Month: December 2015

The world is lurching towards another Crash.

Japan, which has been ground zero for Keynesian insanity, is back in technical recession. This comes after the Bank of Japan launched the single largest QE program in history: a QE program equal to 25% of GDP launched in April 2013.

This program bought an uptick in economic growth for just six months before Japan’s GDP growth rolled over again. Similarly, an expansion of QE in October 2014 pulled Japan back from the brink, but GDP growth collapsed again soon after, plunging the country into technical recession earlier this year.

Japan is completely insolvent. The country has no choice but to continue to implement QE or else it will go crash in a matter of months. However, with the Bank of Japan already monetizing ALL of the country’s debt issuance, the question arises, “just what else can it buy?”

We’ll find out in 2016. But Japan is now officially in the End Game from Central Banking.

Europe is not far behind.

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The ECB has cut interest rates to negative, cut them further into negative, launched a QE program, and then cut interest rates even further into negative while extending its QE program.

EU GDP growth has flat-lined at barely positive.

But the economy is having serious difficulty fending off deflation.

When your ENTIRE banking system is leveraged by 26 to 1, as is Europe’s, even a 4% drop in asset values renders the system insolvent. Without significant inflation, the EU’s banking system will crash.

ECB President Draghi better have more in his bazooka that what he’s fired so far, or the EU’s $46 trillion banking system will crash. However, as is the case with the Bank of Japan, the ECB is facing a shortage of viable assets to buy.

Between these two banking systems alone, you’ve got the makings of a global financial crisis at least on par with 2008. Both countries are sinking into deflation at a time when their respective Central Banks have little if any ammo left.

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To whit, we just closed out two new double digit winners yesterday, bringing us to 40 straight winning trades over the last 12 months.

That correct, during the last year, we’ve not closed a SINGLE LOSER.

And if you go back further, 46 of our last 47 trades have made money.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS.

During that time, you’ll receive over 50 pages of content… along with investment ideas that will help make you money… ideas you won’t hear about anywhere else.

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 day, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

One of the most frustrating aspects of today’s financial system is the fact that the Fed is being lead by lifelong academics with no real world banking or business experience.

Consider the cases of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.

Neither of these individuals has ever created a job based on generating sales of any kind. Neither of them has ever had to make payroll. Neither of them has ever run a business. What are economic realities for business owners (e.g. operating costs, capital and profits) are just abstract concepts for Bernanke and Yellen.

Moreover, there is a particular problem with academic economists. That problem is that a major percentage of their “research” is total bunk made up in order to make tenure.

This is not our opinion… it is fact based on research published by the Fed itself.

According to a paper published by researchers from THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, it was not possible to replicate even HALF of the results found in economics papers EVEN WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO WROTE THE PAPER.

Let’s repeat that: even with the help of those who claimed to have found the results, the results were not replicable.

There is a word for a result that is not replicable. It’s imaginary.

This might go a long ways towards explaining how individuals like Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen can continue to say with a straight face that they have a grip on the economy, when the results show that they are either completely lost or being dishonest.
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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 is 0%.

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Consider the Fed’s unemployment target for raising rates.

Back in 2012, the Fed claimed it would start to raise rates when unemployment fell to 6.5%. We hit that target in April 2014. The Fed didn’t raise rates for another 20 months.

One wonders, just what was the legitimacy of the Fed’s “target” for raising rates. How on earth can you make a target, then move the target for nearly two more years and claim the target was even remotely accurate?

More importantly, if the Fed’s economic models suggested raising rates when unemployment was 6.5% and the Fed didn’t raise rates until unemployment was at 5% (a full 20 months later)… just how accurate are these models?

We might be nitpicking here, but if the models in question are being used to steer the US economy, there is an awful lot at stake here.

Let’s take a look at what happens when the Fed’s theories connect with the real world.

The Fed claims it cut rates to ZERO to boost the economy. The theory here is that if capital becomes cheaper, corporates and consumers will spend more, creating more jobs.

Unfortunately this is not how the real world works. For consumers, excessive debt is deflationary in nature in that at some point you are so in debt that making your debt load more serviceable accomplishes next to nothing in terms of solvency/ spending power.

