Those who are allocating capital based on this… could stand to make a FORTUNE as it unfolds.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

Do NOT delay… there are fewer than 200 slots remaining.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
16
Jul
2018

Even the Heavily Massaged CPI Has Inflation at 3%

As we noted on Friday, the official inflation metric, called the Consumer Price Index (or CPI) is designed to HIDE inflation, not measure it.

Case in point, over the last two months, the CPI has relied on the collapse in prices of various non-essential items (airline tickets, hotel rooms, etc.) to “cover up” the increase in energy, housing, and the other items we all need.

And yet, even despite this “massaging” of the data, the CPI has hit 2.9%.

Put another way, inflation is running so hot right now that even with various gimmicks in place, the CPI is STILL closing in on 3%.

—————————————————————-

A Select Group of Traders Are CRUSHING the Market   By 25%… With Just 1 Trade Per Week

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak: 12 of our last 14 trades were double digit winners!

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 29% this year alone… beating the S&P 500 by an astonishing 25%.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Why is this a big deal?

Because TREASURY bond yields trade based on inflation. If inflation is soaring higher, bond yields will also rise to accommodate this.

If bond yields RISE, bond prices DROP.

And if bond prices DROP enough, the Debt Bubble bursts.

With that in mind, consider that yields on Treasuries have broken their long-term 20-year trendline.

This is a MAJOR problem. The entire debt bubble requires interest rates to remain LOW in order for it to be maintained.

Inflation is screwing this up for the Fed… which now faces a NASTY choice… continue to support stocks or defend bonds… and unfortunately for stock investors, it’s going to have to choose bonds.

Put another way, I believe there is a significant chance the Fed will let the stock market collapse in order to drive capital BACK into the bond market to force bond yields down.

Yes, the Fed has screwed up with monetary policy. And it is doing so intentionally to try to sustain the Debt Bubble. Currently the downside target for the collapse is in the 2,300-2,450 range.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the carnage hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, stock collapse?
13
Jul
2018
Will the Fed Sacrifice Stocks to Contain Inflation?

Will the Fed Sacrifice Stocks to Contain Inflation?

Anyone who continues to claim the Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually measures REAL inflation is in abject denial.

In May of this year, the BLS managed to claim that CPI only rose a measly 0.2% due to the fact that used car prices and airfares dropped. Yes, the BLS used the drop in those two items to negate the sharp rise in healthcare expenses, energy prices, housing prices, and even food prices.

The BLS was at it again in the most recent CPI, this time using a RECORD drop in HOTEL COSTS to insure that inflation rose only 0.1% in June.

What makes this spectacularly ludicrous is the fact that the Fed’s “in-house” inflation measure, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG), shows REAL inflation is well over 3%.

The UIG now has inflation at 3.3%.

Why does this matter?

Because bond yields trade based on inflation. If inflation is soaring higher, bond yields will also rise to accommodate this.

If bond yields RISE, bond prices DROP.

And if bond prices DROP enough, the Debt Bubble bursts.

With that in mind, consider that yields on Treasuries have broken their long-term 20-year trendline.

This is a MAJOR problem. The entire debt bubble requires interest rates to remain LOW in order for it to be maintained.

Inflation is screwing this up for the Fed… which now faces a NASTY choice… continue to support stocks or defend bonds… and unfortunately for stock investors, it’s going to have to choose bonds.

Put another way, I believe there is a significant chance the Fed will let the stock market collapse in order to drive capital BACK into the bond market to force bond yields down.

Yes, the Fed has screwed up with monetary policy. And it is doing so intentionally to try to sustain the Debt Bubble. Currently the downside target for the collapse is in the 2,300-2,450 range.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the bloodbath hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
13
Jul
2018

Real Inflation Hits 3.3%… The Fed Will Have To Choose Which Bubble to Burst

Anyone who continues to claim the Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually measures REAL inflation is in abject denial.

In May of this year, the BLS managed to claim that CPI only rose a measly 0.2% due to the fact that used car prices and airfares dropped. Yes, the BLS used the drop in those two items to negate the sharp rise in healthcare expenses, energy prices, housing prices, and even food prices.

