The Fed is now cornered courtesy of the coming inflationary recession. Let’s start with the economy first. The 2s-10s yield curve is just a 19.4 basis points away from inversion.…
By Graham Summers, MBA Yesterday, I outlined how the markets are likely at a very critical point regarding inflation. By quick way of review: 1) Stocks initially love inflation because it boosts…
By Graham Summers, MBA We’ve now reached the point at which inflation will become a major problem. Inflation is not inherently bad for stocks. The reason for this is that…
By Graham Summers, MBA Ignore the goldilocks crowd, the inflationary tidal wave is only just getting started. Everyone likes to talk about inflation, but very few people actually understand it.…
By Graham Summers, MBA Yesterday, I outlined the dark truth about the economic shutdowns of 2020. That truth? That the shutdowns have unleashed an inflationary tidal wave. Central bankers have…
By Graham Summers, MBA And there it is: REAL inflation of 9%! I’ve noted many times in the past that the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is…
As I outlined yesterday, inflation has arrived in the financial system… and there’s nothing policymakers can do to fix it. When the U.S. opted to shut down its economy in…
Government bureaucrats have accomplished what Central Bankers have failed to do. For decades, Central Banks have attempted to “create inflation.” They’ve cut interest rates over 800 times. They’ve printed over…
OK, now things are getting really serious. We all know the Fed is dead wrong about inflation. It is not transitory… and least not in the “it will go away by itself”…
Inflation is bad… so much worse than the official numbers admit. Dissecting all the gimmicks the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employed to understate the official inflation numbers would take…
By Graham Summers, MBA The bond market is calling the Fed’s bluff. The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year U.S. Treasury. The yield on this bond…
The Fed is now cornered (to a degree). This is not to say that the Fed cannot continue to print money, nor does it mean the Fed is “out of…
The Fed continues to push the narrative that inflation is transitory. On one level, Fed officials are correct. Everything is transitory. But the Fed isn’t being philosophical here…it’s attempting to argue that they…
Yesterday, I outlined a terrible secret. That secret? That the Fed knows the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is practically useless for forecasting future inflation. In a little-known paper published…
Yesterday I explained how the official inflation statistic used by policymakers, the Consumer Price Index or CPI, is practically useless. I realize this is quite controversial. After all, everyone on…
The deflationists had another bad day yesterday. Deflationists argue that inflation doesn’t exist because the Treasury market isn’t acting as if inflation is a problem. They always fail to mention…
Over the last two days, we’ve outlined how the bond market is predicting a surge in inflation. By quick way of review: Real rates, as measured by the difference between…
Yesterday I outlined how real rates suggest gold will be moving MUCH higher in the coming months. By quick way of review: Because we are in a fiat-based monetary regime,…
On Friday we outlined the strange price action in gold. As a quick recap: Because we are in a fiat-based monetary regime, gold trades like any other asset. Specifically, gold…
Yesterday I outlined how the Fed is extremely late to curb inflation. As a brief recap, it only took CPI clearing 5%, multiple signals that inflation is running hot, housing entering a…
