04
Jun
2025

If You Don’t Own These Companies, You’re Missing Out!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

If you don’t have at least some exposure to tariff-proof stocks, you’re missing out.

As I wrote yesterday, the current stock market is one in which some stocks are exploding higher while others are left behind. The ones that are exploding higher all share certain attributes, specifically…

  1. They are high growth.
  2. They have little if any exposure to the trade war/ tariffs.

Regarding #1, it is clear that we are late in the economic cycle.

The U.S. has not had an organic recession since 2007 (the 2020 recession was induced on purpose). One of the hallmarks of late-cycle economies is slowing growth. Our current cycle is no different: annual GDP growth is typically sub-3% in recent years.

In this context, those companies with rapid top line growth are highly prized by the markets as they provide the opportunity of much higher profits/ cash flows. After all, if the broader economy is growing at 3% or less, why wouldn’t you reward corporate growth that is in the double if not triple digits?

Take a look at Nvidia (NVDA) and you’ll see what I mean. NVDA went from producing ~$27 billion in revenue in 2022 to over $130 billion in revenue in 2024. That is a four-fold increase in revenues at a time when the average annual topline growth for S&P 500 companies was just 5%.

As a result of this rapid growth, the stock market has rewarded NVDA handsomely with NVDA shares up nearly 500% since 2022. Again, this is a stock market that GREATLY values growth over other metrics.

Which brings us to #2 in our list of stock market priorities: this is a stock market that LOVES companies with little if any exposure to the trade war/ tariffs.

As far as the actual economy is concerned, the effect of the trade war and tariffs has been minimal. All of the hard data (retail sales, consumer spending, etc.) has remained positive despite concerns about an economic collapse.

Having said that, while the tariffs/ trade war hasn’t really damaged the economy much, they’ve been absolute hell for the stock market. The April market meltdown erased over $11 trillion in wealth. And even now that the Trump administration is actually closing trade deals, those companies that have broad exposure to tariffs are struggling.

Take a look at Apple (AAPL), arguably one of the greatest, most profitable companies in history. AAPL is a cash spewing juggernaut with a sticky ecosystem that generates tremendous brand loyalty from consumers. The company cranks out ~$100 BILLION in free cash flow per year: an amount greater than the market capitalizations of MOST companies on the S&P 500.

However, AAPL also has considerable exposure to tariffs/ the trade war. The company has over 500 suppliers located throughout the world. And the majority of its products are made overseas in China: the country the Trump administration has singled out as the worst offender as far as trade issues are concerned.

Because of this, AAPL shares are struggling, even compared to the broader market. The S&P 500 is up almost 18% from the April lows. AAPL shares are up just 12%. And they are failing to catch a bid even on days when the overall market moves higher.

So again, if you don’t own high growth stocks with little to no exposure to the trade war, you’re missing out.

This concludes today’s article. For a list of Special Investment reports we offer to the general public outlining investment opportunities you won’t hear about anywhere else, go to…

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Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Tariff Proof Stocks
02
Jun
2025

These Are the Top Performing Stocks In the Market Today

We are in a two-tier bull market.

While most stocks are up from the April lows, certain companies are outperforming by a wide margin. The overall market as measured by the S&P 500 is up 22% from the April lows. However, certain companies have produced gains that are exponentially greater than that, rallying 50% or even more than 100% in the last eight weeks.

This is not an accident. The stock market is rewarding certain qualities right now while downplaying others. And those companies that are outperforming all have two specific qualities.

  1. They are all high growth with rapid increases in their toplines.
  2. They have little if any exposure to tariffs and the trade war.

Regarding #1, below is a chart showing the ratio of the S&P 500 Growth ETF to that of the S&P 500 Value ETF. When this chart rallies, growth is outperforming. When this chart falls, Value is outperforming. As you can see, growth stocks are DRAMATICALLY outperforming value stocks right now. In fact, this ratio is fast approaching the all-time highs hit in 2021. Put simply, right now the market is rewarding growth over value.

The second quality the top performing stocks all have is little if any exposure to the tariffs.  While it is now clear that the Trump administration prefers deals to a prolonged trade war, the reality is that trade negotiations are rarely if ever smooth or quick. The average trade deal takes over 18 months to be complete. And as the situation with China has proved, progress is usually accomplished via a “two steps forward, one step back” pattern.

With that in mind, capital is rapidly flowing to those companies that have little if any exposure to the tariffs.

Compare the stock market performance of a company like Palantir (PLTR) to that of Coco-Cola (KO). Their market capitalizations are roughly the same ~$300 billion, but PLTR, which is high growth oriented, software data analytics company with little if any exposure to tariffs is dramatically outperforming KO, which has slower growth (but a lot more in profits) and considerable exposure to the trade war/tariffs (KO products are in most countries worldwide).

Again, this is a two-tier stock market. Practically everything is up from the April bottom, but certain companies are benefiting from the current market more than others. These are the companies investors need to be focusing on with their capital.

We detail four such investments in a Special Investment Report Tariff Proof Stocks: four high growth companies unaffected by the trade war.