The BLS was at it again in the most recent CPI, this time using a RECORD drop in HOTEL COSTS to insure that inflation rose only 0.1% in June.

What makes this spectacularly ludicrous is the fact that the Fed’s “in-house” inflation measure, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG), shows REAL inflation is well over 3%.

The UIG now has inflation at 3.3%.

Why does this matter?

Because bond yields trade based on inflation. If inflation is soaring higher, bond yields will also rise to accommodate this.

If bond yields RISE, bond prices DROP.

And if bond prices DROP enough, the Debt Bubble bursts.

With that in mind, consider that yields on Treasuries have broken their long-term 20-year trendline.

This is a MAJOR problem. The entire debt bubble requires interest rates to remain LOW in order for it to be maintained.

Inflation is screwing this up for the Fed… which now faces a NASTY choice… continue to support stocks or defend bonds… and unfortunately for stock investors, it’s going to have to choose bonds.

Put another way, I believe there is a significant chance the Fed will let the stock market collapse in order to drive capital BACK into the bond market to force bond yields down.

Yes, the Fed has screwed up with monetary policy. And it is doing so intentionally to try to sustain the Debt Bubble. Currently the downside target for the collapse is in the 2,300-2,450 range.

The time to prepare for this is NOW before the bloodbath hits.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients with a 21-page investment report that shows them FOUR investment strategies that will protect their capital when and if a stock market crash hits.

It’s called The Stock Market Crash Survival Guide… and it is available exclusively to our clients.

To pick up one of the 100 copies…use the link below.

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
14
Jun
2018

The Fed Made a Startling Admission Concerning Inflation Yesterday

The Fed  revealed how badly behind the curve it is on inflation yesterday.

Sure, everyone believes the Fed was hawkish because it wants to hike rates two more times this year with an additional three es in 2019… but lost amidst that is the fact the Fed upgraded its inflation forecast while emphasizing that policy “remains accommodative.”

Put another way, if SEVEN rate hikes over a two year period are “accommodative,” REAL inflation is WELL above where rates are now.

Remember, Jerome Powell is not a clueless academic like Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke. Powell has ample experience in the private sector and is well aware that the Fed’s official inflation measures are garbage.

If you don’t believe me, consider how the actual markets reacted to the Fed statement. The $USD which SHOULD rally hard based on the Fed being hawkish gave up all its gains in just a few minutes.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Meanwhile, Gold and other inflation hedges EXPLODED higher, finishing the day at the highs.

Let me ask you… is a collapsing $USD and a strong Gold rally inflationary or deflationary?

Remember the Fed has ready admitted its open to an “inflationary overshoot.” Given how guarded the Fed typically is concerning real risks to the financial system (remember the “subprime is contained” gaffe in 2007?) this suggests the Fed is well aware inflation is going to be a REAL problem.

On that note, we recently published a special investment report on how to profit from inflation. The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, WHITE Swan
14
Jun
2018

The Fed Went Hawkish… Because It’s WAY Behind the Curve

The Fed  revealed how badly behind the curve it is on inflation yesterday.

Sure, everyone believes the Fed was hawkish because it wants to hike rates two more times this year with an additional three es in 2019… but lost amidst that is the fact the Fed upgraded its inflation forecast while emphasizing that policy “remains accommodative.”

Put another way, if SEVEN rate hikes over a two year period are “accommodative,” REAL inflation is WELL above where rates are now.

Remember, Jerome Powell is not a clueless academic like Janet Yellen or Ben Bernanke. Powell has ample experience in the private sector and is well aware that the Fed’s official inflation measures are garbage.

If you don’t believe me, consider how the actual markets reacted to the Fed statement. The $USD which SHOULD rally hard based on the Fed being hawkish gave up all its gains in just a few minutes.

 

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Meanwhile, Gold and other inflation hedges EXPLODED higher, finishing the day at the highs.

Let me ask you… is a collapsing $USD and a strong Gold rally inflationary or deflationary?

Remember the Fed has ready admitted its open to an “inflationary overshoot.” Given how guarded the Fed typically is concerning real risks to the financial system (remember the “subprime is contained” gaffe in 2007?) this suggests the Fed is well aware inflation is going to be a REAL problem.