Moreover, ZIRP is deflationary in nature for savers and those who rely on interest income because it makes them concerned about future returns on their capital. As a result of this, they tend to hoard their cash, not spend it.

The only individuals who benefit from ZIRP are the very wealthy and corporates, because both can use their assets to leverage up. And this is precisely what has happened.

We are currently on track for our FOURTH straight RECORD year for corporate bond issuance.

Why is this bad?

Because A) it means corporations are going massively in debt and B) they are doing this NOT to expand operations (economic growth doesn’t warrant this) but to issue buybacks and dividends.

With rates at zero, executives are leveraging up to generate shareholder returns. This works great in the short-term, but there is hell to pay down the road. And unfortunately we’re there.

Today US corporates are more leveraged than at any other point in history, including the Tech Bubble.

H/T Societe General

This is what happens when the Fed’s academic-based nonsense collides with economic realities: perversions of capital that lead to massive bubbles and eventually even more massive crises.

The Fed fueled the Tech Bubble, which lead to the Tech Crash.

It then fueled the Housing Bubble, which lead to the Housing Crash and 2008.

And now it’s created an ever bigger bubble that that.

Which means.,.

We are heading for a crisis that will be exponentially worse than 2008. The global Central Banks have literally bet the financial system that their theories will work. They haven’t. All they’ve done is set the stage for an even worse crisis in which entire countries will go bankrupt.

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To whit, we just closed out two new double digit winners yesterday, bringing us to 40 straight winning trades over the last 12 months.

That correct, during the last year, we’ve not closed a SINGLE LOSER.

And if you go back further, 46 of our last 47 trades have made money.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS.

During that time, you’ll receive over 50 pages of content… along with investment ideas that will help make you money… ideas you won’t hear about anywhere else.

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 day, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Central Banks are beginning to lose control.

Indeed, despite recent promises to do more by the Bank of Japan, the Nikkei is rapidly losing momentum.

In Europe, the situation is worse. There the ECB has already cut interest rates to negative THREE times, launched QE and already extended said QE.

Still, EU stocks are rolling over and testing their bull market trendline.

———————————————————————–

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Even if you include ALL of our losers, we are up 35% year to date.

Over the same time period, the S&P 500 is FLAT (0%).

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———————————————————————–

Finally, there’s the US where the Central Bank is no longer easing but is in fact raising rates. There the markets have ALREADY taken out their bull market trendline.

Are you ready for a bear market?

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit, we just closed out two new double digit winners yesterday, bringing us to 40 straight winning trades over the last 12 months.

That correct, during the last year, we’ve not closed a SINGLE LOSER.

And if you go back further, 46 of our last 47 trades have made money.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS.

During that time, you’ll receive over 50 pages of content… along with investment ideas that will help make you money… ideas you won’t hear about anywhere else.

If you have not seen significant returns from Private Wealth Advisory during those 30 day, just drop us a line and we’ll cancel your subscription with no additional charges.

All the reports you download are yours to keep, free of charge.

To take out a $0.98, 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Since 2009, the global markets have been largely steered by Central Bank policy, NOT organic economic growth. With the debt-based monetary system dangerously close to shutting down during the 2008 meltdown, Central Banks stepped in as the “buyers of last resort” to provide a backstop to the system.

The problem is that the individuals running the Central Banks are prone to human hubris, specifically overconfidence in the validity of their opinions and abilities. Since most Central Bankers are Keynesian economists at heart, they believe that granting Central Banks MORE power is always a good thing.

Thus, rather than stepping back once the Crisis had passed (2011-2012), Central Banks continued to prop up the markets and push for greatest Centralization of the global economy.

As a result of this, the initial distortions in the capital markets induced by QE and Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) became systemic in nature. Investors no longer bought assets based on perceived value relative to the real economy. Rather, they bought based on perceived Central Bank actions and promises.

The most egregious example of this pertains to the sovereign bond market where investors began to front-run Central Bankers QE programs.

Indeed, the promise of “more QE” was one of the most powerful tools in Central Banks’ belts. Mind you, it was the promise of QE, not the QE itself that had the biggest impact on bonds.

Consider what happened in 2010.

QE 1 ended in June 2010. Soon after, the Fed began to hint at launching a new program, QE 2. Bonds rallied hard throughout this period as investors bought bonds to front-run the upcoming program. Once QE 2 was actually launched, bonds FELL.

