Monthly Archive:: December 2015

Will 2016 Bring Another 2008-Type Crash? Pt. 1

The world is lurching towards another Crash. Japan, which has been ground zero for Keynesian insanity, is back in technical recession. This comes after the Bank of Japan launched the single largest QE program in history: a QE program equal to 25% of GDP launched in April 2013. This program bought an uptick in economic

The Fed’s Academic-Based Theories Are Creating a BRUTAL Economic Reality

One of the most frustrating aspects of today’s financial system is the fact that the Fed is being lead by lifelong academics with no real world banking or business experience. Consider the cases of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. Neither of these individuals has ever created a job based on generating sales of any kind.

Deflation is Back… Will It Lead to Another Crash?

Central Bankers are flummoxed. Having cut interest rates over 600 times since 2009 (and printed over $15 trillion), they’ve yet to generate the expected economic growth. Despite these failures, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan are currently engaging massive QE programs. The Fed is the only major Central Bank not rapidly expanding its balance

Take Note: Globally Bull Markets Are Ending

Central Banks are beginning to lose control. Indeed, despite recent promises to do more by the Bank of Japan, the Nikkei is rapidly losing momentum. In Europe, the situation is worse. There the ECB has already cut interest rates to negative THREE times, launched QE and already extended said QE. Still, EU stocks are rolling

The Fed Rate Hike Will Trigger a $9 Trillion Meltdown

Yesterday, the Fed has hiked interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. It is the first rate hike in 10 years. And it is now clear that the Fed is not only behind the ball in terms of raising rates… but that it has now primed the financial system for another 2008-type meltdown. By way of

Stocks Could HALVE Based on the True State of the Economy

Since 2009, the global markets have been largely steered by Central Bank policy, NOT organic economic growth. With the debt-based monetary system dangerously close to shutting down during the 2008 meltdown, Central Banks stepped in as the “buyers of last resort” to provide a backstop to the system. The problem is that the individuals running

The Fuse on the Global Debt Bomb Has Just Been Lit

The global bond bubble has begun bursting. This process will not be fast by any means. Central Banks and the political elite will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo, even if this means breaking the law (freezing bank accounts or funds to stop withdrawals) or closing down the markets (the Dow was

Stocks Will Fall Anywhere From 17%-50% Depending on the Fed’s Response

A major long-term momentum indicator is flashing, “sell.” Based on the historical significance of this indicator we may be putting in a top and possibly THE top for the bull market that began 2009. The indicator concerns the monthly moving average convergence divergence or MACD. For those of you who like technical analysis, this indicator

The Coming Economic Collapse Will Crash Stocks

In 2008, the world experienced the worst economic collapse in 80+ years. This collapse triggered a stock market crash that erased $30 trillion in wealth. Since that time, collectively Central Banks have cut interest rates over 600 times and have printed over $15 trillion in new money… money that has failed to generate sustained economic

Buckle Up, It’s Very Likely the Bull Market in Stocks is Over

As I warned last week… it’s very likely that the Bull Market in stocks is over. Stocks have broken their bull market trendline. Not only that, but they’ve been rejected by this line TWICE, indicating that the momentum is GONE. The next move will be SHARPLY DOWN. Indeed, the breakdown is actually MUCH bigger than

Wake Up World, Draghi’s Bazooka is Full of Blanks

European Central Bank (ECB) head Mario Draghi is once again hoping that verbal intervention will accomplish what monetary intervention has failed to do. Back in 2012, the EU banking system was on the verge of collapse. At that time, various European banks were lurching towards insolvency as the senior most-asset on their balance sheets (EU

The Fed is About to Trigger a $9 Trillion Debt Implosion

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) have created a very dangerous situation. Throughout the last six years, there has been a sense of coordination between the Fed and ECB. This was evident both in terms of where capital went as well as how it was delivered via monetary policy. For instance,

Is the Bull Market Over? These Charts Say So

For weeks we have been warning not to trust the bounce in stocks. We were worried that a Bear Market had begun. The most critical item we were concerned with was the fact that the S&P 500, despite its massive bounce, had failed to regain its former trendline. This would suggest a Bear Market was

Six Horrifying Facts of the Financial System Today

For six years, the world has operated under a complete delusion that Central Banks somehow fixed the 2008 Crisis. All of the arguments claiming this defied common sense. A 5th grader would tell you that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. If the below chart was a problem BEFORE 2008… there

Recessions in US, China and Japan (is a stock market crash coming?)

Yesterday, the recession we predicted as much as six months ago was formally noted in the ISM data, with November’s ISM coming in at sub-50. I’d been noting to clients since at least May that numerous data points had flashed “recession” for the US economy. Among the list of warnings signs were severe declines in

Is the Next Leg Down About to Begin For Stocks?

The bounce in stocks has reached ludicrous proportions. The S&P 500 has completely disconnected from most risk assets, driven by the usual manipulation during options expiration week, performance gaming by hedge funds before end of the month results are posted, and short covering. Stocks are now disconnected from leveraged loans: High yields bonds: Copper, the
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