The Everything Bubble

19
Sep
2023

By Graham Summers, MBA

The Great Debt Crisis of our lifetimes is approaching.

As S&P Global recently noted, global debt has just hit $300 TRILLION for the first time in history. As if that wasn’t jaw dropping enough, this amount of debt represents 349% of global GDP. If you were to spread out this debt across the world population each man woman and child would owe over $36,000.

Put simply, this is an incomprehensibly massive debt bomb. And inflation has lit the fuse.

You see, bond yields trade based on inflation among other things. So once inflation entered the financial system in 2021, it was only a matter of time before bonds yields began to rise.

Higher bond yields mean greater debt payments. And greater debt payments mean that it the debt becomes more difficult to service. At a yield of 0.25%, you can service $1,000,000 worth of debt for just $2,500. But at a yield of 5%, that same $1,000,000 in debt now costs $50,000 to service.

Again, inflation lit the fuse of our global debt bomb in 2021. And by the look of things, the fuse has almost burned completely away!

Take a look at the below chart and you’ll see what I mean. This is the Invesco 1-30 Laddered Treasury ETF (GOVI). It’s effectively a proxy for the entirety of the U.S. Treasury market. And as you can see, it is now trading at the same level it first hit in 2015, and just barely clinging to critical support.

Once that line gives way, the great debt crisis of our lifetimes will likely begin.

Smart investors are already taking steps to profit from this.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining how to invest when this Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
21
Apr
2023

Three Charts You Need to See Before the Weekend Hits

By Graham Summers, MBA

It’s earnings season and options expiration week for the month of April. 

Both of those items have historically been extremely bullish: stocks almost always rally into earnings and options expiration week is the week of for Wall Street to gun the markets higher.

And yet… the stock market is doing this.

When a pattern that has a lot of historical precedent stops working… it can indicate a serious shift is taking place under the surface of the markets.

I would also note that the Fed’s balance sheet has rolled over, indicating that the Fed is withdrawing liquidity from the system again.

While Bitcoin and other liquidity plays are beginning to roll over as well.

All of this suggests the next leg down for the markets is just around the corner.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

We made just 100 copies available to the general public.

As I write this, there are less than 50 left.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM2.html

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PS. Our new investing podcast Bulls, Bears & BS is officially live and available on every major podcast application (Apple, Spotify, etc.)

To download or listen, swing by:

https://bullsbearsandbs.buzzsprout.com/

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
08
Mar
2023

Is the Great Debt Crisis of Our Lifetimes Finally Going to Arrive?

By Graham Summers, MBA

The U.S. is heading towards a debt crisis.

It’s been heading towards one for years… but the massive rise in Treasury yields may finally be the match that lights the fuse.

I’ve written extensively about the rise in Treasury yields over the last few weeks. I’ve primarily done this from the perspective of yields rising due to inflation… which triggered the bear market in stocks.

However, it’s worth noting that this rise in yields has another far more systemic consequence. That is: the U.S. is now paying a WHOLE LOT more on its debt.

Consider the following…

On Monday, the U.S. issued $48 billion worth of six months T-Bills.

This time last year, based on where yields were, the U.S. would pay just ~$180 million in interest on these bonds.

Today, it’s going to end up paying ~$1.3 BILLION.

This is just one example. But this issue will apply to ALL new debts the U.S. issues going forward: higher rates will mean greater debt payments.

And bear in mind, the U.S. has over $31 trillion in debt outstanding… and is adding to this mountain via its $1+ TRILLION deficit this year.

So we’re talking about greater debt payments on a mountain of debt that will need to be rolled over or paid back sometime in the near future.

Meanwhile, investors are piling into stocks as if a new bull market has just begun. Despite the 20% drop last year, stocks continue to trade at a market cap to GDP of 150%+. To put this into perspective, it is roughly the same level that the markets hit relative to GDP at the PEAK OF THE TECH BUBBLE!

Oh… and by the way… our proprietary Bear Market Trigger… the one that predicted the Tech Crash as well as the Great Financial Crisis… is on a confirmed SELL signal for the first time since 2008.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
18
Jan
2023

Buckle Up, the Bond Market is About to Break a Major Central Bank

By Graham Summers, MBA

The situation in Japan is worsening.

As I’ve outlined before, Japan is the grandfather of monetary policy insanity. The Fed first introduced Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2008.