As I write this three of them just hit new all-time highs. The fourth isn’t far behind either.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of how this stock market is behaving, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
30
May
2025

The Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure Is TERRIBLE at Predicting Inflation

Wall Street is high fiving itself today because the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE came in slightly cooler than expected. PCE grew at a pace of 0.1% month over month for the month of April. This matched expectations. However, year over year PCE was just 2.1% which was below expectations of 2.2%.

Put simply, the most important inflation number proved to be slightly better than most analysts expected. Surely that means that inflation is going away and will continue to do so, right?

Not necessarily.

It turns out that PCE is a TERRIBLE predictor of future inflation. What’s even more astonishing is that Fed’s OWN RESEARCH shows this.

You see, back in 2001, the Fed had several researchers dive into the subject of inflation. Their goal was the analyze whether the Fed’s preferred measures of inflation (CPI and PCE) are decent predictors of future inflation. The Fed also investigated a whole slew of other inflation measures for comparison purposes.

The results?

The Fed found that food inflation, NOT CPI or PCE, was the best predictor of future inflation. Fed researchers wrote the following:

We see that past inflation in food prices has been a better forecaster of future inflation than has the popular core measure [CPI and PCE]…Comparing the past year’s inflation in food prices to the prices of other components that comprise the PCEPI (as in Table 1), we find that the food component still ranks the best among them all…

Source: St Louis Fed (emphasis added).

Now, food is made from agricultural commodities. And as the below chart shows… those aren’t exactly in a downtrend. They’ve more than doubled in price since 2020 and continue to rise. So, the disinflationary impulse that everyone is so excited about is likely more to do with accounting gimmicks that reality.

Indeed, even the official data only shows this. If you look at PCE as a number rather than a year over year change, then it is clear that prices have been going up since 2020 and will continue to do so. The fact they’re not going up as quickly as before is VERY different from claiming that prices are coming down.

Small wonder then that consumers continue to cite inflation as a MAJOR problem. This also explains why gold is hovering near its all-time highs at ~$3,400 per ounce. If DIS-inflation was indeed the primary theme for the financial system, gold would be getting crushed right now.

It’s not.

The reality is that inflation hasn’t gone away, no matter what the “official” data points suggest. I know this. You know it. The markets know it too. Which is why smart investors are actively taking steps to prepare for another round of inflation hitting the financial system later this year.

We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit From Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Inflation
29
May
2025

What’s REALLY in the Big Beautiful Bill?

What’s really in the Big Beautiful Bill?

Depending on who you listen to, the Big Beautiful Bill is either an incredible piece of legislation that will codify tax cuts while also unleashing growth and reducing the deficit, OR it’s just another 1,000+ page of pork that maintains the status quo of overspending/ growing the deficit/ increasing the debt.

The problem with this situation is that the people pushing these claims are either A) individuals who HATE the President and his agenda or B) individuals who work for the Trump administration and so have a vested interest in getting the bill passed.

Neither of those two groups are unbiased. And to be frank, I doubt ANYONE talking about this bill has even read it. Who has time? It only just passed the House on 5/22/25 and it’s 1,116 PAGES LONG!

So rather than arguing one way or the other, let’s let Mr. Market tell us the real deal with this bill.

Mr. Bond is telling us the bill will increase spending. The yield on the 30-Year U.S. Treasury is at 5%, which is right near the top of its range for the last five years. This is also the highest this bond’s yield has traded since President Trump took office.

If the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was designed to cut spending and reduce the debt, this bond would be rallying, resulting in its yield falling. That is NOT happening.

Mr. Gold is saying the same thing.

The precious metal is highly sensitive to money printing/ debt levels. And as I write this, gold is near its all-time highs, trading at roughly $3,300 per ounce. Again, if the BBB was going to reduce the debt and cut spending you’d expect this asset to be going in a different direction.

Of course, it’s possible that the markets are WRONG about the BBB. But considering that the markets are a composite of the actions of millions of people all with “skin in the game,” it’s highly likely that Mr. Market is more accurate that Trump administration officials or analysts/ commentators who openly despite the President.

As investors, our job is to make money, NOT play politics. So, when Mr. Market speaks, it’s usually a good idea to listen. And smart investors are actively taking steps now to profit from this.

We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, Inflation
28
May
2025

The Multi-Trillion Dollar Question Investors Need to Answer

Enjoy the rally and blow off top in stocks, because as we keep warning, the Everything Bubble could very well blow up sometime in 2026.

As I outlined in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policythe bond bubble is THE definitive bubble of our lifetimes. Every other bubble whether it be the Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble, etc. has been a derivative of the almighty bond bubble that was generated during the super cycle bull market in bonds that went from 1982 to 2020.

I’m talking about the chart below: a nearly 40-year period in which bond yields fell almost continuously. In simple terms, this chart shows that debt servicing/ interest payments became ever cheaper. Everyone from countries, states, cities and even corporations took advantage of this to issue debt creating the single largest bubble in human history: the current debt bubble of over $300 TRILLION.

You’ll note that all of this ended in 2021 when yields broke out of their multi-decade downtrend. This was a pivotal moment in the financial system. The only reason it didn’t result in a crisis was because A) banks were not required to mark their debt assets at market value and B) the entire financial system bet on the Fed and other central banks coming to the rescue.

