Bank Crisis

03
May
2025

Is the Stock Market About to Crash?

“Are the markets about to reverse course and crash?”

This is the #1 question on investors’ minds today. The stock market has just staged one of its most spectacular “V-shaped” recoveries in history. And many investors are wondering if the worst is over.

Let’s break down the move in detail.

The initial decline following April 2nd’s “Liberation Day” press conference in the Rose Garden was the 5th fastest 10% decline in the last 75 years. Stocks don’t like uncertainty and the Trump administration’s “shock and awe” announcement of global tariffs against every major trade partner created tremendous uncertainty.

Remember, 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets. All those revenues would be impacted by tariffs. Moreover, few if any companies produce their goods from start to finish. In that context, the trade war had the potential to badly disrupt supply chains, resulting in higher costs, longer production times, and lower profit margins.

Peak to trough, the S&P 500 declined 20% triggering what Wall Street believes to signal a “bear market” was underway. At their nadir, stocks were trading THREE standard deviations away from their long-term trend, as denoted by the 200-day simple moving average (DSMA).

This was an extreme reading and one that suggested a “snapback” rally would occur. And that is precisely what has happened. Stocks have closed higher nine straight days since the lows, with the S&P 500 now back at “the scene of the crime” trading at the same levels at which it was priced when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced.

Historically, this kind of rebound/ price action has been quite bullish in the intermediate term: six to 12 months out stocks are usually higher after a bounce like this. However, in the near-term things are not so clear.

While many stocks are up quite a lot from the lows, Big Tech, which comprises 30% of the S&P 500’s overall weight and nearly 20% of S&P 500 total profits, has lagged. It will be VERY difficult for the overall market to storm higher without these companies participating in the rally.

Consider Apple (AAPL), the 2nd largest company in the S&P 500 (and the world) with a $3+ trillion market cap. While the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 50-DSMA and is moving to challenge its 200-DSMA, AAPL remains well below both lines. In fact, AAPL was recently rejected at its 50-DSMA and has since turned back down after announcing disappointing 1Q25 results.

None of this is good. If AAPL and Big Tech stocks like it cannot catch a bid, the overall market will struggle. These are the stocks you need to keep an eye on in terms of determining what the next major market move will be.

And if you’re worried about a crash happening, you need to ignore sentiment and “feelings” and rely on quantitative tools that have accurately predicted them in the past.

We’re developed precisely such a tool: a highly accurate “crash trigger” that went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the broader public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity, stock collapse?, The Markets
02
May
2025

Ok, This is Starting to Get Serious

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

OK, now things are starting to get serious.

As I’ve noted over the past week, while the Fed twiddles its thumbs and frets about the potentially inflationary impact of tariffs, the real economy is rolling over.

The American consumer accounts for 60%-70% of U.S. GDP. The consumer, not the Fed, is what drives the economy. And all signs are beginning to point towards the consumer being “tapped out.”

In the last two weeks, management teams at Southwest Airlines, PepsiCo, Chipotle, and even Walmart have warned that consumers are cutting back on spending. It’s one thing to see one sector of the economy issue a warning. But when you’ve got multiple sectors (airlines, restaurants, consumer discretionary, and retail), all doing this at the same time, you know it’s getting serious.

Well, we can now add McDonalds, the largest fast-food restaurant in the world, to the list of companies issuing major warnings.

Yesterday, McDonalds announced that same-store sales declined 3.6% in the first quarter of 2025. This is the worst quarterly drop since the shutdowns/ PANDEMIC. The company also noted that spending by low-income and middle-income consumers were down nearly DOUBLE DIGITS from a year ago.

Again, this is McDonalds we’re talking about, not a high-end restaurant. And it’s yet another signal that the REAL economy is rolling over right before our eyes. Like I mentioned at the start of this article, things are getting serious.

So where do things go from here?

Most likely in the same way they played out in 2000, 2007 and 2020: the economy will roll over, the Fed will realize it’s WAY behind the curve and start panicking by cutting rates aggressively and printing trillions of dollars in new money to prop up the financial system.

Those investors who are properly positioned for this will make literal fortunes. Those who ignore the warning signs… not so much. You only have to look at what gold and stocks have done in the last month to understand what I mean: there will be MAJOR winners and MAJOR losers in the markets.

The odds of a stock market crash are now higher than at any point since the pandemic.

If you’ve not prepared for this, the time to do so is NOW before this unfolds.

Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the economy today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity, Debt Bomb
01
May
2025

Are You Ready For What’s Coming?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

As I write this, billions of dollars in capital are fleeing paper assets and moving into hard assets.

See for yourself.

Below is a chart of the price of gold plotted against the price of the S&P 500. When gold outperforms the S&P 500, this line rises. And when the S&P 500 outperforms gold, this line falls. As you can see, after 10 years of stocks dramatically outperforming gold, the tables are about to turn. Once this ratio breaks above resistance, the door is open to a truly shocking move.

What is going on here?

What’s going on is that capital has figured out that central banks are about to commence their next major round of money printing. Europe and Japan’s economies are on the brink of recession. The U.S. economy is showing signs of duress as well, with everyone from Chipotle to Southwest Airlines to PepsiCo and even Walmart noting the American consumer is under duress.

Put simply, it’s only a matter of time before central banks are forced to panic, cutting rates and printing money by the trillions again. And this is going to ignite a truly jaw-dropping period of returns for those properly positioned for it.

Indeed, the charts for many gold miners are breaking out in MAJOR ways.

Franco Nevada (FNV.TO)

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)

The financial system is SCREAMING about what’s coming. And those investors who are properly positioned for it are making literal fortunes.

We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
25
Apr
2025

There is No Way Out of This That Doesn’t Involve Money Printing

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

What is going on with gold?”

This is the #1 question I’m being asked by clients. The answer is actually quite simple: gold recognizes that there is no situation in which the Fed doesn’t end up printing money in the next six months.

The economy is rolling over. Consumer spending accounts for 70%-75% of U.S. GDP. And consumers are panicking due to the trade war with some readings coming in at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.

I’m not exaggerating here.

The Survey of Consumers from the University of Michigan showed that consumer confidence has declined four months in a row. That same survey showed that the share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise this year had risen five months straight and was at its highest level since 2009 (after the Great Financial Crisis).

At the same time as consumers are panicking, the stock market has staged one of its most aggressive collapses in history, with stocks declining over 20% peak to trough in just six weeks. Over $11 TRILLION in wealth has been erased.

The Fed claims they will NOT act to support the markets, but who are we kidding?  Do you really think the Fed would stomach a deflationary collapse that triggers systemic risk?

In simple terms, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed turns on the printing presses again.

Small wonder then that gold has been on a tear. Gold has figured out that there is NO WAY out of the current financial mess that doesn’t involve money printing. Indeed, if the policymakers’ actions during the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that the only thing they DO know how to do when stuff hits the fan is print money.

The precious metal is currently correcting, but don’t be fooled, this bull market in gold is NOWHERE near over.

And all of this is happening at a time when the $USD is on beginning to collapse.

This is an extremely dangerous situation. Money printing by the Fed will only accelerate the $USD collapse… which will ignite another round of inflation. If you’re not preparing for this, the time to act is NOW before it happens.

We detail this situation, what’s to come, and THREE investments to profit from it in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit a Inflation.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
09
Apr
2025

What Happens if China Dumps Its Treasury Holdings?

By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist

A very strange thing is happening in the markets.

Historically, when the stock market collapses, money flees stocks and floods into U.S. Treasuries. The reason for this is that Treasuries are considered a safe haven due to the fact that no matter what, the U.S. Government can always print money to pay back its lenders.

As a result of this, typically when stocks break down, bonds rally. In this sense, Treasuries are a market hedge, or at least act as a cushion against stock market losses.

Here’s where things get strange. During  this latest stock market collapse bonds is NOT rallying. Instead, bonds are selling off along with stocks!

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 (top box) and the 30 Year U.S. Treasury (bottom box). As you can see, bonds are collapsing at the same time as stocks. This makes no sense and runs contrary to one of the most basic rules of modern portfolio theory.

What is going on here?

China is one of the largest owners of U.S. debt. All told the People’s Republic of China (PBOC) owns about $750 billion in Treasuries. And by the look of things, China is starting to dump these bonds as part of the trade war.

Why would China do this?

Believe it or not, China’s economy is nowhere near as strong as the media claims. Youth unemployment is so bad that the country simply stopped publishing the data. The country’s policy of simply building things, demolishing them, and then building them again to maintain a high rate of GDP growth is no longer working (building then demolishing infrastructure doesn’t generate revenues or real growth).

Indeed, things are so bad that foreign investors are no longer plowing money into China’s economy: in 2023, foreign direct investment in China declined for the first time in 25 years!