The central bank of Japan, the Bank of Japan or BoJ introduced them in 1999 and 2001, respectively. And since that time, it’s NEVER been able to normalize monetary policy. Indeed, the longest the BoJ has even managed to tighten monetary conditions in 20+ years is a mere 14 months. 

Put simply, Japan has been dealing with extraordinary monetary policy for an entire generation: 25 years. Along the way, the BoJ has launched: 

1)    Negative interest rate policy (NIRP), through which it charges lenders to lend it money.

2)    A single QE program equal to 25% of Japan’s GDP (in 2013).

3)    Unlimited QE in the form of yield control, through which it prints money and buys Japanese Government Bonds any time said bonds’ yields begin to rise above a certain level.

We are in the process of watching #3 blow up today.

Initially, the BoJ, wanted 10-Year Japanese Government Bond yields to remain at 0%. However, once inflation arrived, the BoJ found itself printing so much money to defend that level, that it was forced to raise its yield target to 0.5%.

And that’s when all hell broke loose. The bond market is repeatedly testing the BoJ’s resolve, with yields rising above 0.5% time and again. To counter this, the BoJ is being forced to launch previously unscheduled QE programs on a near daily basis.

Friday and Monday alone, the BoJ spent $78 BILLION. And bond yields STILL rose above its desired level of 0.5%.

Something is about to break here. The BoJ just announced that it won’t be changing its policy despite the obvious signs that it is losing control of its bond market.

Put another way: we’re about to find out what happens when a bond market breaks a major central bank. Think of the 2023 crisis for Italy and Spain… only with the world’s THIRD largest economy and third most used currency. 

As I keep stating, the Great Crisis… the one to which 2008 was a warm-up, has finally arrived. In 2008 entire banks went bust. In 2023, entire countries will do so.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.Paragraph

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
17
Jan
2023

Why Japan’s Bond Market Could Make or Break Your 2023 Returns

By Graham Summers, MBA

Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan, or BoJ, is beginning to lose control of its financial system.

The BoJ is the grandfather of monetary insanity. The U.S.’s Federal Reserve (the Fed) first introduced Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2008.

The BoJ introduced them in 1999 and 2001, respectively.

Since that time, the BoJ has NEVER been able to normalize monetary policy. The longest it managed to tighten financial conditions without having to reverse and start easing again was a measly 14 months.

So we’re talking about 20+ years of loose monetary policy or a slow-motion nationalization of Japan’s financial system. The BoJ has bought so many assets during this time that today it:

1) Owns more than half (50%) of all Japan Government Bonds outstanding.

2) Owns more Japanese stocks than any other entity (country or institution) in the world.

3) Is a top 10 shareholder in 40% of Japan’s publicly listed companies.

4) Has a balance sheet that is equal to 92% of Japan’s GDP.

Having spent 17 odd years printing money and buying assets with little success in creating economic growth, in 2016, the BoJ attempted a new kind of policy: Yield Curve Control (YCC).

In its simplest rendering, the BoJ stated that anytime the yields on Japanese Government Bonds rose above a certain level (0% for the 10-Year Government Bonds), the BoJ would print new money and use it to buy bonds until the yields fell back to the desired range.

This was an open-ended, unlimited form of QE. And the BoJ maintained it for six years straight until inflation finally appeared in the financial system.

And that’s when things started to break: the Yen collapsed to a 35 year low.

At this point, the BoJ had a choice: defend its currency or continue defending its bonds.

The BoJ chose to defend the currency by RAISING the target yield for 10-Year Japanese Government Bonds from 0% to 0.5%. This was an implicit admission that it would print less money defending bonds. And it’s why the Yen began to rally in late 2022 (see the large bounce in the chart above).

Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. The bond market has begun testing the BoJ’s resolve, with the yields on Japanese Government Bonds rising above the BoJ’s target repeatedly. Things have begun to spiral out of control to the point that the BoJ is being forced to intervene on a near daily basis to try and stop the bond yields from soaring higher.

The BoJ is now in a corner. If it keeps printing money to defend bonds the Yen collapses making inflation worse. And if it doesn’t print money to defend bonds the bond yields soar and Japan becomes insolvent (unable to make debt payments).

As I keep stating, the Great Crisis… the one to which 2008 was a warm-up, has finally arrived. In 2008 entire banks went bust. In 2022, entire countries will do so.