As a result of this, bond yields have effectively traded sideways since the breakout in 2021. This is the ONLY thing stopping a crisis from appearing in the debt markets: relative stability in the bond markets is stopping bond yields from ripping higher.

Thus, the multi-trillion dollar question today is whether this bond yield rally was simply a blip in the grand scheme of things and bond yields will soon break down to new lows… OR if the super cycle bull market in bonds is definitively over and a long-term bear market in bonds is about to begin.

If it’s the former, then we can expect things to continue on as they have for most of the last 40 years, albeit with the occasional crisis. But if it’s the latter, and bonds are in fact about to begin a long-term bear market… the Everything Bubble will explode.

Mind you, this is a GLOBAL phenomenon; it’s not just confined to the U.S. Bond yields have broken out in Japan, Germany and other nations as well.

This is the single most important issue for investors to consider. And by the look of things, we’ll know the deal within a few months. Japan is the nation most in danger of losing control of its bond market, but Europe and the U.S. are not terribly far behind.

If you’re looking for guidance on how to invest for this, we are putting together a Special Investment Report on how to navigate the end of the Everything Bubble. You can join our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital to make sure your account is ready to go when this report is released to our clients.

To do so…

CLICK HERE NOW.

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, The Everything Bubble
27
May
2025

The Multi-Trillion Dollar Question Investors Need to Answer

Enjoy the rally and blow off top in stocks, because as we keep warning, the Everything Bubble could very well blow up sometime in 2026.

As I outlined in my best-selling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policythe bond bubble is THE definitive bubble of our lifetimes. Every other bubble whether it be the Tech Bubble, Housing Bubble, etc. has been a derivative of the almighty bond bubble that was generated during the super cycle bull market in bonds that went from 1982 to 2020.

I’m talking about the chart below: a nearly 40-year period in which bond yields fell almost continuously. In simple terms, this chart shows that debt servicing/ interest payments became ever cheaper. Everyone from countries, states, cities and even corporations took advantage of this to issue debt creating the single largest bubble in human history: the current debt bubble of over $300 TRILLION.

You’ll note that all of this ended in 2021 when yields broke out of their multi-decade downtrend. This was a pivotal moment in the financial system. The only reason it didn’t result in a crisis was because A) banks were not required to mark their debt assets at market value and B) the entire financial system bet on the Fed and other central banks coming to the rescue.

As a result of this, bond yields have effectively traded sideways since the breakout in 2021. This is the ONLY thing stopping a crisis from appearing in the debt markets: relative stability in the bond markets is stopping bond yields from ripping higher.

Thus, the multi-trillion dollar question today is whether this bond yield rally was simply a blip in the grand scheme of things and bond yields will soon break down to new lows… OR if the super cycle bull market in bonds is definitively over and a long-term bear market in bonds is about to begin.

If it’s the former, then we can expect things to continue on as they have for most of the last 40 years, albeit with the occasional crisis. But if it’s the latter, and bonds are in fact about to begin a long-term bear market… the Everything Bubble will explode.

Mind you, this is a GLOBAL phenomenon; it’s not just confined to the U.S. Bond yields have broken out in Japan, Germany and other nations as well.

This is the single most important issue for investors to consider. And by the look of things, we’ll know the deal within a few months. Japan is the nation most in danger of losing control of its bond market, but Europe and the U.S. are not terribly far behind.

If you’re looking for guidance on how to invest for this, we are putting together a Special Investment Report on how to navigate the end of the Everything Bubble. You can join our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital to make sure your account is ready to go when this report is released to our clients.

To do so…

CLICK HERE NOW.

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, The Everything Bubble
23
May
2025

The Everything Bubble Will Burst in 2026

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

We are officially going on record with a startling prediction.

That prediction?

The Everything Bubble will burst in 2026.

The Trump administration came into office proclaiming that it was a champion of Main Street, not Wall Street and that it would be balancing the budget and cutting spending via Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and other efforts.

The results have been lackluster. While DOGE has made headlines for cutting truly egregious contracts that no sane person approves of, the reality is that ALL the DOGE cuts add up to very little in the grand scheme of government spending.

To date, DOGE has cut approximately $50 billion in government spending. But the government spends $ 6+ TRILLION per year. And there are NO SIGNS that the political class want to address this.

Case in point, the spending bill currently making its way through congress will INCREASE the deficit (and the debt). Not by a little: by trillions of dollars. Deficit as a percentage of GDP is INCREASING not decreasing. True it’s down from the pandemic levels, but the pandemic levels were a once in a lifetime event due to the government attempting to “paper over” an economic shutdown.

By the look of things, the bond market is finally beginning to wake up to these realities. The recent 20-Year Treasury auction in the U.S. was a disaster. And yields on long-end of the Treasury curve are in danger of a nasty shock.

Is this the Trump administration’s fault? No, they inherited this mess. But the key development is that they are NOT doing anything to alter it. When that yield breaks above 5% the door is open to a move to 7%. And that is when The Everything Bubble will burst.

Smart investors are already taking steps to make sure they’re ready for when it hits. One such strategy is to use quantitative tools that have accurately predicted crashes in the past.