Heck, even the Chinese stock market has gone nowhere for 20 years. This is NOT a sign of sustainable growth!

Put simply, China’s financial system is in VERY serious trouble.  And they are in desperate need of capital which is why it is highly likely they are beginning to dump their Treasury holdings, forcing Treasury bonds to collapse alongside stocks.

If this doesn’t improve soon, we could soon see an international crisis as China’s financial system breaks down in a major way. Which means…

This crisis/ bear market is NOWHERE near over.

Put simply, all of the above items are MAJOR warnings that a crisis is about to hit. This is no longer about tariffs… the Everything Bubble is bursting right before our eyes.

If you’ve yet to prepare for this, the time to act is NOW before the bear market hits.

Indeed, our proprietary Crash Trigger is now on red alert. This trigger went off before the 1987 Crash, the Tech Crash, and the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the market today in a Special Investment Report titled How to Predict a Crash.

Normally this report is only available to our paying clients, but in light of what’s happening in the markets today, we are making just 99 copies available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies…

CLICK HERE!

Graham Summers, MBA

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Debt Bomb, stock collapse?, Trade Wars
14
May
2024

Is This Major Country About to Default?

Japan is showing us the endgame for central bank insanity.

Ever since the Great Financial Crisis, the Fed has been following Japan’s playbook for propping up a financial system. Indeed, everything the Fed has done, Japan originally nearly a decade earlier.

The Fed first cut interest rates to zero in 2008. Japan did that in 1999. 

Similarly, the Fed first introduced large-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) programs in 2008. Japan first did that in 2001. 

My point is that Japan is the grandfather for central bank insanity. Because of this, the current situation in that country bears watching as it shows us the endgame for what will eventually unfold in the US.

I’m talking about the collapse of a currency.

Japan’s currency, the Yen, started collapsed in 2002. Since that time, Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan or BoJ for short, has begun intervening to prop up the currency.

As you can see in the below chart, every single one of these interventions has failed. The Yen is now hanging on to the edge of a cliff by its fingernails. If this last line of support gives way, it could enter a free-fall.

Put simply, the third largest economy in the world is on the verge of an outright currency collapse.  And if you think this couldn’t happen in the U.S., you are mistaken. The Fed has already signaled that it will be inflating away the U.S. debt in the coming years.

This means the $USD slowly entering a death spiral… and inflation trades making fortunes.

There is a LOT of money to be made here… and if you’re looking for a means to to insure you profit from it, we recently published a Special Investment Report detailing three investments that will profit from the Fed’s inflationary mistakes. As I write this, all three of them are exploding higher.

Normally this report would cost $499, but we are giving copies FREE to anyone who joins our daily market commentary.

To pick up your copy, go to:

CLICK HERE NOW!

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research, MBA

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity, Inflation
31
Jul
2023

The Fed Has Created Another Bubble… Are You Prepared For When It Bursts?

By Graham Summers, MBA

Everything changed for the financial system in March 2023.

What happened then?

The Fed and the Treasury implemented a backdoor bailout of the banking system.

If you’ll recall, in late February/ early March 2023, a number of smaller/ regional banks failed in the U.S. While we say these banks were “small” in comparison to the mega banks like JP Morgan or Wells Fargo, the reality is that when Silicon Valley bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic bank failed, they represented three of the largest bank failures in U.S. history.

Why were these banks failing? 

Two reasons:

1) The banks were only paying 0.3% on deposits at a time when depositors could earn 4% or even 5% in a money market fund or short-term Treasuries. So people were pulling their money out of the banks in droves.

2) The banks were sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of unrealized losses on their longer-duration assets (mid to long-term treasuries and loans) courtesy of inflation forcing these bonds to collapse.

Now, investor confidence is a strange thing. Both of the above issues were common knowledge as early as November 2022, but for whatever reason, investors chose to ignore them and give regional banks the benefit of the doubt until late February 2023,

Then Silicon Valley bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic failed, and investors began to panic, dumping regional bank shares. Banks’ share prices were falling 10%, 20% even 50% in a single day. And in early March 2023, it appeared as if the U.S. was mere days away from a full-scale banking crisis.

That’s when the Fed and the Treasury jumped in… 

The Treasury, acting with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) moved to assure depositors that their money was safe, offering to backstop ALL deposits above the usual $250,000 that is insured by the FDIC.