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, The Everything Bubble
10
Jan
2023

Is the Worst Over For This Bear Market?

By Graham Summers, MBA

In 2022, the Everything Bubble burst courtesy of the inflation created by over $8 trillion in Fed and Federal government money printing. 

As I outlined in my best-selling book, The Everything Bubble: the Endgame for Central Bank Policy, the Fed created the Everything Bubble when it attempted to corner the U.S. Treasury market in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis.

Treasuries are the bedrock of our current financial system, and their yields represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) are priced. So, when the Fed created a bubble in Treasuries via Zero Interest rate Policy (ZIRP) Quantitative Easing (QE), it ended up creating a bubble in EVERYTHING.

So, it’s no small irony that the Fed and its absurd money printing from 2020-2021 was what unleashed inflation, which burst this bubble. You see, Treasury yields don’t just trade based on Fed intervention. They also trade based on economic growth as well as inflation. 

So once inflation ignited in 2021, U.S. treasury yields broke out of their 35+ year downtrend.

Remember, when I wrote that the yields on these bonds represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets, including stocks, are valued? Once Treasury yields started rising, stocks were soon repriced much lower to account for this. The S&P 500 ended 2022 DOWN 19%, making it the seventh worst year for stocks since 1920.

Which brings us to today.

The single most common question my clients are asking is if “the worst is over” for this bear market.

To answer that, we need to determine the answers to two other questions:

1)    Has the Fed managed to kill inflation?

2)    Will the U.S. economy experience a soft landing as opposed to a severe recession?

I’ll delve into those tomorrow. In the meantime if you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
05
Jan
2023

Why Investors Should Be Praying For a Stock Market Crash

By Graham Summers, MBA

Investors should be praying for a stock market crash.

From a systemic perspective, the markets have entered a period of “risk off”. This has been the case since March of 2022. And the single best thing for investors would be for the markets to get this situation over with quickly via a crash.

Yes, I am fully aware that crashes are extremely painful and involve investors losing a lot of money. However, when the markets crash, they also bottom quickly, which means the pain is over FAST.

Consider the 2020 Crash: the entire collapse was over in about five weeks. And stocks had already begun to recover much of their losses within a few months. In fact, within six months they were at new all-time highs!

Now compare that to the Bear Market of 2000-2002. 

That collapse took over TWO YEARS to complete. Not months… YEARS.  Peak to trough the S&P 500 lost 50%. And on a yearly basis the losses were actually worse with each successive year. The market lost 10% in 2000, 13% in 2001, and 23% in 2002.

Worst of all, it took the S&P 500 FIVE years to recoup its losses. Investors lost money for years and then had to wait half a decade to make those losses back.

So again, the best thing for investors would be for the markets to crash soon. A crash would mean the pain would be over quickly and stocks could bottom.

Unfortunately, I don’t think that is going to be the case. 

I’ll explain why in tomorrow’s article… however, in the meantime if you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
04
Jan
2023

The Great Crisis of Our Lifetimes Has Finally Arrived

By Graham Summers, MBA

In 2014, I coined the term “the Everything Bubble” to describe the Fed’s insane monetary policies. By quick way of review, after the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, the Fed created a bubble in U.S. sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries.

The Fed did this by cutting interest rates to zero and introducing large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs to the tune of $3.5 trillion. The end result was that the entire Treasury curve was repriced at extraordinarily low levels of risk.

Because these bonds are the bedrock of our current financial system, and their yields represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) are priced, when the Fed created a bubble in Treasuries, it ended up creating a bubble in EVERYTHING.

This is why I coined the term “the Everything Bubble.” And in 2017 I published a best-selling book by the same name (The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy), explaining what the Fed was doing and what the final outcome would be.

That outcome?

That the Everything Bubble would burst, just like the Tech bubble of the 1990s and the Housing Bubble of the ‘00s. And when this happened, it would bring about the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes.

That process has now begun. Last year, 2022, was one of the worst years for the financial system in history.

It was literally the worst year for bonds on record, with bonds losing anywhere from 4% to 22% depending on the duration of bonds you owned.

The situation wasn’t much better for stocks. The S&P 500 finished the year down 18%, making it the seventh worst year running back to 1920. The only years during which stocks performed worse than this were during the during major financial crises or during a severe recession/ depression.