We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Debt Bomb, stock collapse?, The Everything Bubble
21
May
2025

Japan is Going Bust… and the U.S. is Not Far Behind

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As we keep warning… a debt crisis is coming.

The first round appears to be striking Japan, which is the grandfather of monetary insanity. Japan first introduced Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs nearly a decade before the Fed or other major central banks introduced similar policies. As a result of its near-nonstop interventions running for 25+ years, Japan’s Debt to GDP is over 200% and its central bank’s balance sheet is equal to 90% of the country’s GDP.

As I noted yesterday, Japan finally appears to be losing control of its debt markets. Yields on the all-important 10-year Japanese Government Bonds are exploding higher, at a time when the country needs to service a truly gargantuan amount of debt. Simultaneously, investors are beginning to shun the long end of Japan’s bond market with the country just experiencing its worst bond auction since 1987!

Japan is not the only country that will soon find itself facing a debt crisis. The U.S. is well on its way as well.

For all its talk of cutting spending and balancing the budget, the Trump administration is running the same playbook the Biden administration used from 2021-2024: spend, spend, spend!

The “Big Beautiful Bill” that the Trump administration is championing will increase the U.S.’s fiscal deficit by nearly $4 trillion over the next 10 years. There is little to any actual cuts in spending, and all told the bill is expected to add at least $3 trillion to the debt (which is already at $36 trillion with the U.S. running a Debt to GDP ratio of over 120%).

How will this play out?

A debt crisis will hit when the bond market finally revolts against the U.S.’s spending, just as it is doing with Japan today. At that point, the Fed will have to choose.

  1. Defend the bond market.
  2. Defend the U.S. dollar.

Choosing #1 means the system remains intact and functions, albeit with higher inflation. Choose #2 means that bonds collapse and the financial system experiences a debt crisis that would make 2008 look like a joke.

Which one do you think the Fed will pick?

This is why gold and other inflation hedges are exploding higher: these assets have figured out that there is NO WAY out of the current situation that doesn’t involve a mind-blowing amount of money printing. Heck, the U.S. dollar has already lost over a third of its purchasing power since 2008… and the debt crisis hasn’t even hit yet!

There is a limited amount of time to prepare for this. And smart investors are already taking steps to make sure they’re ready for when it hits. One such strategy is to use quantitative tools that have accurately predicted crashes in the past.

We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Debt Bomb
20
May
2025

Is Japan FINALLY About to Go Bust?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The world is awash in too much debt. And nowhere is this more problematic than Japan.

Japan is the grandfather of monetary insanity. Every crazy monetary policy that central banks have tried in the last 25 years were first introduced in Japan years earlier. The Fed first cut interest rates to zero in 2008. It introduced its first large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE Program) that same year. Japan first cut rates to zero in 1999. And it has been engaged in QE off and on since 2001.

Since that time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has effectively nationalized the country’s financial system to the point that it (the BoJ) is now the single largest owner of Japanese stocks and Japanese bonds in the world. Things have gotten so extreme that there are times in which certain Japanese government bonds don’t even trade anymore because the BoJ owns so much of the market.

Because of 25+ years of monetary interventions, Japan has reached debt levels that are almost impossible to believe. The country has a Debt to GDP ratio of 234%. And the BoJ’s balance sheet is almost as large as the country’s GDP!

These debt levels are problematic even during ideal situations (Greece’s Debt to GDP was only 134% when it began to blow up). But Japan is sitting on this mountain of debt at a time when bond yields are soaring.

The yield on the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond has EXPLODED higher in the last couple of years. As I write this, yields are at levels last seen in 2008… when the BoJ’s balance sheet was equal to only 15% of the country’s GDP.

By the look of things, this situation is finally becoming to come unhinged. Japan just experienced its worst bond auction since 1987. Investors are beginning to avoid long-term Japanese debt as they realize there is NO WAY for Japan to get out of this situation without a crisis.

There is a limited amount of time to prepare for this. And smart investors are already taking steps to make sure they’re ready for when it hits. One such strategy is to use quantitative tools that have accurately predicted crashes in the past.

We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Debt Bomb
19
May
2025

A Debt Crisis is Coming… The Time to Prepare is NOW!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

On Friday after the market’s close, Moody’s downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA to Aa1. While the timing of this announcement is suspect (where was Moody’s during the last four years when the U.S. added nearly $10 trillion in debt?) it’s still a BIG deal for investors.

Why did Moody’s do this?

The credit rating agency notes the U.S. is on an unsustainable trajectory as far as spending and debt is concerned. Moody’s expects the U.S.’s deficits to hit 9% by 2035 while its Debt to GDP ratio will hit 134%. At that point the country’s debt levels would be more akin to an emerging market than the global leader of the world.

The markets are a sea of red this morning as this downgrade has systemic significance. It might be quite early, but Moody’s is noting the same thing that gold and other assets have begun to predict.

The reality is the U.S. is heading towards a debt crisis.

As exciting as the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) various announcements about cutting waste are, the reality is that all of its cuts amount to very little in the grand scheme of things. And for all the Trump administration’s talk of balanced budgets, the current spending bill it is proposing will ADD to the debt, not shrink it.