On that note, we recently published a special investment report on how to profit from inflation. The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation, WHITE Swan
13
Jun
2018

Will the Fed Choose Inflation or Deflation? Here’s What the $USD is Saying

The Fed meets today, and whatever happens will be a BIG “tell” for the rest of the year.

On the one hand, inflation is clearly seeping fully into the financial system. Even the ridiculously massaged CPI measure of inflation shows it is close to 3%.

This would suggest the Fed would move aggressively to hike rates to curb inflation.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

On the other hand, the Fed has already hiked rates TWICE in the last six months while withdrawing $116 billion liquidity via its QT operations. And even this has resulted in a crisis brewing in the emerging market space with emerging market currencies imploding against the $USD.

This would suggest the Fed will start “walking back” its hawkishness as the last FOMC minutes would suggest… with fewer rates hikes this year and possibly slowing the pace of its QT program.

Our money is on the latter option.

The Fed ready admitted its open to an “inflationary overshoot.” Given how guarded the Fed typically is concerning real risks to the financial system (remember the “subprime is contained” gaffe in 2007?) this suggests the Fed is well aware inflation is going to be a REAL problem.

The $USD seems to be “sensing this” as it is struggling at major resistance for most major currency pairs.

Put simply, we believe the Fed will choose inflation over a deflationary crisis in the emerging market space.On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

On that note, we recently published a special investment report on how to profit from inflation. The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, WHITE Swan
13
Jun
2018
The $USD Thinks the Fed Will Choose Inflation

The $USD Thinks the Fed Will Choose Inflation

The Fed meets today, and whatever happens will be a BIG “tell” for the rest of the year.

On the one hand, inflation is clearly seeping fully into the financial system. Even the ridiculously massaged CPI measure of inflation shows it is close to 3%.

This would suggest the Fed would move aggressively to hike rates to curb inflation.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

On the other hand, the Fed has already hiked rates TWICE in the last six months while withdrawing $116 billion liquidity via its QT operations. And even this has resulted in a crisis brewing in the emerging market space with emerging market currencies imploding against the $USD.

This would suggest the Fed will start “walking back” its hawkishness as the last FOMC minutes would suggest… with fewer rates hikes this year and possibly slowing the pace of its QT program.

Our money is on the latter option.

The Fed ready admitted its open to an “inflationary overshoot.” Given how guarded the Fed typically is concerning real risks to the financial system (remember the “subprime is contained” gaffe in 2007?) this suggests the Fed is well aware inflation is going to be a REAL problem.

The $USD seems to be “sensing this” as it is struggling at major resistance for most major currency pairs.

Put simply, we believe the Fed will choose inflation over a deflationary crisis in the emerging market space.On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

On that note, we recently published a special investment report on how to profit from inflation. The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, WHITE Swan
12
Jun
2018

Wake Up Fed… Inflation is About to Become a REAL Problem

Inflation is now strong enough that even the heavily massaged CPI metric is showing it well above 2%.

Indeed, based on this morning’s release, the CPI is rising at its fastest pace in six years. Year-over-Year, CPI is rising 2.8%. Bear in mind, this metric doesn’t include food prices, energy prices, and other important factors… which are all higher.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

This means that CPI now joins, the Fed’s UIG inflation measure (now at 3.2%) in revealing that REAL inflation is well over 2% and likely at 3%.

Put simply, BIG inflation is on the way, and it’s going to send risk assets through the roof (remember stocks LOVE inflation at first).

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. This is going to push the S&P 500 to new all time highs. And it will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

We all know what’s coming afterwards.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
12
Jun
2018

CPI is Nearing 3%… Real Inflation? It’s Much Higher

Inflation is now strong enough that even the heavily massaged CPI metric is showing it well above 2%.

Indeed, based on this morning’s release, the CPI is rising at its fastest pace in six years. Year-over-Year, CPI is rising 2.8%. Bear in mind, this metric doesn’t include food prices, energy prices, and other important factors… which are all higher.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

This means that CPI now joins, the Fed’s UIG inflation measure (now at 3.2%) in revealing that REAL inflation is well over 2% and likely at 3%.