And unfortunately, this is just the beginning.

Unlike the Great Financial Crisis or the collapse of 2020, this process will NOT be quick. The reason is quite simple: during those situations the Fed was able to introduce extraordinary monetary policy to cushion the collapse. 

This time it cannot. 

The entire reason the Everything Bubble burst was because the Fed maintained its emergency level monetary policies for far too long. The recession of 2020 supposedly ended in May of that year, but the Fed printed $2.6 TRILLION after this, while also keeping interest rates at zero.

The Fed wasn’t the only one. Between multiple Stimulus programs and as well as socialist schemes disguised as infrastructure/ fiscal stimulus, the U.S. government has spent over $8 TRILLION in the last 34 months.

The end result is that inflation has arrived in the financial system. And the Fed CANNOT try to “cushion” this situation because more money printing/ easing is only going to make things worse.

Put another way, this crisis is going to take longer, and get much worse than anyone expects. It’s quite possible stocks don’t bottom until 2024… at levels most investors can’t even imagine.

The time to prepare for this is NOW. During the bear market of 2000-2003, things actually got worse each successive year with stocks losing 10% in 2000, 13% in 2001, and 23% in 2002.

I believe something similar will happen this time around

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for this crisis, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
03
Jan
2023

The Everything Bubble Has Burst

By Graham Summers, MBA

Over the last 25 years, the financial system has been in what I call the “era of serial bubbles”: a time in which central banks create asset bubbles, said asset bubbles burst, and central banks respond by creating another, larger bubble in a more systemically important asset class.

The first primary bubble was the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s. While that bubble was isolated to a particular sector in a particular asset class (Tech Stocks), it was egregious in scope. A third grader could have looked at a chart of the NASDAQ and told you the situation wouldn’t end well.

When that bubble burst, the Fed opted to create another bubble by employing extraordinary monetary policies. Specifically, the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long, essentially making credit free. And because congress passed legislation that lowered lending standards to potential homeowners, the subsequent bubble took place in real estate: a much larger, systemically important asset class.

However, this time around, the bubble became truly global in scope, courtesy of Wall Street derivatives that the Fed ignored/ refused to regulate. In simple terms, Wall Street packaged up garbage mortgages into “assets” that were sold to everyone from hedge funds to pension funds, banks and more. In this manner, toxic mortgages in Florida, Las Vegas, etc. ended up on the balance sheets of everyone from Japanese banks to Spanish hedge funds.

So, when the housing bubble burst, all of these assets had to be revalued at much lower values… resulting in the global banking system imploding during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

What did the Fed do to address this situation?

It attempted to corner/ create a bubble in U.S. sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries. 

These are the senior most asset class in the world. These bonds act as the bedrock of our current financial system, with their yields representing the “risk free” rate of return against which all assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) are valued.

Put simply, when the Fed created a bubble in these bonds it was actually creating a bubble in EVERYTHING, because ALL asset classes would eventually be repriced based on Treasuries were doing.

This is why I coined the term “the Everything Bubble” in 2014.

And that bubble has now burst.

The yield on the all-important 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken its 35 year down trend. The era of Serial Bubbles is over. And there is nothing the Fed can do to fix this situation.

After all, what can it do? There isn’t a larger more systemically important asset class the Fed could use to create another bubble. And introducing more extraordinary monetary policy would make the situation worse.

What does this mean?

The Great Crisis of our lifetimes is finally here.

I’ll detail what’s coming for the markets in tomorrow’s article.  In the meantime, if you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for this crisis, we just published a new exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth when it ends.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM.html

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Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, The Everything Bubble
09
Nov
2022

Warning: The Fed Didn’t Pivot… And It Won’t For Months, Part 2

By Graham Summers, MBA

Yesterday I illustrated that the Fed has NOT pivoted and won’t be for months. Anyone who says otherwise isn’t listening to what the Fed is actually saying!

Reviewing the Fed’s public statements since March 2022 (the month it began tightening monetary conditions), nowhere is there any hint or mention of a Fed pivot.

If anything, even formerly dovish Fed officials like Neel Kashkari (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) or John Williams (President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) reveals that they are all inflationary hawks!

