Month: June 2019

Stocks are up this morning on news that President Trump came to an acceptable agreement with the Mexican government over the weekend.

As a result of this, his proposed tariffs on Mexico’s good and services to the US were dropped.

Stocks (black line in the chart below) are now within spitting distance of our final upside target for this rally: the low- to mid- 2,900s where Junk Bonds (blue line in the chart below) have been signaling that stocks were heading for several weeks now.

However, after that the market reaches those levels, it’s primed for a collapse.

Why?

The Mexico situation was an easy one to resolve… the China situation … not so much.

The markets are still pinning their hopes on a deal being struck between US and China at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan at the end of this month.

This won’t happen… and bonds know it.

Regarding a US/ China Trade deal… if this was coming at the end of the month the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields (red line in the chart below) have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

Which means…

A Crash is coming…

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks caught a bid yesterday, breaking their downtrend (blue lines in the chart below) and closing the gap from mid-May… the S&P 500 is now challenging critical resistance at 2,860 or so (red line in the chart below).

A break higher here would open the door a retest of the all-time highs.

Given the Trump administration’s propensity for suggesting bullish developments at critical moments… I’d wager we’re going to see some kind of “negotiations are going great with Mexico” announcement on Sunday… to insure stocks break that line and move higher.

Both Junk bonds (red line in the chart below) and market breadth (black line in the chart below) suggest the S&P 500 will be making a run to at least the lows 2900s.

It’s ridiculous, I know… but that is the deal for now.

However, after that the market reaches those levels, it’s primed for a collapse.

Why?

Because the big drivers for the stock market are hopes of a trade deal between China and the US at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan… and hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rate this month.

Both of these items will likely disappoint… in a BIG way…

Regarding a US/ China Trade deal… if this was coming at the end of the month the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

In contrast… the Fed cannot cut rates with the S&P 500 within 5% of its all-time highs.

Yes, the Fed is now in the stock market promotion business… but cutting rates with stocks above 2,900?

That seems a stretch.

Which means…

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

As I noted yesterday, this rally looks to have legs… for now.

The stock market broke out of its downtrend yesterday (red lines). It remains below resistance (blue line). A break to the upside here, would open the door to a run to 2,900 on the S&P 500.

Again… this is where credit suggests stocks will move. Junk Bonds hit the equivalent levels of 2,910 on the S&P 500 yesterday.

This again would confirm my thesis that this rally has a week or more to go.

After that, the real action begins.

The real action will consist of stocks giving up all hope of a China/ US trade deal being made…

Right now stocks are pinning their hopes on President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping coming to some kind of agreement at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan on June 28^th-June 29^th.

This won’t happen.

If it was… the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

As I noted yesterday, this rally looks to have legs… for now.

The stock market broke out of its downtrend yesterday (red lines). It remains below resistance (blue line). A break to the upside here, would open the door to a run to 2,900 on the S&P 500.

Again… this is where credit suggests stocks will move. Junk Bonds hit the equivalent levels of 2,910 on the S&P 500 yesterday.

This again would confirm my thesis that this rally has a week or more to go.

After that, the real action begins.

The real action will consist of stocks giving up all hope of a China/ US trade deal being made…

Right now stocks are pinning their hopes on President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping coming to some kind of agreement at the G-20 meeting in Osaka Japan on June 28^th-June 29^th.

This won’t happen.

If it was… the Treasury market would have signaled that we are entering a period of economic stability.

That has not been the case. Treasury yields have continued to drop, telling us that the economy is weakening rapidly… and that NO trade deal is coming.

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks bounced yesterday because:

1)    They were oversold.

2)    The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).

3)    Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”

4)    Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.

The S&P 500 is now within a clear downward channel (red lines). Given how much verbal intervention the Fed is throwing at the markets today we might break out of this channel to the upside and see this move continue for a week or so more.

But I would not count on stocks exceeding critical resistance (purple line) around 2,900.

This is right around where Junk Bonds (blue line in chart below) suggest stocks should be today.

Think of this as the “final gasp” before the plunge.

The markets remain convinced that China and the US will be able to reach a trade deal (they won’t)… and that the Fed will somehow create new bull market by cutting rates (it won’t).

Come the end of June, the markets will have realized NEITHER of these are true. And that’s when stocks will realize what bonds have been saying for weeks… that the economy is moving into a contraction… and it’s going to take a LOT more than rate cuts to turn it around.

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

Stocks bounced yesterday because:

1)    They were oversold.

2)    The markets were at critical support and were due for a bounce (blue line).

3)    Fed officials offered to cut rates if needed to “sustain the expansion.”

4)    Funds were forced to cover their shorts as stocks caught a bid.

The S&P 500 is now within a clear downward channel (red lines). Given how much verbal intervention the Fed is throwing at the markets today we might break out of this channel to the upside and see this move continue for a week or so more.

But I would not count on stocks exceeding critical resistance (purple line) around 2,900.

This is right around where Junk Bonds (blue line in chart below) suggest stocks should be today.

Think of this as the “final gasp” before the plunge.

The markets remain convinced that China and the US will be able to reach a trade deal (they won’t)… and that the Fed will somehow create new bull market by cutting rates (it won’t).

Come the end of June, the markets will have realized NEITHER of these are true. And that’s when stocks will realize what bonds have been saying for weeks… that the economy is moving into a contraction… and it’s going to take a LOT more than rate cuts to turn it around.

A Crash is coming…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.

To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research