Simultaneously, the Fed pumped nearly $400 billion into the financial system in the span of three weeks.

The Fed also opened a backdoor bailout scheme to funnel nearly $100 billion to the banks.

And that’s when everything changed for the stock market. Stocks bottomed and haven’t looked back.

Below is a weekly chart for the S&P 500 year to date. Each of those candles represent the price action of a given week. White candles represent up weeks and black candles represent down weeks.

As you can see, the last major black candle occurred in late February/ early March 2023 during the regional banks’ issues. Since that time, the market has closed UP for 13 of the last 19 weeks. And of the six down weeks, only two were significant; the other four we all bought aggressively, with stocks reclaiming most of the initial losses by the time the week ended.

I’ve illustrated the two significant down weeks with blue circles in the chart below. Note that the other four down weeks were either down only slightly (purple circles) or saw the market ramp hard off the lows (red circles).

In the simplest of terms, everything changed for stocks in early March 2023. Since that time, the markets are back into “bubble mode” with everything soaring. Companies like Sirius XM Holdings have saw their share price DOUBLE in the span of a week. Meanwhile Carvana is up 700%! 

Bearing all of this in mind, smart investors are asking, “what’s next? Will the Fed continue to pump the markets into an even larger bubble, or is this whole mess going to come crashing down?”

I’ll detail my thoughts on this in tomorrow’s article. In the meantime, we recently outlined a unique “of the radar” investment that will could EXPLODE higher as due to the Fed’s money printing. We detail this investment in an investment report called  Billionaire’s “Green Gold.”

It details the actions of a family of billionaires who literally made their fortunes investing in inflationary assets. And they just became involved in a mid-cap company that has the potential to TRIPLE in value in the coming months.

Normally this report would be sold for $249. But we are making it FREE to anyone who joins our Daily Market Commentary Gains Pains & Capital.

To pick up your copy, swing by:

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/GreenGold.html

Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis, Central Bank Insanity
05
May
2023

How to Tell If Your Bank is in Trouble

By Graham Summers, MBA

Dear Investor,

You no doubt have some concerns about the bank at which you keep your deposits.

I mean, why wouldn’t you? Three of the largest bank failures in U.S. history have already taken place this year. And by the look of things, there are even more to come.

So today we’re going to do a quick break down of how to analyze a bank to see if it’s in trouble. This is NOT meant to be an exhaustive lesson on accounting, but simply a decent rule of thumb to help you figure out if a bank is in serious trouble as far as its bond portfolio is concerned.

As I’ve already outlined earlier this week, 2022 was the worst year on record for long-term Treasury bonds. This has been a huge problem for banks which own hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars’ worth of long-duration bonds and loans that move based on what happened with Treasuries. Unless the banks hedged this risk, they are likely sitting on substantial losses in their long-duration portfolios.

Now, by law, every bank has to report the losses or gains on many of the assets it owns. These are recorded as “unrealized” gains or losses in the case of the assets that the bank still owns/ has yet to sell.

See for yourself. 

Below is a screenshot from the income statement of a bank. As you can see, the total amount of unrealized losses ballooned in 2022, likely as a result of these assets dropping in value when the bond market collapsed. As of year-end 2022, this bank is sitting on $952 million worth of unrealized losses.

Now, that sounds like a lot of money in “unrealized losses,” but everything is relative. So to see if this is a major issue we need to assess that number against the bank’s shareholder equity (the stock owners).

In this particular instance, the bank in question has shareholder equity of $3.9 billion. So put another way, this bank is sitting on unrealized losses equal to 25% of shareholder equity. That’s a pretty big deal, which would suggest this bank could find itself in trouble.

All of this information can be found on the SEC’s website. Simply go there, type in the symbol for your bank, then go to its annual or quarterly financial statements (the 10-K or 10-Q). You can even do a “search” function in those files for the terms “unrealized losses” or “shareholder equity” to find the specific parts you need to see.

I hope this helps!

If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare for what’s coming courtesy of the banking crisis, we have published an exclusive special report How to Invest During This Bear Market.

It details the #1 investment to own during the bear market as well as how to invest to potentially generate life changing wealth.

This report is usually $250, but we’re giving away 100 copies for FREE to those who sign up for our free daily market commentary.

Today is the last day this report is available to the general public.

To pick up one of the remaining copies, use the link below…

https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/BM2.html

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is signature.jpg
Posted by Phoenix Capital Research in Bank Crisis