However, this hasn’t stopped the shills in the media from pushing the narrative that the Fed is about to pivot. And has been the case multiple times this year, investors have fallen for this narrative, piling into stocks.

The latest Fed pivot-induced rally began in mid-October. It went into hyperdrive on October 21, when Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter who is believed to be a Fed conduit in the media, published an article titled, Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes.

At the time, the Fed was in a “blackout” period in which Fed officials couldn’t make public appearances to dissuade the investing public from interpreting this article as suggesting a Fed “pause” and possibly even a “pivot” in monetary policy were at hand.

This presented under performing fund managers with a golden opportunity.

Many funds (both mutual and hedge) have performed TERRIBLY this year. With numerous large financial institutions’ fiscal years ending October 31 (Fidelity, Vanguard, etc.) and November 15th serving as the date by which large investors need to alert hedge funds of their intentions to withdraw money, fund managers were under TREMENDOUS pressure to game performance going into month-end and mid-November.

In this context, the Timiraos article published on October 21, 2022, was the perfect excuse to ramp stocks higher based on the ignorant and deceptive notion that the Fed was about to pivot.

THAT is why stocks have been rallying.

Not because the macro situation has improved (it hasn’t) Not because the Fed or Fed officials have hinted at a pivot (they haven’t). Not because the inflation data is improving (it isn’t). But because fund managers were desperate for any excuse to push stocks higher, and a supposed Fed conduit in the financial media gave them that excuse.

Full stop.

So where do we go from here?

I’ll detail that in tomorrow’s article. For now, the key item to note is that the Everything Bubble has burst.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining how to invest in this new bearish environment.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here.

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
19
Oct
2022

What Happens to Stocks When the 5th Largest Economy in the World Goes Bust?

By Graham Summers, MBA

One of the central theses of my bestselling book The Everything Bubble is that once a central bank embarks on a path of extraordinary monetary easing, it can never escape.

The Bank of England (BoE) is now finding this out the hard way. Back in September it had planned on shrinking its balance sheet via a process called Quantitative Tightening (QT).

Then the new government introduced more fiscal easing, the British Pound collapsed and the yields on British Government bonds exploded higher.

The BoE was forced to abandon all plans on QT and instead introduced emergency, unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE) to try and calm the markets.

The new plan was to provide QE for a few weeks until things calmed down. In fact, this “temporary” QE was supposed to end October 14. However, the BoE was forced to provide additional easing measures to make sure things remain calm.

So QE is ending… but easing is not. And the BoE claims it will once again try to start QT on November 1st.

Good luck with that! The Pound is already rolling over again!

As I keep stating, the Great Crisis… the one to which 2008 was a warm-up, has finally arrived. In 2008 entire banks went bust. In 2022, entire countries will do so.

The U.K. is the fifth largest economy in the world. And by the look of things, it will be the first to go bust. It won’t be the last. Japan, Europe and ultimate the U.S. will experience debt crises in the coming months.

Smart investors are preparing for what’s coming now… before it arrives!

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

We made an additional 100 copies available to the public based on what is happening in the markets.

As I write this there are 9 left.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
13
Oct
2022

Forget the UK… Have You Seen What Is Happening in Japan?!?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Aaaaaaaaannnd another country is losing control of its financial system.

We’ve already assessed the fact that the financial system of the United Kingdom (U.K.) is in the process of imploding. The British Pound and yields on British government bonds have collapsed in the last month, resulting in the country’s central bank, the Bank of England, (BoE) launching an emergency, unlimited Quantitative Easing (QE) program.

The last time the BoE was forced to do this was during the pandemic crash in March 2020. We’re now over two years out from that and the BoE just had to launch another emergency QE program because the financial system is so addicted to central bank interventions that the BoE can’t even begin to shrink its balance sheet without triggering a currency/ bond crisis. 

Bear in mind, we’re not talking about Uganda or some other emerging market here… we’re talking about the fifth largest economy in the world… and one of the major currencies for trade. 

However, the U.K.’s problems pale in comparison to those of Japan.

The Japanese Yen is collapsing, falling to the lowest levels since early-‘90s. 

The situation became so dire in late September that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) was forced to intervene to buy its own currency for the first time since 1998. 

The Yen bounced for one day and then rolled over to new lows.

Yes, we’ve reached the point at which a MAJOR central bank announces that it will be intervening directly in its currency market… and the impact lasts one day.

See for yourself.

As I keep stating, the Great Crisis… the one to which 2008 was a warm-up, has finally arrived. In 2008 entire banks went bust. In 2022, entire countries will do so.

And smart investors are already preparing for what’s coming…

For those looking to prepare and profit from this mess, our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide can show you how.

We made an additional 100 copies available to the public based on what is happening in the markets.

As I write this there are 19 left.

To pick up your FREE copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
04
Oct
2022

This Book Predicted the Fed’s Next Move in 2017!

Amazon is currently running a special on my best-selling book, The Everything Bubble…it’s 25% off on paperback and 85% off the Kindle version.

So if you’ve yet to pick up a copy… or would like to gift a copy to family and friends, this is the single best opportunity all year to do so.

To take advantage of these prices… and potentially change someone’s life with the gift of knowledge and understanding of how our financial system truly works… as well as what’s coming down the pike.

Click Here Now!!!

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
19
Nov
2021

Is the Everything Bubble About to Burst?

We are getting DARN close to a top of some kind.

The market is being propped up by fewer and fewer stocks. This week, the NASDAQ has had more stocks making new lows than at any time in since the March 2020 CRASH.

And the NASDAQ is at all-time highs.

Again, the NASDAQ is at all-time highs, but the number of NASDAQ stocks hitting new lows is approaching levels associated with the fastest 30% market crash in history.

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This is truly incredible, and it tells us that just a handful of stocks are holding up the entire market. And this is during the greatest stock market bubble of all time… a bubble so massive that it makes the Tech Bubble look like a joke in terms of speculation.

The coming bust is going to be life-changing for many people. Most will lose much if not everything. But a small number of investors will generate literal fortunes.

If you’re interested in becoming one of them, you need to check out the signals that I rely on to tell me when a crash is about to hit.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
17
Nov
2021
The Next Fed Chair is Irrelevant… But This Sure As Heck Isn’t!!!

The Next Fed Chair is Irrelevant… But This Sure As Heck Isn’t!!!

The markets are waiting on President Biden who will announce his nominee for the new Fed Chair in three days’ time (over the weekend).

Will current Fed Chair Jerome Powell land a second term… or will the President hand the reins to Lael Brainard or some other Beltway insider?

Or… more importantly… does it even matter?!?!

The Fed has created the largest bubble in financial history… a situation so out of control that:

  1. Crypto currencies that were created as jokes are worth tens of billions of dollars.
  2. People are selling NFTs of farts.
  3. Tesla (TSLA), a $1 trillion company, is trading like a penny stock.
  4. SPACs with NO ACTUAL BUSINESS OPERATIONS being valued at billions of dollars.
  5. Clean energy automobile companies with ZERO REVENUE are valued as being worth more than Volkswagen.

The bubble is massive even using normal metrics.

Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator (stock market capitalization vs. GDP) is at an all-time high, indicating this bubble is even larger than the Tech Bubble.

Options trading volume (a sign of speculation) also dwarfs that of the Tech Bubble. As Bill King noted, this is truly biblical in scope.

And then there’s the fact that the market is stretched a full 40% above its 50-month moving average (MMA). The only times in the last 35 years that it’s been stretched higher than this was right before the 1987 Crash and during the Tech Bubble’s final run to its peak before bursting.

So, whoever President Biden chooses as the next Fed Chair doesn’t really matter. Whoever it is, the bubble is still there, and is still going to burst, triggering the next major crisis.

So forget about the next Fed Chair. What you should be asking yourself is, “how can I avoid THIS?”

To figure this out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards​

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
15
Nov
2021
What’s Coming Will Be Worse Than 2008. Here’s Why…

What’s Coming Will Be Worse Than 2008. Here’s Why…

The great inflationary tidal wave continues to worsen. If anything, all signs indicate an absolute bloodbath is coming to the markets.

Five-year inflation breakeven’s just hit 3.11%. This is the highest reading running back to a least 2003. It’s higher than in 2011, when inflation triggered a food crisis around the globe. It’s also higher than in 2005-2006 when housing was in the largest bubble of all time and oil was about explode higher to $150 a barrel.

Put simply, the financial system is telling us that investors are terrified of inflation and that something truly horrific is coming our way. Worse still, by the look of things, the Fed will have a real problem on its hands trying to stop this. 

