Month: June 2018

Time for a pullback.

As a brief refresher on our track record thus far in 2018, in February and early March when the S&P 500 was at 2770, we warned that stocks would revisit the lows.

Then in late March/ early April when the S&P 500 was at 2,600, we said the bottom was in and that we would soon breakout to the upside.

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That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

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We’re now calling for a correction. Nothing goes straight up or straight down in the markets, and stocks are EXTREMELY overbought today. The pullback is to a target zone around 2,700.

This is needed to change sentiment around. Once we start seeing the permabears and doom/gloom crowd out claiming that “the next collapse is here” it’ll be time to go long again in preparation for the final run to new highs (3,000 on the S&P 500).

The financial media will find some “story” to justify this move. It’ll probably be something like “emerging market currencies are imploding” or “the G7 meeting was a disaster and President Trump is now isolated” but the reality is that the market is simply overbought and needs to shake out the “hot money”/ momentum players.

Once this move is over, we will crash up in a blow off top as inflation rips through the financial system.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

Time for a pullback.

As a brief refresher on our track record thus far in 2018, in February and early March when the S&P 500 was at 2770, we warned that stocks would revisit the lows.

Then in late March/ early April when the S&P 500 was at 2,600, we said the bottom was in and that we would soon breakout to the upside.

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

We’re now calling for a correction. Nothing goes straight up or straight down in the markets, and stocks are EXTREMELY overbought today. The pullback is to a target zone around 2,700.

This is needed to change sentiment around. Once we start seeing the permabears and doom/gloom crowd out claiming that “the next collapse is here” it’ll be time to go long again in preparation for the final run to new highs (3,000 on the S&P 500).

The financial media will find some “story” to justify this move. It’ll probably be something like “emerging market currencies are imploding” or “the G7 meeting was a disaster and President Trump is now isolated” but the reality is that the market is simply overbought and needs to shake out the “hot money”/ momentum players.

Once this move is over, we will crash up in a blow off top as inflation rips through the financial system.

This is the “White Swan” I’ve been forecasting since end of March 2018. It will mark THE blow-off top for the markets. Yes, I mean THE top will be in for years to come.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

The Fed has gone dovish. In fact, it’s going to allow inflation to explode higher.

That, in of itself, is significant… to understand why, we first need to acknowledge how the Fed currently operates to control risk in the financial system.

The Fed currently has two primary tools for controlling the financial system. They are:

1) The size of its balance sheet (via Quantitative Easing, or QE, and Quantitative Tightening, or QT, programs)

And …

2) The Fed Funds Rate which controls the prices of “money” in the system.

Regarding #1, after engaging off and on in QE for six years (2008-2014), the Fed has only been tapering QE for six months and it’s already in trouble.

The fact the Fed is already “pumping the brakes” despite having shrunken its balance sheet a mere $126 billion (less than 3% of its gargantuan $4.3 TRILLION balance sheet) is telling.

`

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Regarding #2, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds Target rate six times from 0.15% to its current level of 1.5%-1.75%. While this DOES seem significant, it is worth noting that these are usually the levels to which the Fed CUTs rates during a recession/ crisis.

Put another way, having kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at ZERO for seven years (’08-’15), even after some 2+ years of tightening, rates remain at levels that USUALLY mark EXTREMELY easy conditions.

To conclude… both of the Fed’s primary tools for controlling the financial system have barely budged towards normalization…  and the Fed is already going dovish. Indeed, the Fed opened the door to an inflationary “overshoot” of its 2% inflation target in last month’s FOMC release!

Let me be blunt… The Fed will ALWAYS understate things because its primary role is to maintain financial stability. So if the Fed is even hinting at permitting an inflationary overshoot, it’s because the Fed knows this is unavoidable.

The $USD has already figured this out and is rolling over on its way to a NEW lows.

And this move is going to send risk assets, especially inflation/ reflation trades THROUGH THE ROOF.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

The Fed has gone dovish. In fact, it’s going to allow inflation to explode higher.

That, in of itself, is significant… to understand why, we first need to acknowledge how the Fed currently operates to control risk in the financial system.