The U.S. has $36 trillion in debt and is currently running a deficit of $1.5 trillion per fiscal year. Moreover, the deficit is UP, not down for the first five months of fiscal year 2025. And not by a little: deficit spending rose by $318 billion or 38% during the first five months of 2025.

Regardless of who was/ is President while this is happening, and regardless of his agenda, the math simply no longer adds up. Unless the U.S. makes MASSIVE cuts to its largest spending items (entitlements, social spending), there is no way on earth the budget gets balanced.

The issue with this is that even suggesting any cuts to entitlements/ spending is political suicide. For decades the U.S. political class has “bought” votes by promising to spend money on various social issues. Roughly one third of American households receive some kind of government assistance/ entitlement spending.

Good luck cutting that while staying in office.

So, what does this mean for investors?

A debt crisis is coming. It won’t be in the next week or month, but it’s coming. And when it hits, the only way out of the mess is for the Fed and Federal government to “inflate” away the debt: a default would trigger a systemic collapse of the financial system.

This is as close to a “sure thing” as you can get in investing: the $USD will be devalued aggressively as the Fed is forced to print money and use it to buy U.S. debt. The dollar has lost a third of its purchasing power since the Fed began large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs in 2007. It’s only going to get worse from here.

This is why gold is erupting higher, breaking out against every major world currency. It’s why BTC is fast approaching all-time highs. It’s even why stocks have exploded upwards from the April lows (don’t forget, stocks are an inflation hedge).

There is a limited amount of time to prepare for this. And smart investors are already taking steps to make sure they’re ready for when it hits.

If you’re worried about a crash happening, you need to ignore sentiment and “feelings” and rely on quantitative tools that have accurately predicted them in the past.

We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
18
May
2025

Urgent Market Update: The U.S. Was Just Downgraded… a Bloodbath is Coming!

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

Moody’s just downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA to Aa1.

The markets will be opening sharply down on Monday. Anyone who chased the rally into the close on Friday last week will get taken to the cleaners.

Not Private Wealth Advisory subscribers.

Last week when everyone was chasing the markets into the highs, I warned Private Wealth Advisory subscribers that a pullback was imminent and not to go “all in” on stocks at their current levels. I also told them that once the pullback hit, we’d open FOUR new trades designed to profit from the next major market move.

I’d love to help you navigate the markets. While most traders have been whipsawed back and forth by the markets, Private Wealth Advisory subscribers have locked in 13 DOUBLE DIGIT winners in the last month.

To join us in profiting from the markets… and to start receiving my best stock and ETF trades every week, all you need to do it take out a 30-day, $7.99 trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory.

During those 30 days, you’ll receive…

  • FOUR weekly market updates
  • At least SIX new trades
  • A FREE copy of my best-selling book The Everything Bubble (a $9.99 value).
  • Four episodes of my podcast Bulls Bears & BS.
  • And SIX special investment reports detailing the most extraordinary long-term investing opportunities in the markets today.

To take out a 30-day, $7.99 trial subscription to Private Wealth Advisory… and have your subscription all set up to receive my trade alert early next week…

CLICK HERE NOW!!!

Best Regards

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in stock collapse?
16
May
2025

China Taps Out! The Trade War is Paused… Will Stocks Hit New Highs or Roll Over and Crash?

The U.S. and China unveiled a preliminary trade deal on Monday unleashing RABID buying in the stock market. Is this trade deal and subsequent stock market rally legit… or is this all just a headline driven bunch of BS and stocks are about to roll over and crash again?

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into the details of the trade deal, what they mean for the two countries, and whether or not the lows are in for stocks. Graham also dives into the macro data in the U.S., specifically what consumer spending and inflation are telling us about the true state of the economy.

Finally, Graham breaks down the recent price action in stocks, what the next money making move will be, and where gold and bitcoin are headed.If you’re looking to make money from the markets, you NEED to hear this!

To access the episode…

CLICK HERE NOW!

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, Trump 2nd Term
15
May
2025

Are THE Lows In… Or Are Stocks About to Roll Over and Crash?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

A raging debate is taking place between the bulls and the bears.

That debate?

Whether the lows are in… or if stocks are about to roll over and retest the lows or even break down the new lows.

Unfortunately for the bears, or anyone else who has missed the rally thus far, history and multiple metrics point to THE lows being in.

First and foremost, the S&P 500 completed a nine-session win streak two Fridays ago. The financial media likes to claim that this kind of win streak only occurs in the context of recessions, but that is simply not true.

As Ryan Detrick has noted, since 1928 there have been 29 instances in which stocks closed up nine days in a row. Only THREE of them occurred in the context of recessions. So, the odds greatly favor recent price action being bullish, NOT bearish.

Secondly, the month of April saw an incredible swing in prices that ended with a VERY bullish development. At their lowest, stocks were down over 11% for the month. However, because of the incredible rally into month-end, the S&P 500 ended April only down 1%.

This massive swing in momentum from being sharply down to sharply up triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT), an EXTREMELY rare and EXTREMELY bullish development.