Think of it this way… the last time five-year inflation break-evens were even close to this level was in 2005-2006 and the economy and financial system were about to begin the worst recession and financial crisis in 80+ years.

This time around, the situation is far worse. Back then, the economy was growing by 5%-6% and the Fed had interest rates at 5%+ so it had plenty of room to ease to cushion the collapse.

Today the economy is structurally crippled due to the after-effects of the 2020 lockdown while the Fed still has rates at ZERO. If you think the economy is strong, consider that the Fed has admitted it doesn’t believe it can raise rates until the second quarter of 2022 (at the earliest). 

What kind of economy needs rates at zero to function?

Another key difference between the 2005-2006 period and today is that back then the Fed had yet to launch a single QE program. So, the impact of QE was still quite strong.

Today, the Fed is already engaged in a $120 billion QE program which it won’t fully end until mid 2022. 

Put simply, in 2005/ 2006 the Fed was in a much better position to combat a collapsing economy/ financial crisis. This time around, the Fed has already used every tool at its disposal, including some tools (buying corporate debt, municipal debt, etc.) that it technically shouldn’t be allowed to buy at all!

What will the Fed be forced to do when this happens? Cut rates into negative territory? Monthly QE of $250 billion? $500 billion? And what’s going to happen to the markets when this insane bubble bursts and this happens?

Even more importantly for investors…HOW DO WE AVOID THIS? 

To figure this out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

​​

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
12
Nov
2021

This is the Real Reason the Fed is Terrified of Raising Rates From Zero

Why is the Fed so worried about tapering QE and raising rates?

Think about it… The Fed launched this current version of QE in a single day. Why does it take SIX months for the Fed to end it… especially since stocks are at all-time highs and the COVID-19 induced recession technically ended in June of 2020?

Moreover, this is the LARGEST QE program the Fed has ever run. The prior record was set by QE 3 in 2012 which saw the Fed printing $80 billion in new money per month. The Fed is currently printing $120 billion per month and has been doing so since March of 2020. And because it’s only tapering this program at a pace of $15 billion per month, this current QE will STILL BE larger than the prior largest QE ever a full two months into the taper!

Bear in mind, we’re only talking about QE here. The Fed is terrified of raising rates a full 15 months after the recession supposedly ended… at a time when there are truly INSANE signs of froth in the financial system

Some of the more egregious examples include:

  1. Crypto currencies that were created as jokes worth tens of billions of dollars.
  2. People selling NFTs for farts.
  3. Tesla (TSLA) a $1 trillion company trading like a penny stock.
  4. Options trading volume dwarfing that of the Tech Bubble.
  5. SPACs with NO ACTUAL BUSINESS OPERATIONS being valued at billions of dollars.
  6. Stocks at or recently at all-time highs across the board.
  7. Home prices at all-time highs and rising by 20% year over year.

And the Fed is SCARED of raising rates from ZERO!?!?! We’re not even talking about raising them by 2% or more… we’re talking about raising them from 0.25%!!!

What is going on here?

What’s going on is that this entire “recovery” is based on the Fed manipulating bond yields to extraordinarily low levels.

Our current financial system is based on debt, not gold or some other hard asset. U.S. government debt, called Treasuries, are the bedrock of this financial system. The yields on these bonds represent the “risk free” rate of return against which all risk assets (stocks, commodities, real estate, crypto, etc.) are valued.

The only reason you’ve got stocks at all-time highs is because the Fed has kept rates so low while pumping over $4 trillion in new money into the system. Take that away, and the whole mess is a house of cards.

You can see this everywhere, though you might not be able to connect the dots.

The whole situation is not a real recovery, it’s just a massive band-aid over deep structural wounds that policymakers forced on the economy and financial system when they pushed to shut the economy down.

You can tell the whole thing is total BS based on the stock market alone. Notice how this latest bubble is so extreme it actually exploded out of an uptrend in ways that neither the Tech Bubble nor the Housing Bubble ever did?

Diagram Description automatically generated

That’s why the Fed is so terrified of normalizing monetary policy. Because it threw the kitchen sink at the financial system to create this bubble.

So what happens when the bubble bursts as all bubbles do? $250 billion in QE per month? $500 billion in QE per month?

At the end of the day, this is coming whether the Fed wants it or not. It’s just a matter of when.