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———————————————————————–

This was a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”

In plain terms, the bond market’s risk profile was skewed not only by Central Bank policy… it was skewed by the promise and hope of additional policy. Indeed, the largest bond moves occurred BEFORE QE 2 and Operation Twist were announced.

Below is a chart showing the performance of the 10-Year Treasury. Periods in which the Fed was actively engaged in QE or Operation Twist are white. Periods in which the Fed was hinting at or promising additional policies are in green. Note that the largest bond rallies (meaning yields fell) occurred during periods in which the Fed was PROMISING to do more, as opposed to actually DOING anything.

And since the Fed began hinting at additional policy soon after any actual policy ended, the bond markets became permanently skewed as investors were continuously reacting to hype and hope more than economic realities.

The implications of this are tremendous. Modern financial theory dictates that sovereign bonds, particularly, US Treasuries, are the only true “risk free” rate of return in the current financial system. ALL other asset classes trade based on where sovereign bonds, particularly US Treasuries trade.

So if the US Treasury market’s risk profile becomes skewed by Central Bank policy (and verbal interventions in the form of promises of additional monetary policy), the entire financial system’s risk profile becomes skewed.

Stocks (both developed and emerging), commodities, corporate bonds, muni bonds… EVERYTHING was skewed based on the fact that the sovereign bond market was pricing risk based on Central Bank policy rather than economic reality.

We’ve already gotten a taste of what happens when asset classes finally “adjust” to underlying “demand” with the commodity markets: having operated based on Central Bank money printing for five years, they then wiped out ALL of those gains in six months as they adjusted to the economic realities of a weak global economy.

Developed stock markets have yet to make a similar adjustment, but they will… and when they do, it will be a DOOZY.

Smart investors are preparing now.

Private Wealth Advisory subscribers are already profiting from the markets, having just closed THREE more winners yesterday, bringing us to a FORTY THREE trade winning streak…

What is Private Wealth Advisory?

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter that can help you  profit from the markets. Every week you get pages of high quality editorial presenting market conditions and outlining the best trades to make to profit from them.

It is the only newsletter to have closed 72 consecutive winning trades in a 12 month period (ZERO losers during that time). And we just began another winning streak last year, already racking up 43 straight winners.

And we’ve only closed ONE loser in the last FOURTEEN MONTHS.

You can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days (1 month) for just $0.98 cents.

However, this offer will be expiring tomorrow at midnight. I cannot maintain a track record of over a YEAR of straight winners with thousands and thousands of investors following these recommendations.

To take out a $0.98 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory… and lock in one of the few remaining slots….

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

A major long-term momentum indicator is flashing, “sell.”

Based on the historical significance of this indicator we may be putting in a top and possibly THE top for the bull market that began 2009.

The indicator concerns the monthly moving average convergence divergence or MACD.

For those of you who like technical analysis, this indicator is formed by two interweaving lines.

The first line (usually black on the chart) is formed by subtracting the 26-month exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-month EMA.

So if the 26-month EMA is 12 and 12-month EMA is 10, the black line would be at 2 for that particular day.

The second line (usually red on the chart) is formed by the 9-month exponential moving average.

The “signals” come when the two lines connect:

1. Anytime the black line breaks above the red line, it triggers a “buy” signal.

2. Anytime the black line breaks below the red line, it triggers a “sell” signal.

“Sell” signals usually coincide with market tops forming. They also trigger when bull markets END.

———————————————————————–

The Opportunity to Make Triple If Not QUADRUPLE Digit Gain is Here

The largest investor fortunes in history were made during crises.

For that reason, we’ve launched a special options trading service designed specifically to profit from the coming crisis.

It’s called THE CRISIS TRADER and already it’s locking in triple digit winners including gains of 151%, 182%, 261% and even 436%!

And the REAL crisis hasn’t even started yet!

We have an success rate of 72%(meaning you make money on more than 7 out of 10 trades)…and thanks to careful risk control, we’re outperforming the S&P 500 by over 50%!