If you’re unfamiliar with ZBTs, one is triggered when the percentage of advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) increases from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days.

There have only been 16 ZBT signals since 1957. Every single time, the stock market has been higher both six and 12 months later. Here again, this strongly suggests THE lows are in and a major bear market is not about to unfold.

We also must consider sentiment.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey, more than 50% of investors were bearish on stocks for 11 weeks straight up until this week. That is HIGHLY unusual as historically an average of only 31% of investors are bearish at any given time.

Indeed, 11 straight weeks of more than half of investors being bearish on stocks is an EXTREME reading. Since its inception in 1987, the AAII weekly survey has never seen such an extreme streak of bearishness. Not during the Tech Crash, not during the Great Financial Crisis, and not even during the pandemic has this great a percentage of investors been bearish on stocks for this long.

This is the kind of sentiment you see at major market bottoms, NOT at the start of new bear markets. So here again, the odds greatly favor that THE lows are in, and stocks will move higher.

Finally, peak to trough, stocks declined 18.9% from the February highs. This is what you would call a “bear market” or “near bear market” (Wall Street views a bear market as being a 20% decline).

As I write this, the S&P 500 has recovered more than HALF of that decline. Since 1956 there have been 16 instances during which stocks staged a bear or near bear market decline and then recovered half of the drop. In only one instance did stocks make new lows after recovering half of the initial decline. But in EVERY instance, stocks were higher a year later. (h/t Ryan Detrick). And not by a little, by an average of 18%!

Add it all up, and you’ve got:

  1. A nine-day win streak: a rare and historically bullish signal (89% of the time).
  2. A Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) which has a 100% track record for stocks being higher six and 12 months later.
  3. The kind of extreme bearish sentiment typically associated with major bottoms, not the start of new bear markets.
  4. Stocks recovering half of a bear/near bear market decline, which has a 100% track record for stocks being higher a year later with an average gain of 18%.

Like I said at the start of this article, it is HIGHLY likely that THE lows are in. This is not to say that stocks will go straight up from here, but that the overall trend is now UP.

And while stocks should do well in general, certain companies will produce extraordinary gains due to their being A) high growth and B) unaffected by the trade war/ increased tariffs.

We detail four such companies in a Special Investment Report Tariff Proof Stocks: four high growth companies unaffected by the trade war.

As I write this ALL FOUR of them just hit new all-time highs.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market
14
May
2025

The Fed Is Wrong… And It’s Going to Cost Investors a Fortune

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Fed just got a LOT of egg on its face.

For five months now, the Fed has refused to cut interest rates despite clear cracks showing up in the labor market, as well as companies like Southwest Airlines, Chipotle, McDonalds and even Walmart warning about a downturn in consumer spending.

The reason the Fed gave for sitting on its hands was that inflationary risks were rising due to the upcoming trade war. In simple terms, the Fed believed that the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs would result in corporations being forced to raise prices, which in turn would trigger another wave of inflation hitting the financial system.

Never mind that there is little if any evidence that this has been the case for other countries with  tariffs. The 400 economics PhDs, 150 research assistants, and other big wigs at the Fed were convinced that their models were more accurate than reality.

Well, yesterday’s inflation data put that delusion to bed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed the LOWEST inflation level since February 2021.

Whatever uptick in inflation the Fed had imagined would appear has not. And in fact, inflation is trending down again.

So, inflation is at 2.4%… and the Fed has rates at 4.5% and is still running Quantitative Tightening (QT). This is EXTREMELY tight monetary policy and it’s highly likely something is going to break soon.

With inflation at 2.5% and rates at 4.5%, this means that real rates, or inflation-adjusted rates are at positive 2%. Historically, over the last 25 years, any time real rates have been this positive, it’s only been a matter of time before something broke in the financial system

See for yourself.

Anyone who listened to the Fed has missed out on some EXTRAORDINARY returns from the stock market. While many stocks were hurt by the trade war, certain key companies have already moved past it and are rocketing higher.

We detail four such companies in a Special Investment Report Tariff Proof Stocks: four high growth companies unaffected by the trade war.

As I write this ALL FOUR of them just hit new all-time highs.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
12
May
2025

Will You Profit From the Coming Market Meltup?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As we keep stating, a trade deal is coming between the U.S. and China. This means THE lows are in for the markets.

Over the weekend, China officials met with their U.S. counterparts in Switzerland. All reports signal the talks were productive with U.S. trade representatives noting that the two countries were able to come to basic agreements quite quickly.

We were not surprised.

China has no other option here as its economy is on the verge of economic collapse. Factories are closing daily. Protests are erupting with workers demanding back pay after not being paid for weeks. Youth unemployment is skyrocketing. Indeed, things have become so dire in the People’s Republic that it has simply stopped reporting numerous economic data points as Jeffrey Tucker notes.

Starting the last several months, and, in some cases, dating back several years, China has gone dark in reporting the following: land sales, foreign investment, unemployment numbers, business confidence, numbers of investors in financial markets, real estate valuation, retail sales, and even vital data on cremations so that health authorities have no idea what is going on. The bureaus have simply stopped reporting.

