Recession Watch

The Second Wave of Inflation Has Arrived

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

I warned time and again that the Fed was making a massive policy mistake that would unleash another round of inflation.

By quick way of review, the Fed stopped raising interest rates in July 2023. It then started talking about cutting interest rates in November. This was a MASSIVE mistake as inflation has NOT been defeated.

Indeed, ever since the Fed started talking about cutting rates, the official inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has bottomed and is now turning back up.

This trend continues. Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that CPI rose 0.4% Month-over-Month (MoM) and 3.5% Year-over-Year (YoY) in March 2024.

 This represents the FOURTH straight month of CPI coming in hotter than expected. The fact it surprised Wall Street and most investment strategists confirms that NONE of these people are paying attention to the data.

The only part of the inflation data that is down is energy prices (and used cars which receives almost no weight). Every other segment of the CPI continues to rise.

See for yourself:

However, even Energy prices will begin turning up again… as are commodities in general. Both gasoline prices and copper prices are on the rise and about to break out of multi-year consolidation periods.

This is going to catch most investors offsides… but the good news is that with the right investments, you could see EXTRAORDINARY returns from what’s coming.

On that note, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from this rampant government spending. Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:


Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation, Recession Watch, The Markets

Signs of a Recession Are Growing…

Is the economy just about to roll over?

Copper, the commodity with a PhD in economics, has erased all of its year to date gains. It’s currently about 10% off its 2022 lows which marked the low for risk assets before this current bear market rally began.

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It’s a similar story for oil, which is just slightly off its 2023 lows and down 46% from its 2022 highs.

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Steel doesn’t look good trading at new lows for 2023.

Ditto for aluminum.

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As well as lumber.

Is this demand destruction? Or is it the result of the Fed tightening monetary policy and taking out some of the froth from the financial system?

The bond market suggests its demand destruction. The 2s10s, which has predicted every recession since 1955 is suggesting a severe recession is coming.

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What do you think this will do to stocks?

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If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming courtesy of the banking crisis, we have published an exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth.

This report is usually $250, but we’re giving away 100 copies for FREE to those who sign up for our free daily market commentary.

Today is the last day this report is available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies, use the link below…

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Recession Watch, stock collapse?