Our next trade is going out shortly… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

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———————————————————————–

I’ve labeled the “sell” signals on the monthly chart of the S&P 500 below. We are using the monthly chart because we’re most concerned with timing when a multi-year bull market ends, NOT intermediate swings in price.

As you can see, this signal has been fairly accurate for picking tops.

Of course it’s more of an art than a science when it comes to timing the end of a bull market (two of the “sell” signals hit on short-term tops in 1998 and 2011, as opposed to the ultimate market tops which came later).

However, it is worth noting that even during those periods in which “sell” signals only coincided with temporary tops (1998 and 2011), BOTH times stocks staged a dramatic collapse before beginning their next leg up.

In 1998, when the “sell” signal triggered, stocks dropped nearly 20%.

In 2011, when the “sell” signal triggered, stocks fell 17% and the Fed announced Operation Twist to try and prop the markets up.

Moreover, the other times that this indicator registered a “sell signal” (the times when it coincided with THE top for stocks) the markets fell 50% and 57% respectively.

So the fact a “sell” signal is hitting now is of massive importance. It tells us that momentum is falling and we can expect a sizable correction in stocks at the very least and a Crash at the very worst.

Smart investors are preparing now.

Private Wealth Advisory subscribers are already profiting from the markets, having just closed THREE more winners yesterday, bringing us to a FORTY THREE trade winning streak…

What is Private Wealth Advisory?

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter that can help you  profit from the markets. Every week you get pages of high quality editorial presenting market conditions and outlining the best trades to make to profit from them.

It is the only newsletter to have closed 72 consecutive winning trades in a 12 month period (ZERO losers during that time). And we just began another winning streak last year, already racking up 43 straight winners.

And we’ve only closed ONE loser in the last FOURTEEN MONTHS.

You can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days (1 month) for just $0.98 cents.

However, this offer will be expiring tomorrow at midnight. I cannot maintain a track record of over a YEAR of straight winners with thousands and thousands of investors following these recommendations.

To take out a $0.98 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory… and lock in one of the few remaining slots….

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth.

Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic growth… money that has set the stage for another stock market crash.

Consider the measures of GDP growth in the US for instance.

The mainstream media likes to present the “official” GDP numbers as though they are gospel… but the reality is that the number you hear in the press is not even close to accurate.

One of the simplest means of hiding the real economic collapse is to use a bogus measure for inflation. If GDP growth is 10%, and inflation is 10%, then real GDP growth is 0%.

But what if GDP growth is 10%, real inflation is 10%, but you claim inflation is just 6%?

Boom! You can promote GDP growth of 4% to support your claim that printing trillions of dollars has boosted the economy.

To remove this accounting gimmick, you can use Nominal GDP and look at the rate of growth from a year ago. Doing this presents a VERY different view of the economy: one of economic collapse, not growth. I’ve circled periods in which the current level of “growth” occurred in the past.

———————————————————————–

The Opportunity to Make Triple If Not QUADRUPLE Digit Gain is Here

The largest investor fortunes in history were made during crises.

For that reason, we’ve launched a special options trading service designed specifically to profit from the coming crisis.

It’s called THE CRISIS TRADER and already it’s locking in triple digit winners including gains of 151%, 182%, 261% and even 436%!

And the REAL crisis hasn’t even started yet!

We have an success rate of 72%(meaning you make money on more than 7 out of 10 trades)…and thanks to careful risk control, we’re outperforming the S&P 500 by over 50%!

Our next trade is going out shortly… you can get it and THREE others for just 99 cents.

To take out a $0.99, 30 day trial subscription to THE CRISIS TRADER...

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

———————————————————————–

As you can see, the “recovery” of the last six years has largely involved a “growth” rate that was closely associated with recessions over the last 30 years. At best the US economy has been flatlining. At worst we’ve had bouts of economic collapse comparable to a recession.

Also, note that the previous periods in which we’ve experienced this rate of economic collapse have been associated with stock market crashes.

The media can try to hide reality all it wants. But an economic collapse is here. It will trigger another stock market crash just as it did in the early ’90s, the Tech Bubble, and the Housing Bubble. And this time Central Banks won’t be able to stop it: they’ve used up all of their ammo in the last six years trying to create  recovery.

Smart investors are preparing now.