Put simply, BIG inflation is on the way, and it’s going to send risk assets through the roof (remember stocks LOVE inflation at first).

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. This is going to push the S&P 500 to new all time highs. And it will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

We all know what’s coming afterwards.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
12
Jun
2018

The Inflationary Rip is About to Begin (Here’s How to Play It)

Inflation is now strong enough that even the heavily massaged CPI metric is showing it well above 2%.

Indeed, based on this morning’s release, the CPI is rising at its fastest pace in six years. Year-over-Year, CPI is rising 2.8%. Bear in mind, this metric doesn’t include food prices, energy prices, and other important factors… which are all higher.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

This means that CPI now joins, the Fed’s UIG inflation measure (now at 3.2%) in revealing that REAL inflation is well over 2% and likely at 3%.

Put simply, BIG inflation is on the way, and it’s going to send risk assets through the roof (remember stocks LOVE inflation at first).

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. This is going to push the S&P 500 to new all time highs. And it will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

We all know what’s coming afterwards.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
12
Jun
2018

Inflation Watch: Even the Highly Gimmicked CPI is Nearing 3%

Inflation is now strong enough that even the heavily massaged CPI metric is showing it well above 2%.

Indeed, based on this morning’s release, the CPI is rising at its fastest pace in six years. Year-over-Year, CPI is rising 2.8%. Bear in mind, this metric doesn’t include food prices, energy prices, and other important factors… which are all higher.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

This means that CPI now joins, the Fed’s UIG inflation measure (now at 3.2%) in revealing that REAL inflation is well over 2% and likely at 3%.

Put simply, BIG inflation is on the way, and it’s going to send risk assets through the roof (remember stocks LOVE inflation at first).

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. This is going to push the S&P 500 to new all time highs. And it will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

We all know what’s coming afterwards.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
11
Jun
2018

Fed Policy Just Slammed Into a BRIC Wall

The Fed’s plan of withdrawing $1 trillion in liquidity this year via QT has slammed into a BRIC wall.

Year to date, the Fed has shrunken its balance sheet by $116 billion. This sounds like a lot of money until you put it in perspective.  


—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

That measly little drop has blown up emerging market currencies resulting in an emerging stock market meltdown everywhere from South Africa, to Brazil, to Turkey.

Put simply, the Fed has only shrunken its balance sheet by less than 3% and already it’s creating a crisis in the emerging market space.

The Fed will now HAVE TO “walk back” its QT program as well as its intended rate hikes for this year. The alternative (a deflationary crisis in emerging markets that will eventually seep into the US) is too ugly.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
07
Jun
2018
Make No Mistake, An “Inflationary Overshoot” Is Unavoidable at This Point

Make No Mistake, An “Inflationary Overshoot” Is Unavoidable at This Point

The Fed has gone dovish. In fact, it’s going to allow inflation to explode higher.

That, in of itself, is significant… to understand why, we first need to acknowledge how the Fed currently operates to control risk in the financial system.

The Fed currently has two primary tools for controlling the financial system. They are:

1) The size of its balance sheet (via Quantitative Easing, or QE, and Quantitative Tightening, or QT, programs)

And …

2) The Fed Funds Rate which controls the prices of “money” in the system.

Regarding #1, after engaging off and on in QE for six years (2008-2014), the Fed has only been tapering QE for six months and it’s already in trouble. 

The fact the Fed is already “pumping the brakes” despite having shrunken its balance sheet a mere $126 billion (less than 3% of its gargantuan $4.3 TRILLION balance sheet) is telling.

`

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Regarding #2, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds Target rate six times from 0.15% to its current level of 1.5%-1.75%. While this DOES seem significant, it is worth noting that these are usually the levels to which the Fed CUTs rates during a recession/ crisis.

Put another way, having kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at ZERO for seven years (’08-’15), even after some 2+ years of tightening, rates remain at levels that USUALLY mark EXTREMELY easy conditions.

To conclude… both of the Fed’s primary tools for controlling the financial system have barely budged towards normalization…  and the Fed is already going dovish. Indeed, the Fed opened the door to an inflationary “overshoot” of its 2% inflation target in last month’s FOMC release!