The Fed currently has two primary tools for controlling the financial system. They are:

1) The size of its balance sheet (via Quantitative Easing, or QE, and Quantitative Tightening, or QT, programs)

And …

2) The Fed Funds Rate which controls the prices of “money” in the system.

Regarding #1, after engaging off and on in QE for six years (2008-2014), the Fed has only been tapering QE for six months and it’s already in trouble.

The fact the Fed is already “pumping the brakes” despite having shrunken its balance sheet a mere $126 billion (less than 3% of its gargantuan $4.3 TRILLION balance sheet) is telling.

`

—————————————————————-

That Makes NINE Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in NINE double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 41% this year alone.

In fact, we haven’t had a losing trade APRIL 2018.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Regarding #2, the Fed has raised the Fed Funds Target rate six times from 0.15% to its current level of 1.5%-1.75%. While this DOES seem significant, it is worth noting that these are usually the levels to which the Fed CUTs rates during a recession/ crisis.

Put another way, having kept the Fed Funds Target Rate at ZERO for seven years (’08-’15), even after some 2+ years of tightening, rates remain at levels that USUALLY mark EXTREMELY easy conditions.

To conclude… both of the Fed’s primary tools for controlling the financial system have barely budged towards normalization…  and the Fed is already going dovish. Indeed, the Fed opened the door to an inflationary “overshoot” of its 2% inflation target in last month’s FOMC release!

Let me be blunt… The Fed will ALWAYS understate things because its primary role is to maintain financial stability. So if the Fed is even hinting at permitting an inflationary overshoot, it’s because the Fed knows this is unavoidable.

The $USD has already figured this out and is rolling over on its way to a NEW lows.

And this move is going to send risk assets, especially inflation/ reflation trades THROUGH THE ROOF.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

It never fails.

Any time the $USD begins to rally, even a little bit, the deflationists come out in full force proclaiming that it’s the start of some major bull market that will blow up the financial system.

Take this latest bounce in the $USD.

Having staged one of the worst annual returns in years in 2017 (down over 14%), the $USD was BEYOND oversold. Throw in the fact that traders were RECORD short the $USD and record long the Euro, and the stage was set for a $USD bounce.

That bounce is now OVER. The $USD has slammed into major resistance. And anyone who thinks that the US currency is going to explode higher when the ECB is about to ends its QE program needs their head examined.

—————————————————————-

That Makes SEVEN Straight Double Digit Winners!

Our options trading system is on a HOT streak, having locked in EIGHT double digit winners in the last four weeks.

Don’t believe me?

You can see EVERY trade we’ve made this year HERE.

As a result we’re now up 43% this year alone.

Best of all, this system couldn’t be easier: we only trade one trade, once per week… and we’re CRUSHING the market.

To join us today, take out a 60 day trial subscription.

If you’re not seeing SERIOUS returns within the first 60 days, we’ll issue a full refund, NO QUESTIONS ASKED.

To take out a trial subscription…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

—————————————————————-

Instead, the next move will be the $USD breaking down to the mid-80s.

And this move is going to send risk assets, especially inflation/ reflation trades THROUGH THE ROOF.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Let’s talk about inflation.

Inflation enters the economy in stages. It’s not as though the Fed begins to print money and POOF! inflation appears. It takes time.

The first stage occurs in the manufacturing/ production segment of the economy when you see producers suddenly paying more for the raw goods and commodities they use to manufacture/ produce finished goods.

You can see this development in the chart below. The highlighted periods featured times in which Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods spiked approached record highs.

One or two months or higher Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods is no big deal, but once you’re talking 6-8 months of steadily rising Producer Prices it’s significant. At that point manufacturers/ producers have to start raising the prices of finished goods or face shrinking profit margins.

At that point you move into the second stage of inflation. That didn’t happen in 2008 (the deflationary crisis removed the inflationary stresses). But it did happen in 2011. And it’s happening again now.

When the price of finished goods begins to rise, you’re in stage 2 for inflation. Again, this can be temporary, but if you have multiple months of this, you’re talking about a significant development.

Bear in mind, that phase 2 can happen in different ways. Management at companies don’t just say “raise the price now!” Instead they can do different things such as charge the same amount for less of a finished product/ shrink the size of the container. This is called shrinkflation.

Another strategy is to start using cheaper/ lower quality raw goods (to reduce costs/ quality) while charging the SAME amount for the finished good. This too is inflation as the cost of the SAME item is MORE expensive, though it’s being masked because the QUALITY is LOWER and the price is the same.

You get the general idea.

I’ve marked periods in which “Stage 2” of inflation occurred in the last 10 years on the chart below.

It’s HERE that inflation begins to appear in the economy. However, it doesn’t become a SERIOUS problem until you reach the point at which the price of finished goods remain elevated long enough that people start to demand raises/ higher wages to maintain their living standards.

THAT is Stage 3 for inflation… the inflation that most people think about when they use the word. And it marks when it’s fully seeped into the economy.

We are now hitting this stage.

We hit phase 1 back in mid 2016. We hit phase 2 in early/mid 2017. We are now hitting phase 3.

Average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in April. That pushed the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in April.

Source: Reuters.

You read that correctly… while the CPI and other inflationary measures show inflation only slightly above 2%, WAGES have been rising by over 2.5% year over year for months (since at least January 2018).

Put another way, “INFLATION” as most refer to it, is finally seeping into the economy. By multiple measures it’s already north of 2.5%… and the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve with rates at a mere 1.75%.

This is THE trend going forward for financial markets. And those who are well prepared for it will do extremely well.

Remember, stocks LOVE inflation at first. But that relationship quickly goes south once inflation becomes so aggressive that it eats into profit margins no matter WHAT the company does.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

Let’s talk about inflation.

Inflation enters the economy in stages. It’s not as though the Fed begins to print money and POOF! inflation appears. It takes time.

The first stage occurs in the manufacturing/ production segment of the economy when you see producers suddenly paying more for the raw goods and commodities they use to manufacture/ produce finished goods.

You can see this development in the chart below. The highlighted periods featured times in which Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods spiked approached record highs.

One or two months or higher Producer Prices for commodities or raw goods is no big deal, but once you’re talking 6-8 months of steadily rising Producer Prices it’s significant. At that point manufacturers/ producers have to start raising the prices of finished goods or face shrinking profit margins.

At that point you move into the second stage of inflation. That didn’t happen in 2008 (the deflationary crisis removed the inflationary stresses). But it did happen in 2011. And it’s happening again now.

When the price of finished goods begins to rise, you’re in stage 2 for inflation. Again, this can be temporary, but if you have multiple months of this, you’re talking about a significant development.

Bear in mind, that phase 2 can happen in different ways. Management at companies don’t just say “raise the price now!” Instead they can do different things such as charge the same amount for less of a finished product/ shrink the size of the container. This is called shrinkflation.

Another strategy is to start using cheaper/ lower quality raw goods (to reduce costs/ quality) while charging the SAME amount for the finished good. This too is inflation as the cost of the SAME item is MORE expensive, though it’s being masked because the QUALITY is LOWER and the price is the same.

You get the general idea.

I’ve marked periods in which “Stage 2” of inflation occurred in the last 10 years on the chart below.

It’s HERE that inflation begins to appear in the economy. However, it doesn’t become a SERIOUS problem until you reach the point at which the price of finished goods remain elevated long enough that people start to demand raises/ higher wages to maintain their living standards.

THAT is Stage 3 for inflation… the inflaiton that most people think about when they use the word. And it marks when it’s fully seeped into the economy.

We are now hitting this stage.

We hit phase 1 back in mid 2016. We hit phase 2 in early/mid 2017. We are now hitting phase 3.

Average hourly earnings rose eight cents, or 0.3 percent last month after edging up 0.1 percent in April. That pushed the annual increase in average hourly earnings to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent in April.

Source: Reuters.

You read that correctly… while the CPI and other inflationary measures show inflation only slightly above 2%, WAGES have been rising by over 2.5% year over year for months (since at least January 2018).

Put another way, “INFLATION” as most refer to it, is finally seeping into the economy. By multiple measures it’s already north of 2.5%… and the Fed is hopelessly behind the curve with rates at a mere 1.75%.

This is THE trend going forward for financial markets. And those who are well prepared for it will do extremely well.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research