The big question for investors is… HOW DO WE AVOID THIS? 

To figure this out, I rely on certain key signals that flash before every market crash.

I detail them, along with what they’re currently saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.

To pick up a free copy, swing by

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/predictcrash.html

Best Regards

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
07
Oct
2020
Our Best Seller is On Sale At Kindle Now

Our Best Seller is On Sale At Kindle Now

Amazon is currently running a special on The Everything Bubble…
an astonishing 85% off on the Kindle version.

So if you’ve yet to pick up a copy… or would like to gift a copy
to family and friends, this is the single best opportunity all year to do so.

To take advantage of these prices… and potentially change someone’s
life with the gift of knowledge and understanding of how our
financial system truly works…

Click Here Now!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
18
Sep
2020
Our Best Seller is Now 85% Off on Kindle

Our Best Seller is Now 85% Off on Kindle

Amazon is currently running a special on The Everything Bubble…
an astonishing 85% off on the Kindle version.

So if you’ve yet to pick up a copy… or would like to gift a copy
to family and friends, this is the single best opportunity all year to do so.

To take advantage of these prices… and potentially change someone’s
life with the gift of knowledge and understanding of how our
financial system truly works…

Click Here Now!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble
16
Mar
2020

The Fed is now in very serious trouble. 

Over the weekend the Fed announced another emergency rate cut, this time of 1%. This brings rates back down to zero.

The Fed also announced a $700 billion QE program, including $200 billion of mortgage backed securities and $500 billion of Treasuries.

And the futures market collapsed… LIMIT DOWN. As I write this, the stock market will be opening down some 5%.

Put another way, the Fed has gone truly NUCLEAR with monetary policy… and the market is STILL imploding.

In the last two weeks, the Fed has:

1)    Cut rates from 1.25% to ZERO.

2)    Launched a $1.5 TRILLION repo program.

3)    Launched a $700 billion QE program.

And NONE of these items has stopped the market collapse.

So, what is going on?!?!

The Fed is facing the perfect storm of crises.

The Fed faces an:

1)    An economic recession possibly a depression triggered by a pandemic.

2)    A corporate debt crisis with some $4-$5 trillion in debt at risk.

Regarding #1, the coronavirus pandemic has resulted in the global economy stopping. The latest numbers out of China show DEPRESSION-like collapses in economic activity.

The U.S. is heading there now. Restaurant traffic is down some 30%+ in the last week (60% in some markets). Events are being canceled. And people are staying home rather than going out and spending money.

The Fed can do NOTHING to stop this. No amount of rate cuts of stimulus from the Fed will make people want to go out and spend money if the country is on lockdown/ facing a health crisis triggered by a pandemic.

This in turn is triggering #2: a corporate debt crisis with some $4-$5 trillion in debt at risk.

Since 2008, US corporations have issued a truly INSANE amount of debt, often times using this debt to buy back their own stock.

Consider that it took 50 years for the US corporate bond market to hit $4 trillion. It has more than DOUBLED that to $10 trillion since 2008 alone.

The economic impact of the coronavirus has brought this market under systemic duress. With corporate sales imploding, companies will suddenly have much less money to use to make debt payments.

As you can see in the chart below, the bull market in junk bonds is OVER. If we take out that lower red line, we’re entering a systemic crisis for corporate debt.

This is a huge deal. And frankly, the Fed can’t do anything about it.

The corporate debt market is a $10 trillion bubble, of which $1.5 trillion is junk (think subprime) and another $4 trillion is just one step above this (probably junk as well).

And unlike mortgages or Treasuries, the Fed CANNOT buy this stuff. Not unless congress changes the Federal Reserve act.

Why does this matter?

Because corporate debt leads stocks. The stock market bounced at 2,500. Credit tells us stocks will be heading to 2,300 if not lower.

In the simplest of terms, the next crisis is here. The coronavirus has burst the Everything Bubble. And we’re heading into another 2008 type meltdown, or possibly something worse. 


In light of this, we’ve reopened our Stock Market Crash Survival Guide to the general public.

Within its 21 pages we outline which investments will perform best during a market meltdown as well as how to take out “Crash insurance” on your portfolio (these instruments returned TRIPLE digit gains during 2008).

To pick up your copy of this report, FREE, swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market StrategistParagraph

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Everything Bubble