Source: The Epoch Times

Put simply, China NEEDS a deal that results in reduced tariffs, or it will enter a deflationary death spiral. This doesn’t mean a trade deal will come rapidly (although that seems to be the case). Rather it simply means that as far as the trade war between the U.S. and China is concerned, things are improving and will continue to improve.

This means THE lows are in and stocks are ready to rocket higher. The S&P 500 has already erased ALL their losses since Liberation Day and is now breaking above its 200-day simple moving average (DSMA) for the first time since March.

If you’ve missed out on this move, do NOT be alarmed. Things are just getting started here. Indeed, both gold and bitcoin has already shown us what is coming: a melt up in which risk assets got to levels few can imagine.

So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?

THE lows are in.  And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, Trump 2nd Term
09
May
2025

President Trump Just Told Us What’s Coming… 

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Trump administration just gave one of the most blatant “tells” in investing history.

Yesterday, President Trump told investors to “buy stocks” because the U.S. economy was going to be like a “rocket ship” as the U.S. begins signing trade deals.

Yes, President Trump is famous for making bold, oftentimes extreme statements. But he is also the President of the United States. And as such he wields INCREDIBLE power over the economy and financial system.

In this context, regardless of your feelings concerning the President and his agenda, you HAVE to take note. Rarely if ever are investors given EXPLICIT signals by the elites as to what is coming down the pike.

Why is President Trump doing this? What does he see that we don’t?

President Trump has figured out that stocks HAVE to go up as a matter of national security.

Over 60% of American households have exposure to the stock market. Stocks are the 2nd most owned asset class behind real estate. Stocks comprise the bulk of American retirement accounts.

Put simply, Americans’ wealth LITERALLY requires stocks to remain strong. It is not merely a matter of profits… it is a matter of national security: a stock market crash can cripple the economy as consumers panic and cut back on spending.

President Trump figured this out when the Trade War erased $11 trillion in wealth in a matter of two weeks, and consumer spending/ sentiment imploded. As I noted last week, companies ranging from Southwest Airlines, McDonalds, PepsiCo, Chipotle and even Walmart noted that consumers pulled back on spending in ways not seen since the pandemic.

Again, all it took was two weeks of stocks falling to trigger a consumer panic that would have easily resulted in a recession had things not changed course.

So where do things go from here?

The Trump administration has very publicly to prioritize the markets. The President himself literally told Americans to buy stocks yesterday. This doesn’t mean that stocks will go straight up… but it DOES mean that the administration WANTS a raging bull market.

So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?

THE lows are in.  And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in The Markets, Trump 2nd Term
08
May
2025

How to Profit From the Fed’s Latest Mistake

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

The Fed will be forced to start easing sooner rather than later.

Yesterday’s Fed FOMC announcement was a non-event, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged. The more interesting aspect of the meeting came from the level of delusion that Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained during the subsequent Q&A session.

Specifically, Chair Powell maintained his bizarre argument that tariffs are inflationary, and could be highly inflationary depending on how high they remain. He said this with a straight face after acknowledging that consumer and business sentiment has fallen due to the trade war.

So… business and consumers feel worse due to the trade war, which means they’re less likely to spend money… and this is somehow inflationary?

No, the trade war has been highly DE-flationary, with companies ranging from Southwest Airlines to Chipotle, McDonalds, PepsiCo and even Walmart stating that consumer spending has taken a BIG hit in the last month. In some cases, the collapse in spending has been the worst since the pandemic!

Moreover, there are clear and OBVIOUS cracks appearing in the labor market. Average Weekly Hours for All Employees in the private sector has collapsed down to pandemic levels. In fact, the only time it’s been lower in the last 20 years was during the Great Financial Crisis!

Let’s cut through the nonsense here. The Fed is WAY behind the curve once again. Rather than taking action to cushion the coming economic contraction, the Fed is prattling on about the potential inflationary impacts of tariffs (many of which haven’t even been put into place yet)!

We’ve seen this story before. It ends with the Fed realizing it screwed up and panicking with rapid rate cuts and more QE. I know it. You know it. And gold knows it, which is why it’s ripping higher once again.

So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?

THE lows are in.  And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain investments are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
07
May
2025

It’s Confirmed, China and the U.S. Will Meet to Make a Deal

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

China just “tapped out.”

When the Trump administration launched its trade war on 4/2/25, the media teemed with analysis that this approach was a colossal mistake, that China, not the U.S. was in a position of strength, and that ultimately the tariffs would backfire and wreck the U.S. economy.

All of this proved to be wrong.

It is China’s economy, not the U.S.’s, that is on the verge of collapse. Factory closures are happening daily, igniting protests around the country. Youth unemployment is skyrocketing. And the entire economy is on the verge of a deflationary death spiral as it is forced to dump goods into its domestic markets to sell them for whatever price it can get.

As a result of this, the People’s Republic has “come to the table” with some major gestures of good will in the last week. 

Specifically, China has:

  1. Removed tariffs on nearly 25% of U.S. imports to the country.
  2. Offered to help the U.S. with the latter’s fentanyl crisis.
  3. Formally stated that it would like to meet to negotiate a trade deal.

The last one (#3) just hit the news wires last night after the market closed. It’s not a rumor either, it was posted by China’s Commerce Ministry.

We get confirmation of this from the U.S.’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who stated that he would be meeting with China’s Vice Premiere in Switzerland in the coming days.

Stock futures surged on the news.

So, what does this mean for stocks and investors?

THE lows are in.

I don’t mean that stocks will go straight up from here. The typical trade deal can take months if not years to finalize. But stocks discount the future and the future regarding trade relations between China and the U.S. is improving. Things are certainly better today than they were a month ago!

This is a good thing.

And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain stocks are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment. We detail three of them it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in It's a Bull Market, The Markets
06
May
2025

What Is Gold Trying to Tell Us?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

That didn’t last long!

The pullback in gold appears to be ending with the precious metal once again catching a bid. This is extremely bullish. Remember, gold ripped from $2,950 to over $3,500 per ounce in the first half of April alone. The fact the precious metal has only corrected down to $3,200 per ounce before catching another bid indicates there is incredible demand from investors.

What’s going on here?

What’s going on is that collectively, the investment world has realized that gold has certain key attributes that make it incredibly attractive in this environment.

For one thing, gold doesn’t have earnings that will be negatively impacted by tariffs. Gold also doesn’t have to hit its quarterly numbers or maintain its annual forecast to stay in Wall Street’s good graces (see what happened to Palantir last night, which is down over 7%).

Gold doesn’t have to worry about the finding new suppliers to avoid tariffs and duties. It doesn’t commit accounting fraud, engage in stupid mergers than offer no shareholder value, nor does it go out of business.

But most importantly, gold is a hedge against inflation. And the financial system is slowly realizing that the only way out of the current economic environment involves central banks printing money.

Both Europe and Japan are on the verge of recession. The U.S. is not far behind, with numerous signals that the consumer who accounts for the bulk of economic growth is finally breaking down (PepsiCo, Chipotle, Southwest Airlines, McDonalds and even Walmart have issued warnings on this).

Bear in mind, these economies are starting to roll over when their governments are already engaged in fiscal madness. Europe is running a fiscal deficit equal to 3% of its GDP. Japan’s is equal to 4% of its GDP. And the U.S. fiscal deficit is equal to 6% of GDP.

As the chart below reveals, this is an emergency level deficit, the kind typically used to cushion a recession. And the U.S. is running it while the economy is still growing! Imagine what will happen when the U.S. economy rolls over and both Uncle Sam and the Fed move to stimulate to cushion the contraction.

This is what gold has figured out: that central banks and governments will soon need to stimulate/ print even more money. And this will unleash another wave of inflation/ currency devaluation.

If you don’t believe me, consider that gold is breaking out against EVERY major world currency: the $USD, the Euro, the Yen and even the Franc.

The writing is on the wall. Gold is going to be a major beneficiary of what’s coming. Smart investors are actively taking steps now to profit from this.

We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
05
May
2025

MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT: A Trade Deal is Coming Between the U.S. and China

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

China just “blinked” in the trade war.

When President Trump announced “Liberation Day” on April 2nd 2025, the media teemed with analysis and editorials from various gurus that it was a colossal mistake, that China was in a position of strategic strength compared to the U.S., that this position of strength would mean that China wouldn’t need a deal, and that the U.S. would ultimately lose the trade war.

All of this is now proving to be incorrect.

China’s economy is teetering on the brink of collapse, with factories closing daily.

China’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April, a factory survey showed on Wednesday, keeping alive calls for further stimulus as Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” package of tariffs snapped two months of recovery.

Source: Reuters.

Youth unemployment is skyrocketing with reports indicating that the “official” numbers out of China, as bad as they are, actually DOWNPLAY the situation.

Joblessness among youth in Chinese cities rose a second month in February, tracking the nation’s jobless rate which reached a two-year high, official data showed on Thursday.

The urban jobless rate for 16-to-24-year-olds, excluding students, grew to 16.9% from 16.1% in January, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Source: Reuters

China’s stock market has not been immune to the situation either. The mainstream media in the West has been quick to point out how bad the trade war has been for U.S. stocks, but the situation has been as bad if not worse in China.

By the look of things, China has hit its “breaking point.”

Late last week, the People’s Republic made two MASSIVE gestures to the U.S. They were:

  1. Exempting a quarter of U.S. imports from tariffs for the first time in years.
  2. Asking the Trump administration what it wants China to do regarding its involvement in the U.S.’s fentanyl crisis.

The message here is clear: China wants a deal.

Yes, there will be a lot of back and forth… and an actual trade deal will likely take months to accomplish, but a deal is coming.

This changes everything as far the financial system is concerned.

Stocks discount the future. With China signaling that it is interested in making a deal, the future, at least economically speaking, is better today than it was a month ago… which means that THE lows are likely in for stocks.

This is not to say stocks will go straight up from here. But it DOES indicate that the worst is quite possibly behind us as far as the markets are concerned for the next few months.

And while the markets as a whole should work their way higher, certain stocks are poised for truly EXTRAORDINARY gains based on this unique environment.

We’ve outlined three of them in our Special Investment Report How to Profit From Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
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