Let me be blunt… The Fed will ALWAYS understate things because its primary role is to maintain financial stability. So if the Fed is even hinting at permitting an inflationary overshoot, it’s because the Fed knows this is unavoidable.

The $USD has already figured this out and is rolling over on its way to a NEW lows.

And this move is going to send risk assets, especially inflation/ reflation trades THROUGH THE ROOF.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, WHITE Swan
06
Jun
2018

The Dead Cat Bounce in the Dollar is Over

It never fails.

Any time the $USD begins to rally, even a little bit, the deflationists come out in full force proclaiming that it’s the start of some major bull market that will blow up the financial system.

Take this latest bounce in the $USD.

Having staged one of the worst annual returns in years in 2017 (down over 14%), the $USD was BEYOND oversold. Throw in the fact that traders were RECORD short the $USD and record long the Euro, and the stage was set for a $USD bounce.

That bounce is now OVER. The $USD has slammed into major resistance. And anyone who thinks that the US currency is going to explode higher when the ECB is about to ends its QE program needs their head examined.

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That Makes SEVEN Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in EIGHT double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 43% this year alone.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Instead, the next move will be the $USD breaking down to the mid-80s.

And this move is going to send risk assets, especially inflation/ reflation trades THROUGH THE ROOF.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

We all know what’s coming afterwards.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
04
Jun
2018
Remember, Stocks LOVE Inflation at First (New All Time Highs Are Coming)

Remember, Stocks LOVE Inflation at First (New All Time Highs Are Coming)

Let’s talk about inflation.

Inflation enters the economy in stages. It’s not as though the Fed begins to print money and POOF! inflation appears. It takes time.

The first stage occurs in the manufacturing/ production segment of the economy when you see producers suddenly paying more for the raw goods and commodities they use to manufacture/ produce finished goods.

You can see this development in the chart below. The highlighted periods featured times in which Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods spiked approached record highs.

One or two months or higher Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods is no big deal, but once you’re talking 6-8 months of steadily rising Producer Prices it’s significant. At that point manufacturers/ producers have to start raising the prices of finished goods or face shrinking profit margins.

At that point you move into the second stage of inflation. That didn’t happen in 2008 (the deflationary crisis removed the inflationary stresses). But it did happen in 2011. And it’s happening again now.

When the price of finished goods begins to rise, you’re in stage 2 for inflation. Again, this can be temporary, but if you have multiple months of this, you’re talking about a significant development.

Bear in mind, that phase 2 can happen in different ways. Management at companies don’t just say “raise the price now!” Instead they can do different things such as charge the same amount for less of a finished product/ shrink the size of the container. This is called shrinkflation.

Another strategy is to start using cheaper/ lower quality raw goods (to reduce costs/ quality) while charging the SAME amount for the finished good. This too is inflation as the cost of the SAME item is MORE expensive, though it’s being masked because the QUALITY is LOWER and the price is the same.

You get the general idea.

I’ve marked periods in which “Stage 2” of inflation occurred in the last 10 years on the chart below.

It’s HERE that inflation begins to appear in the economy. However, it doesn’t become a SERIOUS problem until you reach the point at which the price of finished goods remain elevated long enough that people start to demand raises/ higher wages to maintain their living standards.

THAT is Stage 3 for inflation… the inflation that most people think about when they use the word. And it marks when it’s fully seeped into the economy.

We are now hitting this stage.

We hit phase 1 back in mid 2016. We hit phase 2 in early/mid 2017. We are now hitting phase 3.

Average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in April. That pushed the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in April.

Source: Reuters.

You read that correctly… while the CPI and other inflationary measures show inflation only slightly above 2%, WAGES have been rising by over 2.5% year over year for months (since at least January 2018).

Put another way, “INFLATION” as most refer to it, is finally seeping into the economy. By multiple measures it’s already north of 2.5%… and the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve with rates at a mere 1.75%.

This is THE trend going forward for financial markets. And those who are well prepared for it will do extremely well.

Remember, stocks LOVE inflation at first. But that relationship quickly goes south once inflation becomes so aggressive that it eats into profit margins no matter WHAT the company does.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation