Category Archives: Central Bank Insanity

How Janet Yellen Will Unleash an Inflationary Storm

Posted on by

As I keep stating, the big theme for 2021 will be inflation. And a Biden administration will only accelerate this.

If you doubt me, consider that Biden has picked Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary.

Previously, Yellen ran the San Francisco Fed before eventually rising to be Fed Chair under the Obama administration. Throughout her tenure in these positions, she proved to be someone who LOVED using political reasoning to justify printing more money or easing monetary conditions.

In 2014, soon after taking the helm as Fed chair, Yellen gave a speech in which she stated that the Fed would have done a better job predicting and then navigating the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 if it had maintained more “diversity” in its workforce. She subsequently followed this up by creating the Fed’s first task force to improve the gender and ethnic diversity at the Fed.

Why does this matter?

Because NOWHERE in the original Federal Reserve Act of 1913, nor in its 1977 amendment, is there any mention of ANY of this stuff. The Fed’s job as explicitly stated in the legislature is to use interest rates to insure economic growth with minimal inflation. 

THAT’S IT.

In picking Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary Joe Biden is effectively giving the purse strings for the Republic to a social justice warrior: someone who believes that social justice issues should guide monetary policy.

In plain terms, all of this means MORE MONEY PRINTING.

Think about it… what precisely could the Treasury do about diversity? The Treasury is responsible for printing money and moving it around. So, if the Treasury decides to take on political projects with the intention of making the economy “fair” all it really means is that the Treasury will be funneling more money into the economy.

Remember, the Treasury created the credit facilities through which the Fed bailed out the entire financial system in March 2020. It was through these credit facilities that the Fed began buying:

1)    Municipal bonds.

2)    Corporate bonds.

3)    Corporate bond ETFs.

4)    Asset backed securities, including assets backed by money market funds, auto loans, student loans, and certificates of deposit.

As such, the Treasury represents the conduit through which the Fed funnels record stimulus into the financial system.

As I’ve stated previously, the Fed spent $3 trillion between 2008 and 2016 fighting the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The Fed spent that same amount in seven months in 2020.

It was only able to do this legally by using the Treasury as a conduit. And we also need to remember, that the Treasury was responsible for the dispensation of the $2 trillion in stimulus for the CARES act in 2020.

And Joe Biden has just picked Janet Yellen to run this organization: a career academic who has never worked in the private sector and who strongly believes that she should use her position to combat political issues such as diversity and climate change. 

Again, all of this means MORE money printing is coming to the U.S.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 49 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

This is the Single Most Important Item for Investors Going Forward

Posted on by

As we wrap up 2020 and move into 2021, the world faces multiple systemically important issues.

The biggest ones are:

●      Will the COVID-19 vaccine work?

●      Will the U.S. economy recover to where it was pre-COVID-19?

●      Will Donald Trump leave the White House quietly or will the U.S. more into greater political turmoil?

How these issues will be resolved remains to be seen. So we are in very uncertain times in the world.

The ONLY thing we DO know for certain is that EVERY major problem going forward is going to be dealt with by printing money.

And because for the first time in decades MUCH of this money will actually funnel directly into the actual economy, HOT inflation will finally ignite.

The markets have already begun to discount this.

The Fed’s own research has stated that the single best predictor of future inflation is FOOD inflation. 

I realize this sounds odd. After all, publicly, the Fed states that its preferred measures of inflation are the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE).

And yet, the Fed’s OWN RESEARCH has shown that these metrics do a horrible job of predicting future inflation. Not only that, but the Fed has KNOWN this since 2001!

In a little-known paper published back in 2001, Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all…

St Louis Fed

I want you to focus on these two admissions:

1)    The Fed has admitted that its official inflation measures do not accurately predict future inflation. 

2)    The Fed admitted that FOOD prices are a much better predictor of future inflation. In fact, food prices were a better predictor of inflation than the Fed’s PCE, non-durables goods, transportation services, housing, clothing, energy and more.

With that in mind, take a look at the below table taken directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ website:

Notice that FOOD prices have shown the fastest rise out of all other components over the last 12 months, clocking in at 3.9%. The BLS itself states that:

1)    All six major grocery store food group indexes are UP over the last year.

2)    The increase in prices range from 2.6 percent (fruits and vegetables) to 6.1 percent (meats, poultry fish, and eggs).

3)    The index for food away from home rose 3.9 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase reported for that index in over a DECADE (since May 2009).

If that was not worrisome enough, take a look at what is happening in agricultural commodities (the items that make up food).

What you’re looking at is the 10-year bear market in food prices ENDING. This chart is telling us that higher inflation is coming. And coming soon.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

Those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 56 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Policymakers Will Deal With Any and All Future Problems By Printing More Money

Posted on by

The US is moving towards more lockdowns.

California has already imposed a second round of lockdowns. And yesterday, Mayor De Blasio warned New York City to prepare for a second round of lockdowns. And Joe Biden’s top medical advisor has suggested a full-scale nationwide lockdown of four to six weeks to “control the pandemic.”

Setting aside the politics of these situations, more lockdowns means more economic downturn, more economic downturn means more Fed interventions, and more Fed interventions means more money printing.

Indeed, if anything has become clear in 2020, it’s that policymakers will deal with any and all problems, both health and economic, by printing money.

This is why the $USD has been dropping like a stone since March, erasing two year’s worth of gains in the span of nine months.

It’s also why inflation is now ripping through the financial system. Take a look at what copper, steel and gold are doing and you’ll see assets exploding out of multi-year downtrends.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

This is Where the BIG Money Will Be Made in 2021

Posted on by

The US is moving towards more lockdowns.

California has already imposed a second round of lockdowns. And yesterday, Mayor De Blasio warned New York City to prepare for a second round of lockdowns. And Joe Biden’s top medical advisor has suggested a full-scale nationwide lockdown of four to six weeks to “control the pandemic.”

Setting aside the politics of these situations, more lockdowns means more economic downturn, more economic downturn means more Fed interventions, and more Fed interventions means more money printing.

Indeed, if anything has become clear in 2020, it’s that policymakers will deal with any and all problems, both health and economic, by printing money.

This is why the $USD has been dropping like a stone since March, erasing two year’s worth of gains in the span of nine months.

It’s also why inflation is now ripping through the financial system. Take a look at what copper, steel and gold are doing and you’ll see assets exploding out of multi-year downtrends.

This is the BIG theme for 2021 no matter what else may come: more money printing, more inflation, and more explosive moves in inflationary assets.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Joe Biden Is Packing His Administration With Money Printers

Posted on by

Well, I was wrong.

I had previously written that the election was in the courts and that based on legal precedent, the courts would give President Trump a second term.

The Supreme Court put that notion to rest late on Friday night when it rejected to even hear the case brought by Texas and 18 other states.

It’s pretty staggering if you think about it.

There are sworn affidavits from thousands of poll workers swearing to witnessing fraud. There are vote audits that have turned up fraud. There is statistical analysis that shows fraud. There is historical precedent concerning how key counties and states determine election outcomes that show fraud. 

And yet the courts have all either refused to accept any of this evidence… OR refused to even listen to the cases. It’s pretty incredible when you consider just how many ridiculous lawsuits and court cases are heard at all levels of the judiciary, even the Supreme Court.

There are still several cases outstanding as well as political avenues through which President Trump could secure a second term, but those are all EXTREME and likely not worth delving into at this point.  

At the end of the day, I was wrong. 

I am not in the business of pretending to be psychic, nor do I care for those analysts and pundits who make predictions that don’t prove correct and who then pretend they never made said predictions.

I predicted President Trump would win a second term in the courts. I was wrong. The end.

What matters to us as investors now is how a Biden administration will impact the markets. And by the look of things, the markets love the idea that Biden will packing the Fed and the Treasury with money printers.

The US was already on a trajectory towards hot inflation BEFORE Joe Biden won the election and started enlisting money printers like Janet Yellen to run key positions in his cabinet. Now that we DO have a Biden administration and it is packed with money printers, it’s not a question of IF we get HOT inflation, but WHEN.

On that note, the $USD has continued to break down in a big way. As I write this, it’s dropping like a stone, again. We are now coming up on MAJOR support in the large consolidation pattern that the $USD has been following since 2015.

A breakdown here, would signal a move into HOT inflation.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that gold has ERUPTED to new all-time highs priced in EVERY major currency (Dollars, Euros, Yen and Francs). 

This is THE big theme for 2021. It is global in nature. And those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Graham Eats Humble Pie With Hot Inflation For Dessert

Posted on by

Well, I was wrong.

I had previously written that the election was in the courts and that based on legal precedent, the courts would give President Trump a second term.

The Supreme Court put that notion to rest late on Friday night when it rejected to even hear the case brought by Texas and 18 other states.

It’s pretty staggering if you think about it.

There are sworn affidavits from thousands of poll workers swearing to witnessing fraud. There are vote audits that have turned up fraud. There is statistical analysis that shows fraud. There is historical precedent concerning how key counties and states determine election outcomes that show fraud. 

And yet the courts have all either refused to accept any of this evidence… OR refused to even listen to the cases. It’s pretty incredible when you consider just how many ridiculous lawsuits and court cases are heard at all levels of the judiciary, even the Supreme Court.

There are still several cases outstanding as well as political avenues through which President Trump could secure a second term, but those are all EXTREME and likely not worth delving into at this point.  

At the end of the day, I was wrong. 

I am not in the business of pretending to be psychic, nor do I care for those analysts and pundits who make predictions that don’t prove correct and who then pretend they never made said predictions.

I predicted President Trump would win a second term in the courts. I was wrong. The end.

What matters to us as investors now is how a Biden administration will impact the markets. And by the look of things, the markets love the idea that Biden will packing the Fed and the Treasury with money printers.

The US was already on a trajectory towards hot inflation BEFORE Joe Biden won the election and started enlisting money printers like Janet Yellen to run key positions in his cabinet. Now that we DO have a Biden administration and it is packed with money printers, it’s not a question of IF we get HOT inflation, but WHEN.

On that note, the $USD has continued to break down in a big way. As I write this, it’s dropping like a stone, again. We are now coming up on MAJOR support in the large consolidation pattern that the $USD has been following since 2015.

A breakdown here, would signal a move into HOT inflation.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that gold has ERUPTED to new all-time highs priced in EVERY major currency (Dollars, Euros, Yen and Francs). 

This is THE big theme for 2021. It is global in nature. And those investors who are well positioned to profit from it could see literal fortunes.

On that note, we just published a Special Investment Report concerning FIVE secret investments you can use to make inflation pay you as it rips through the financial system in the months ahead.

The report is titled Survive the Inflationary Storm. And it explains in very simply terms how to make inflation PAY YOU.

We are making just 100 copies available to the public.

As I write this there are just 79 left.

To pick up yours, swing by:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/inflationstorm.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Central Banks Are Going “All In” on Creating the Mother of All Bubbles

Posted on by

Stocks hit a new all-time high yesterday.

The media is trying to attribute this move to Joe Biden picking various people for his cabinet. However, as I’ve stated many times before, Joe Biden has yet to actually win the election. Moreover, the market moves are occurring at totally different times from the announcements of the Biden campaign. So, you can forget this narrative.

What is pushing the market higher?


The Fed and other central banks.

The Fed’s balance sheet exploded by over $60 billion this week, pushing it to new all-time highs of $7.2 trillion.

Chart, line chart Description automatically generated

All told, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $3.1 trillion this year.

To put that into perspective, in response to the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by this same amount over the course of FIVE YEARS from 2008 to… 2013.

Put another way, it took the Fed FIVE YEARS to spend the same amount of money during the worst financial crisis and recession in 80 years. This time around, the Fed spent it in EIGHT MONTHS. 

If you want a reason for stocks exploding to new all-time highs over and over again, it’s this TSUNAMI of liquidity the Fed has provided.

And the Fed is not the only one.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) balance sheet ALSO hit a new-all time high this week.

Forget Joe Biden or Donald Trump, globally central banks and governments have spent $14 TRILLION this year. We’re talking about an amount of money equal to the GDPs of China (the 2nd largest economy in the world).

That money has to go somewhere. And much of it has gone into stocks, where it is creating the mother of all bubbles.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s coming down the pike when the Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Why the S&P 500 is Going to 6,000+

Posted on by

Jerome Powell is going to create the mother of all bubbles.

The first sign of this came in 2018 when Powell used his first Jackson Hole symposium to glorify former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s economic insights and “considerable fortitude” in not raising interest rates back in the late ‘90s.

Yes, Powell believed Greenspan was a genius for not raising rates in the late’ 90s. If you don’t remember what stocks did at that time, it looked like this:

The below quote is quite revealing. And looking back, this speech was a hint of things to come.

The FOMC thus avoided the Great-Inflation-era mistake of overemphasizing imprecise estimates of the stars. Under Chairman Greenspan’s leadership, the Committee converged on a risk-management strategy that can be distilled into a simple request: Let’s wait one more meeting; if there are clearer signs of inflation, we will commence tightening.13 Meeting after meeting, the Committee held off on rate increases while believing that signs of rising inflation would soon appear. And meeting after meeting, inflation gradually declined.

Source: Federal Reserve

In the 12-18 months following this speech, Jerome Powell became one of the biggest monetary easers in history, cutting interest rates while also launching multiple repo programs through which the Fed funneled hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system despite any indications of a recession. 

Bear in mind, this was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Once COVID-19 hit, Powell would unleashed a tsunami of liquidity that would make even Alan Greenspan blush.

We’ve reviewed the Fed’s recent monetary easing multiple times in recent weeks. However, given the magnitude of what the Fed is about to announce, it’s worth repeating.

To combat the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed:

  • Made its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
  • Increased the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include: everything from municipal bonds to corporate junk bonds.
  • Expanded its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
  • Expanded its commercial paper QE program.
  • Introduced a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
  • Began a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
  • Lowered the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).

At its peak in March 2020, the Fed was pumping $125 billion into the market every day.

Things have since calmed down as stocks rocketed to all-time highs. However, Powell’s recent statements clearly indicate he doesn’t think this is enough.

Indeed, during recent press conferences Powell’s Fed has maintained that the Fed will keep interest rates at ZERO through 2023.

Yes, 2023.

What do you think this is going to do to stocks? The last time the Fed held rates at ZERO for years was from 2008-2015. During that time, the S&P 500 nearly TRIPLED.

Currently stocks are up 50% from the lows. If they were to follow a similar move, we’d see the mother of all bubbles with the S&P 500 rising to over 6,000.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

With that in mind, we’ve just published an investment report titled Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles.

It outlines what the Fed is doing, why it’s doing it, and a unique investment that could easily triple as the Fed unleashes a tsunami of liquidity pushing stocks to nosebleed levels.

The last time the Fed began an easing cycle, this investment rose over 1,439%. And this time around we could see similar gains.

We are making only 100 copies of this report available to the general public,

To pick up your copy, go to:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MOAB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed is Going to Create the Mother Of All Bubbles

Posted on by

Jerome Powell is going to create the mother of all bubbles.

The first sign of this came in 2018 when Powell used his first Jackson Hole symposium to glorify former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s economic insights and “considerable fortitude” in not raising interest rates back in the late ‘90s.

Yes, Powell believed Greenspan was a genius for not raising rates in the late’ 90s. If you don’t remember what stocks did at that time, it looked like this:

The below quote is quite revealing. And looking back, this speech was a hint of things to come.

The FOMC thus avoided the Great-Inflation-era mistake of overemphasizing imprecise estimates of the stars. Under Chairman Greenspan’s leadership, the Committee converged on a risk-management strategy that can be distilled into a simple request: Let’s wait one more meeting; if there are clearer signs of inflation, we will commence tightening.13 Meeting after meeting, the Committee held off on rate increases while believing that signs of rising inflation would soon appear. And meeting after meeting, inflation gradually declined.

Source: Federal Reserve

In the 12-18 months following this speech, Jerome Powell became one of the biggest monetary easers in history, cutting interest rates while also launching multiple repo programs through which the Fed funneled hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system despite any indications of a recession. 

Bear in mind, this was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Once COVID-19 hit, Powell would unleashed a tsunami of liquidity that would make even Alan Greenspan blush.

We’ve reviewed the Fed’s recent monetary easing multiple times in recent weeks. However, given the magnitude of what the Fed is about to announce, it’s worth repeating.

To combat the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed:

  • Made its quantitative easing (QE) program “unlimited.” meaning it would simply print money and buy assets ad infinitum.
  • Increased the scope of its QE program from simply buying U.S. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities to include: everything from municipal bonds to corporate junk bonds.
  • Expanded its money market QE to also include a “wider range of securities” including certificates of deposits (CDs).
  • Expanded its commercial paper QE program.
  • Introduced a new QE program to buy any asset-backed security (ABS) including student debt.
  • Began a bailout program for small- and medium-sized business.
  • Lowered the interest rate on its repo programs from 0.15% to LITERAL ZERO (meaning NO interest charged).

At its peak in March 2020, the Fed was pumping $125 billion into the market every day.

Things have since calmed down as stocks rocketed to all-time highs. However, Powell’s recent statements clearly indicate he doesn’t think this is enough.

Indeed, during recent press conferences Powell’s Fed has maintained that the Fed will keep interest rates at ZERO through 2023.

Yes, 2023.

What do you think this is going to do to stocks? The last time the Fed held rates at ZERO for years was from 2008-2015. During that time, the S&P 500 nearly TRIPLED.

Currently stocks are up 50% from the lows. If they were to follow a similar move, we’d see the mother of all bubbles with the S&P 500 rising to over 6,000.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

With that in mind, we’ve just published an investment report titled Triple Your Money With the Mother of All Bubbles.

It outlines what the Fed is doing, why it’s doing it, and a unique investment that could easily triple as the Fed unleashes a tsunami of liquidity pushing stocks to nosebleed levels.

The last time the Fed began an easing cycle, this investment rose over 1,439%. And this time around we could see similar gains.

We are making only 100 copies of this report available to the general public,

To pick up your copy, go to:

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/MOAB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Watch This Stock For Signs of a Market Turn

Posted on by

The markets are preparing for a monster move.

It’s been an exciting couple of months, but despite all the action the S&P 500 has effectively gone nowhere since late August.

Whenever we break out of this range, the move will be explosive. 

The one stock I’m watching closely for signs of the move is Shopify (SHOP).

SHOP bottomed March 18th (blue square) a full FIVE days before the broader market did on March 23rd (purple square).

Put simply, SHOP lead the market by a wide margin out of the March bottom. Similarly, it peaked hours before the broader market did in early September.

Put simply, SHOP has been leading the market at every major turn for months.

So, what’s it saying now?

Despite the recent correction in stocks, SHOP is holding up well and remains close to the top of its consolidation range. If it can finally break that range with conviction, we’ll see a MAJOR bull run start in the broader market.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

This Might Be the One Stock You Need to Watch to Time the Market

Posted on by

The markets are preparing for a monster move.

It’s been an exciting couple of months, but despite all the action the S&P 500 has effectively gone nowhere since late August.

Whenever we break out of this range, the move will be explosive. 

The one stock I’m watching closely for signs of the move is Shopify (SHOP).

SHOP bottomed March 18th (blue square) a full FIVE days before the broader market did on March 23rd (purple square).

Put simply, SHOP lead the market by a wide margin out of the March bottom. Similarly, it peaked hours before the broader market did in early September.

Put simply, SHOP has been leading the market at every major turn for months.

So, what’s it saying now?

Despite the recent correction in stocks, SHOP is holding up well and remains close to the top of its consolidation range. If it can finally break that range with conviction, we’ll see a MAJOR bull run start in the broader market.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Fed Has No Choice But to Create Another Even Larger Bubble

Posted on by

The market will likely hit new all-time highs this week.

Stocks held support last week (green line in the chart below). We now have a bull flag forming on the 4-hour chart for the S&P 500 (blue lines in the chart below).

It’s incredible to be writing this: stocks roaring to new all-time highs multiple times after one of the sharpest most violent sell-offs in history hitting in March of this year.

Indeed, by the look of things, we’re going to see a massive stock bubble in the coming months.

And why not? The economy appears to be coming back strongly from the COVID-19 shutdowns. Last week we found out that retail sales rose 1.9% month over month (only 0.3% was expected).

And against this backdrop of growth, central banks and policymakers have unleashed a TSUNAMI of money printing.

Remember, to combat the economic fallout from the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 central banks printed $12 trillion between 2008 and 2016.

Well. they’ve printed more than HALF of this ($7 trillion) in the six months from April to September alone. Throw in stimulus programs from governments and the number balloons over $15 TRILLION.

Put another way, it previously took policymakers EIGHT years for to spend $12 trillion. They’ve already committed to spending MORE than this in less than EIGHT months.

Also, and this is key…between stimulus payments and central bank lending facilities directly to small businesses/ Main Street, much of this money is actually going straight into the economy.

In the U.S., we’ve already seen one stimulus program of $3 trillion. On top of this, the Fed has put over $1.6 TRILLION in actual real money into the U.S. economy in the form of credit facilities. Add that up are you’re talking about $5+ trillion in new money entering the economy this year.

And now Congress is talking about another stimulus program somewhere between $500 million and $1.8 trillion being funneled into the economy sometime in the next three months. That would put the total money printing for 2020 in the ballpark of $7 trillion.

Let’s put this into perspective. The U.S. economy is roughly $22 trillion in size. So, in the span of a single year, policymakers will have funneled an amount of money equal to nearly 33% of U.S. GDP directly into the economy.

This is how you get a MASSIVE bubble. As in the S&P 500 goes to 6,000 or higher in the next 12 months.

I realize that sounds insane. But remember, we’re talking about an amount of liquidity equal to 33% of the U.S. GDP being funneled into the economy in nine months.

As investors, our job is NOT to argue about what the market should do, it’s to make MONEY from what the market IS doing.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks Are About to Reclaim Their Bull Channel

Posted on by

Stocks will break above resistance (red line) today. 

The bullish falling wedge formation (blue lines) now has a confirmed breakout.

This increasingly looks like the next major leg up. Stocks will be reclaiming their bull market channel that has guided the markets since early April. 

This opens the door to a run to 3,600+ on the S&P 500.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks Are About to Explode… Here’s How We’re Playing It

Posted on by

Stocks will break above resistance (red line) today. 

The bullish falling wedge formation (blue lines) now has a confirmed breakout.

This increasingly looks like the next major leg up. Stocks will be reclaiming their bull market channel that has guided the markets since early April. 

This opens the door to a run to 3,600+ on the S&P 500.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Two Charts Every Trader Needs To Watch This Week

Posted on by

Stocks are up slightly this morning, most likely due to President Trump’s rapid recovery from COVID-19. Remember, futures first plunged on Thursday night/ Friday morning when he announced he and the first lady had tested positive for COVID-19.

Despite all of the excitement, the market remains in a kind of “no man’s land” between resistance (red line) and support (green line). Until we break one of these lines with conviction, stocks are in a chop fest.

GPC10520.png

Stepping back from the day to day, the S&P 500 looks to be forming an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. If we break above that neckline, the upside target is not all-time highs. By the look of things, we’ll know if this will be the case by the end of the week.

GPC105202.png

Why would this happen?

Because the Fed and other major central banks have gone “all in” on their efforts to create a stock market bubble.

Forget politics, forget social issues, forget all of that stuff. The one thing that matters to central banks is keeping the markets elevated.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Will the Next Major Move be UP?

Posted on by

Stocks ripped higher yesterday. However, they ended the session near the lows at support (green line in the chart below). The overnight futures session is signaling another rally this morning, but until we take out overhead resistance (red line in the chart below) we’re stuck in no man’s land.

For certain a BIG move is coming. Momentum stocks suggest it will be UP.

Shopify (SHOP), one of the biggest momentum stocks in the market, has broken above one line of resistance already (lower red line in the chart below). It will be testing and possibly breaking a second line of resistance this morning (upper red line in the chart below).

This suggests the next move will be higher.

Tesla (TSLA) another Wall Street momentum darling will likely break above out of its triangle formation (blue lines in the chart below).

This too suggests the next move will be higher.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Warning: Momentum Stocks Suggest a Face-Ripper is Coming

Posted on by

Stocks ripped higher yesterday. However, they ended the session near the lows at support (green line in the chart below). The overnight futures session is signaling another rally this morning, but until we take out overhead resistance (red line in the chart below) we’re stuck in no man’s land.

For certain a BIG move is coming. Momentum stocks suggest it will be UP.

Shopify (SHOP), one of the biggest momentum stocks in the market, has broken above one line of resistance already (lower red line in the chart below). It will be testing and possibly breaking a second line of resistance this morning (upper red line in the chart below).

This suggests the next move will be higher.

Tesla (TSLA) another Wall Street momentum darling will likely break above out of its triangle formation (blue lines in the chart below).

This too suggests the next move will be higher.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and other central banks are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Corporate Bonds Are Breaking Down, the Fed Is About to Step In Again

Posted on by

The Fed is about to intervene in the markets.

The corporate bond market is once again coming under duress. The last two times this happened, the Fed announced a new monetary policy within days.

Junk bonds have broken below support.

Investment grade bonds are about to do the same.

This indicates that the $10 trillion corporate bond market is coming under duress.

The Fed has spent trillions of dollars propping up this market and other more senior debt instruments. Why would it suddenly decide to let them implode? 

So we can expect the Fed to announce a new monetary policy, or at the very least, stage a verbal intervention shortly.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and US government are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

The Next Major Market Move Might Not Be in Tech

Posted on by

Leadership has changed in the markets.

Since the March lows, tech, specifically cloud-based tech has lead the markets higher. Companies like Square (SQ) have more than tripled in share price while the S&P 500 is up 40%.

GPC915201.png

However, in the last few weeks this has changed. Former market leaders like SQ or Shopify (SHOP) have been trading sideways.

GPC915202.png

Meanwhile, industrial plays like Freeport McMoran (FCX) and John Deere (DE) have barely corrected at all, soaring to new highs.

GPC915203.png

Why is this?

The market is sensing that the next major move will be driven by fiscal spending and the Trump administration’s coming infrastructure program.

Put another way, the COVID-19 lockdowns are ending, the rush into cloud/ remote working plays is ending, and the next major market move will be driven by government spending.

Those who get into this trend early could stand to make literal fortunes.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and US government are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

This is Where the Next Major Market Move Will Hit

Posted on by

Leadership has changed in the markets.

Since the March lows, tech, specifically cloud-based tech has lead the markets higher. Companies like Square (SQ) have more than tripled in share price while the S&P 500 is up 40%.

GPC915201.png

However, in the last few weeks this has changed. Former market leaders like SQ or Shopify (SHOP) have been trading sideways.

GPC915202.png

Meanwhile, industrial plays like Freeport McMoran (FCX) and John Deere (DE) have barely corrected at all, soaring to new highs.

GPC915203.png

Why is this?

The market is sensing that the next major move will be driven by fiscal spending and the Trump administration’s coming infrastructure program.

Put another way, the COVID-19 lockdowns are ending, the rush into cloud/ remote working plays is ending, and the next major market move will be driven by government spending.

Those who get into this trend early could stand to make literal fortunes.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to what I’ve been saying since 2017… that the Fed and US government are trapped in a vicious cycle through which it INTENTIONALLY creates bubbles to deal with each successive bust.

We had the Tech Bubble in the ’90s.

The Housing Bubble in the mid-00s.

And now the Everything Bubble in 2020.

On that note, we’re putting together an Executive Summary on how to play this move.

It will identify which investments will perform best during the Fed’s next bubble, including a unique play that could more than double the performance of the S&P 500.

This Executive Summary will be available exclusively to subscribers of our Gains Pains & Capital e-letter. To insure you receive a copy when it’s sent out, you can join here:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research