Private Wealth Advisory subscribers are already profiting from the markets, having just closed THREE more winners yesterday, bringing us to a FORTY THREE trade winning streak…

What is Private Wealth Advisory?

Private Wealth Advisory is a WEEKLY investment newsletter that can help you  profit from the markets. Every week you get pages of high quality editorial presenting market conditions and outlining the best trades to make to profit from them.

It is the only newsletter to have closed 72 consecutive winning trades in a 12 month period (ZERO losers during that time). And we just began another winning streak last year, already racking up 43 straight winners.

And we’ve only closed ONE loser in the last FOURTEEN MONTHS.

You can try Private Wealth Advisory for 30 days (1 month) for just $0.98 cents.

However, this offer will be expiring tomorrow at midnight. I cannot maintain a track record of over a YEAR of straight winners with thousands and thousands of investors following these recommendations.

To take out a $0.98 30-day trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory… and lock in one of the few remaining slots….

CLICK HERE NOW!

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

As I warned last week… it’s very likely that the
Bull Market in stocks is over.

Stocks have broken their bull market trendline.
Not only that, but they’ve been rejected by this line
TWICE, indicating that the momentum is GONE.

The next move will be SHARPLY DOWN.

Indeed, the breakdown is actually MUCH bigger than most investors
realize. We’ve actually broken THE bull market line that goes all
the way back to 2009!

If you are not preparing for a bear market in stocks, you
NEED to do so NOW.

I can show you how.

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winners!

WE HAVEN’T
CLOSED A SINGLE LOSING
TRADE IN 14 MONTHS!

And when this collapse accelerates we’ll be seeing
even MORE winners. We just opened a new trade
to profit from what’s happening in the markets yesterday.

Already it’s soaring higher.

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30 day trial to Private
Wealth Advisory.

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just drop us a line during the first 30 days and we’ll
cancel it for you without charging ANOTHER RED CENT.

I know you’ll stay with us though. Our track record
is the best in the industry. Which is why less than 5%
of all subscribers choose to cancel.

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Advisory…

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Here Now!

Phoenix Capital Research

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation.

Throughout the last six years, there has been a sense of coordination between the Fed and ECB. This was evident both in terms of where capital went as well as how it was delivered via monetary policy.

For instance, when the Fed released its discount window documents in 2011, it became clear that most of the funds from QE 2 actually went to foreign banks located in the EU.

Similarly, when the EU banking system was close to imploding in 2012, the Fed coordinated with the ECB to announce QE 3 in an effort to prop up the EU banking system and calm overseas jitters to aid the Obama administration in its re-election campaign.

In short, from 2008 to 20414, the Fed and ECB worked together.

However, at some point this relationship was set to fracture. True, global Central Banks want to work together to maintain stability… but when every Central Bank is engaged in the competitive devaluation of its currency, at some point the relationship between Central Banks would become fractured as they individually had to choose to aid themselves over each other.

That point is today…

———————————————————————–

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Over the same time period, the S&P 500 is up less than 2%.

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———————————————————————–

The Euro comprises 56% of the basket of currencies against which the US Dollar is valued. As such, the Euro and the Dollar have a unique relationship in which whatever happens to the one will have an outsized impact on the other.

This relationship first began to run off the rails in June 2014 when the ECB cut interest rates to negative. Before this, the interest rate differential between the Euro and the US Dollar was just 0.25% (the US Dollar was yielding 0.25% while the deposit rate on the Euro was at exactly zero).

While significant, the interest rate differential was not enough to kick off a complete flight of capital from the Euro to the US Dollar. However, when the ECB launched NIRP, cutting its deposit rate to negative 0.1%, the rate differential (now 0.35%) and punitive qualities of NIRP (it actually cost money to park capital in the Euro) resulted in vast quantities of capital fleeing Euros and moving into the US Dollar.

Soon after, the US Dollar erupted higher, breaking out of a multiyear triangle pattern and soaring over 25% in a matter of nine months.

To put this into perspective, this move was larger in scope than the “flight to safety” that occurred in 2008 when everyone thought the world was ending.

The reason this is problematic?

There are over $9 trillion in borrowed US Dollars sloshing around the financial system. And much of it is parked in assets that are denominated in emerging market currencies (the very currencies that have imploded as the US Dollar rallied).

This is the US Dollar carry trade… and it is larger in scope that the economies of Germany and Japan… combined.

In short, when the ECB cut rates to negative, the US Dollar carry trade began to blow up. The situation only worsened when the ECB cut rates even further into negative territory in September 2014 and again last week bringing the rate differential between the US Dollar and Euro to 0.55%.

Now, the Fed is talking of raising interest rates. Even a symbolic rate hike to 0.3% or 0.5% could trigger a complete implosion of the $9 trillion US Dollar carry trade.

If you think this is just fear mongering, you’re mistaken. The Treasury Dept. issued emergency kits to employees a few months ago in anticipation of systemic volatility during the rate hike. Similarly, the Fed boosted the size of its market operations department in Chicago case the NY Fed loses control of the system when rates increase.

In short, we could very well be on the eve of another systemic crisis. The financial elites have been preparing for this for months.

If you’re an investor who wants to increase your wealth dramatically, then you NEED to take out a trial subscription to our paid premium investment newsletter Private Wealth Advisory.

Private Wealth Advisory. is a WEEKLY investment newsletter with an incredible track record.

To whit, we just closed out two new double digit winners yesterday, bringing us to 40 straight winning trades over the last 12 months.

That correct, during the last year, we’ve not closed a SINGLE LOSER.

And if you go back further, 46 of our last 47 trades have made money.

In fact, I’m so confident in my ability to pick winning investments that I’ll give you 30 days to try out Private Wealth Advisory for just 98 CENTS.

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Best Regards

Graham Summers

Phoenix Capital Research

Yesterday, the recession we predicted as much as six months ago was formally noted in the ISM data, with November’s ISM coming in at sub-50.

I’d been noting to clients since at least May that numerous data points had flashed “recession” for the US economy. Among the list of warnings signs were severe declines in corporate profits, Regional Manufacturing Surveys and Merchant Wholesaler Sales.

However, until yesterday, ISM had remained above 50. And so the financial media clung to that data point as indicating that the US economy continued to expand.

Not anymore.

An ISM below 50 indicates a recession. However, we probably won’t hear a formal announcement that the US is in recession until mid-2016 (remember that we were well into the 2008 Crisis before the Feds revealed that the US had entered a recession back in late 2007).

And the Federal Reserve is about to hike interest rates.

This is only going to accelerate the economic downturn. Indeed, we fully believe that the global economy is already contracting, with China, Japan, and now the US in technical recession.

In China, the official growth numbers suggest GDP is growing by 7.3%, however… China’s electricity consumption suggests GDP growth is 3% at best.

China’s rail freight volume for the first eight months of 2015 fell 10.1% from the comparable period in 2014.

China’s monthly Caixin PMI reading has fallen to levels not seen since March 2009: when everyone thought the world was ending.

Let’s now turn to Japan, where the largest QE program in history was launched in April 2013, only to be increased in October 2014. This was a Keynesian dream come true: an amount of spending equal to 25% of GDP.

Since that time, Japan experienced an uptick in economic growth for two quarters before turning back down again. Which brings us to today.

Japan’s GDP shrank at an annualized pace of 1.2% in 2Q15. The country is now back in technical recession. Household spending fell 2.4% in October Year over Year (YoY). Analysts had forecast growth of 0.1%.

So, the world’s three largest economies, the US, China and Japan are all approaching if not already in recession. These countries represent nearly a third (29%) of global GDP.

Take note, the global economy is contracting again. And this is going to result in another stock market crash.

Smart investors are preparing now. The August-September correction was just a warm up. The REAL drop is coming shortly.

We just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The bounce in stocks has reached ludicrous proportions.

The S&P 500 has completely disconnected from most risk assets, driven by the usual manipulation during options expiration week, performance gaming by hedge funds before end of the month results are posted, and short covering.

Stocks are now disconnected from leveraged loans:

High yields bonds:

Copper, the commodity with a PhD in economics:

Oil:

Etc.

In simple terms, virtually no other asset class on the planet is confirming the move higher in the S&P 500. This has all the hallmarks of a dead cat bounce. What’s coming won’t be pretty.

Smart investors are preparing now. The August-September correction was just a warm up. The REAL drop is coming shortly.

We just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research